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Itís a low margin business , so the valuation is fairly low despite the 20B  in revenue. A couple billion are small fries for BRK nowadays.
General Discussion / Re: LEAP Puts on Sub Prime Auto Lenders
« Last post by Cigarbutt on Today at 04:50:53 AM »
The link provided above may no longer be available or may have an availability time-dependent feature for access.

Here's a more generic access to the research with more recent data.

---)Subprime auto loan tracker, 2017 review...14/03/18,88212,88228,88240,88319,88340,88352,88359

---)Subprime auto loan tracker, January 2018...19/03/18
FWIW, WCS oil prices have rallied about 10% in the last two days not that you can tell from the prices of stocks most heavily linked to it!
$2.76 bn was paid for 38.6% of Pilot Travel Centers LLC according to this article on Yahoo Finance via Bloomberg
Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Last post by Dynamic on Today at 02:21:08 AM »
From the first article, it seems that about 13% of the US market cap was in index funds, but that represented about 25% of all funds, since they make up about half of the market cap. This has certainly risen substantially in the last few years and accounts for most of the outflows from managed mutual funds, it would seem from their graphs.

The second article seems to provide a sampling of evidence (I've heard of a couple of the studies like Malkiel's before) that indexes don't cause significant market distortion at current levels. I found it more interesting that some new indexes are created based on backtesting, and that while over 70% outperform in the backtest, only 51% outperform after the creation of the index. Nonetheless, the backtest result seems to draw in AUM, hence the creation of the new index and tracking funds aiming to attract AUM.

It seems Wall Street marketing departments are motivated to create new index products to attract AUM, especially if backtesting provides a favorable 'story' to sell the product.

Nonetheless, a broad market index (rather than sector index etc) seems to be a sensible thing to track.

I dare say there must come a point where excessive indexing as a proportion of all trading volume would remove most of the 'price-setting function' of markets. This could provide opportunities for intrinsic value investors and arbitrageurs to profit from long and short-term discrepancies between price and value, hence providing a degree of limitation to the distortions that it might create. But we're probably still a long way from that point.
Politics / Re: Interesting small business models or examples?
« Last post by LR1400 on March 19, 2018, 08:46:44 PM »
I see these small businesses succeed:

1. Select franchises
2. Scrap metal business
3. Car wash franchises/roll ups
4. Real estate investment/partnerships

I know multiple people worth over $20mill in these sectors and with many over $50milll - $100mill net worth.
So I'm not a legal expert, and I know courts have made time based rulings in the past, but do they know they're not supposed to muck up the ownership structure like that? It's not supposed to matter when someone purchased the stock, all the rights transfer at all times. That's a pretty fundamental underpinning of the stock market, at least that's the general assumption in the broader market place. When they start down that path, it gets extremely complex very quickly.

Your are correct, Blackcoffee. If and when a final plan is developed for ending the GSE conservatorship, the issue of pre- or post-NWS shares will be moot, i.e., of little or no practical value, for the reason that you gave above. For example, see the Moelis proposal, Safety-and-Soundness-Blueprint__1_.pdf at
General Discussion / Re: What are you buying today?
« Last post by Lance on March 19, 2018, 07:54:06 PM »
GME and MO

Investment Ideas / Re: C - Citibank
« Last post by Viking on March 19, 2018, 07:24:04 PM »
I think Joel here was talking about dilution related to share buybacks above BV. [Well, naturally, Joel can speak for himself.]

I was trying to figure out how many shares to model the banks issuing each year and then applying the buyback to the new total shares (otherwise, we overestimate the amount being bought each year).  I think 1% is about right, although the banks seem to be pretty aware of their low share price since the GFC and haven't been too terribly high in recent years.

This is something worth monitoring closely moving forward. If memory serves me correctly, I think WFC issues the most stock as part of compensation of all the big banks; I think it may eat 1/3 of all buybacks they do. JPM is likely next. Then BAC. I think Citi currently seems to get the best bang for its buyback buck. However, my guess is now that earnings are growing at all the big banks we are going to get a big jump in stock awards in the coming years so reported buyback amounts will be diluted to a greater degree moving forward.
General Discussion / Re: If you use Google Finance, now might be the time to...
« Last post by Dog Hill on March 19, 2018, 07:21:06 PM »
I've switched to

I'm not sure what other features they have, but I was only using Google Finance to track a list of tickers I was following, and has a portfolio feature that lets me do the same thing.
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