Recent Posts

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General Discussion / Re: Your 10 year annualized returns
« Last post by CorpRaider on Today at 05:10:42 AM »
Pretax ARs: 10 Years
(as of 12/31/16)

VOE - 7.67%
VBR - 7.77%
RPV - 7.69%
VIG - 6.96%
VTI - 7.23%

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General Discussion / Re: TIME TO HIBERNATE FIRST POST
« Last post by CorpRaider on Today at 04:44:11 AM »
I often wonder how much of the motivation for WEB's recommendation to just average into passive index funds is due to a great reduction in the compulsion to try and market time.  It seems likely that a resignation to obtain the market return, whatever that is, would eliminate many of the opportunities to make decisions and improve the dollar weighted returns for the vast majority of investors (I wonder if it would not be of a greater impact than the cost savings/advantage of the low cost index funds).  I suppose if one employs absolute valuation hurdle that would make your decisions systematic, one would potentially be an exception.
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Investment Ideas / Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Last post by Ballinvarosig Investors on Today at 04:18:20 AM »
To put it in perspective, it's now Berkshire's second largest holding  :o
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Investment Ideas / Re: AT-Atlantic Power
« Last post by Sunrider on Today at 04:18:14 AM »
17ish will go to 25 par with a 6% dividend.

For the common - if you keep EV constant and assumed PPAs just roll off as per schedule and otherwise everything gets paid, you end up with ca. $300m ish of cash generated that would go towards debt reduction. That's 300m on top of current market cap of ca. 250 - 300m (depending on what you take into diluted shares). A bit better than pref.

If the company goes belly up, you're one step up in the capital structure but at that point you'd have to be convinced there's enough value in the recovery for anything to go to pref.

Chose your poison. :o


And they are cumulative, right? So unless you think the company goes under, not a bad bet.

Of course, if the company doesn't go under and even just continues to repay its debt it'll be much better to own common  :o

Their preferreds are some of the highest yielding available today. Here's a list I maintain by yield: http://www.conferencecalltranscripts.org/prefs/

I don't really get the logic of owning the common. I feel like the preferreds are the better risk/reward.
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Investment Ideas / Re: AAPL - Apple Inc.
« Last post by mbharadwaj on Today at 04:06:42 AM »
Buffett bought more AAPL since beginning of year:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-cnbc-says-bought-115234917.html

total about 130 million worth $17B.
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"549 key positions in the administration need Senate confirmation. So far, Trump has filled 14"

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/2/21/14672984/trump-transition-slow

Maybe the reason for very measured comments by Mnuchin

FNMA is a tough investment. We're left to reading tea leaves, innuendo...and we have to worry about DJT/Mnuchin being able to field a team.

Chance for a wipe out for us are lowish, but not zero.I think Cherzeca's overall assessment is right - most likely there will be something left over for prefs/common. Given the loss in legal and optical/political leverage, I'd say partial pref right down and govt warrant exercise after the pref conversion (but prior to public offer) are both possible. It can still work out, upside is much less. The timing of the exercise of the govt warrants is meaningful in terms of dilution to common and prefs. Why would we convert to common? Well if not they can continue NWS.

I will hold though.
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General Discussion / Re: TIME TO HIBERNATE FIRST POST
« Last post by thefatbaboon on Today at 12:15:36 AM »
I don't really understand this less/more opportunities thing many investors refer to. 

Personally, I never have many ideas.  Last year I had a couple ideas. The year before I had a couple.  This year i've already had one and hope I'll have one or two more.

Sometimes I have too many ideas like 08,09.  But as I can't guess when massive crashes come I cannot go to cash or raise my hurdle rate in expectation. So my money runs out and the surfeit of ideas is of no use. 

Using simple arithmetic and the historical fact of the great infrequency of severe crashes I can calculate that it is FAR better to assume every year is normal and look for and take my normal couple ideas than it is to prepare for unpredictable crashes.

Obviously if you're not finding ideas then you're not finding ideas - and of course you musn't go buying things you don't want. But the financial world is massive and financial information abundant and I bet there are many good investments out there to be found. 

Unless of course you see an important market crash around the corner?!



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General Discussion / Re: Banana republic
« Last post by rb on February 26, 2017, 10:54:46 PM »
I am disappointed that any one on this site would lack the fundamental knowledge of a tax return. I should ignore the comment as leftist hate instead.
So expecting Donald Trump to follow more than 4 decades of precedent on information disclosure for the office of President is leftist hate. But thinking that Obama's refusal to release his college records (for which there isn't such expectation) is sketchy is totally reasonable. I see your logic there.
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General Discussion / Re: TIME TO HIBERNATE FIRST POST
« Last post by scorpioncapital on February 26, 2017, 10:41:21 PM »
There is a very strong correlation between risk free rates and valuations. If the risk free rate tomorrow jumps to 20%, you can be sure stocks are not going to be trading for an average market P/E of 20 (or 5%) yield. You can just buy the government bond and get 20% , why would you buy a stock yielding 5%? On the other hand, if rates are zero, 5% is looking somewhat better. It looks even better if earnings can grow better in a low-inflation environment than a high one. But I think you have a point that within a certain range, it doesn't matter so much. It's the outliers that are dramatic...like now. Less than 1% for a decade is pretty far out. So is 20%. I believe there was a study published that showed that as rates move up modestly to some neutral level, stocks actually do very well, rising quite a bit more along the way. Beyond this critical level, they start to encounter some turbulence. Where this is is hard to say. I think Buffett in a lecture to students a few months ago said it was 4% and that stocks were extremely cheap if rates don't go above that. So while we don't know what rates will do they have a very big effect on whether stocks will turn out to be very cheap today, or very expensive, or perhaps the most likely case, something in the middle. Btw, Ken Fischer (http://www.financialsense.com/art-hill-technicals-ken-fisher-2017-market-outlook), son of Philip Fischer  , made a good observation about market forecasters. For 2017 he said because the consensus is more of the same, it could very well be + or - quite a bit either way.
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General Discussion / Re: Banana republic
« Last post by Desert_Rat on February 26, 2017, 10:25:52 PM »
I am disappointed that any one on this site would lack the fundamental knowledge of a tax return. I should ignore the comment as leftist hate instead.
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