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General Discussion / Re: PG&E - Potential Bankruptcy
« Last post by gfp on Today at 06:28:56 AM »
Still curious on KYG.  Is it K as in the common abbreviation for "contract"?

Is this some type of contract that was entered into with misidentified or mistaken identity of the parties? do tell

Do you know what the following means?

Fraudulent Conveyance
Cram Down
Stalking Horse Bid
Pre-petition vs Post Petition
Absolute Priority
First Day Pleading
Sign In Sheet
Disclosure Statement
Bankruptcy Plan
Claim Transfers
Chapter 11 vs Chapter 7

If you don't know most of these terms, maybe you want to stay on the sideline.

Thanks for posting this.

What are KYJ And EC?
Your moniker suits you well!  ;)
General Discussion / Re: AirBnB - likely 2019 IPO
« Last post by gfp on Today at 06:07:04 AM »
I don't even know if the numbers they throw around in public for "revenue" are their revenue cut from fees or the entire value of each booking (the vast majority of which is passed through to hosts).  I am very much looking forward to seeing detailed financial statements.
Fairfax Financial / Fairfax2019
« Last post by Dazel on Today at 06:00:41 AM »

This yearís catalysts

-Fairfax followers are as bearish as I have seen since 2003.

-I expect the best bond manager (Brian Bradstreet) in the world to have filled Fairfax Xmas stockings with corporate and other bonds that got trounced in December. We have seen him move very quickly in the past... 2008 he bought $7b in tax free muniís yielding 7% in less than a month and sold almost the entire US treasury holding that was larger than that at a massive profit during the same time. In the first half of the 2000ís he did very well in corporate bonds where he needed to be nimble before 2007. I am betting on a much higher yield on Fairfax large portfolio which will take operating earnings higher. This and a likely higher shift into higher yielding short term treasuries in the fall will show more of the earnings power of Fairfax as opposed to holding 50% cash holdings.

-Indiaís growth remains the highest in the world and Fairfax is a way to play that

-share buyback will accelerate at these levels albeit not as big as I would like!

- insurance companies will continue to improve

-equity positions are at rock bottom with little downside risk

-as previously discussed I am unhappy with share based awards...these will be disclosed in detail by Prem.

Most importantly this is a solid business with loads of potential that is selling dirt cheap for all of the reasons discussed here. Is it a redemption year for Prem and his team at Fairfax? We will see.

General Discussion / Re: AirBnB - likely 2019 IPO
« Last post by PLynchJr on Today at 05:57:14 AM »
Booking Holdings is at 80B.  Without seeing the numbers...30B doesn't sound crazy to me.
Berkshire Hathaway / Re: What company should Berkshire buy?
« Last post by gfp on Today at 05:50:17 AM »
Yeah, its always going to be tough.  Warren will be the first to advise against selling if a family has a well run, profitable, large business with durable competitive advantage and attractive, predictable long term economics.  Generation changes and liquidity needs (and sometimes capital raising needs) are the main reasons families sell.  The Pritzkers had their spoiled children suing them in a public way - that helped.  More and more, Berkshire will have to turn to public companies because of the need for very large companies to buy.  It's hard to negotiate a purchase of a desirable public company at a sensible price. 

- side note: maybe a side benefit of all the giving pledge networking meetings..  It's tricky to donate at least half your family fortune if you don't create liquidity for the family enterprise
Investment Ideas / Re: AMZN - Inc.
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 05:46:08 AM »
Can someone explain something to me like I'm six years old. I know nothing about advertising ( other than belatedly realizing it's power via the ascendancy of GOOG and FB).

If I'm an advertiser, wouldn't AMZN be a superior site to Google or FB? People are specifically going to AMZN to shop. For a specific product. Wouldn't that be the first choice for ad placement?
I know ad revenue is growing rapidly at AMZN, but why aren't these revenues much bigger already?

For certain things, specifically products, yes, it probably ranks very high. But there are other kinds of advertising. If you sell car insurance or house construction services, then Google is probably the place for you. If you want to do brand advertising, then maybe Facebook/Instagram/Youtube would be the preferred choices, etc.

But it mostly depends on the ROI you're getting, so if you're advertising on a site that isn't ideal, but the auction prices are such that you get a better ROI, then you'll do that too. So maybe Amazon is more logical to advertise a widget, but if Google Adword prices for that keyword are much lower than Amazon, it might still be a better place for you specifically.
Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 05:43:32 AM »
Investment Ideas / Re: PEY.TO - Peyto Exploration & Development
« Last post by petec on Today at 04:33:53 AM »
Peyto have cut capex and the dividend and announced a 3-year plan:

This looks like a smart move to me. They are going to be able to continue to pay down debt while investing in midstream assets such as liquids deep cut capacity (to improve netbacks on liquids-rich gas production) and gas storage (to smooth out the incredible volatility at AECO). They also expect to be able to buy more land at good prices. They seem confident that by the end of the 3-year period local pricing will be heading for a better period on the back of NGTL expansion, local demand growth, and progress on LNG export terminals.

I have expected a dividend cut for a while and I hope it is the last shoe to drop. Of course it is possible commodity prices will be cut futher but at some point that has to impact production and Peyto, as one of the most efficient producers, will be one of the last men standing when the market rebalances.
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