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Investment Ideas / Re: FTP.to - Fortress Paper
« Last post by sculpin on Today at 05:10:03 PM »
Sculpin:

Yeah ... FTP has done excellent job of mitigating the impact of the duties through:
   a) diversification to non-Chinese customers
   b) production of premium DP that can be sold for more than market rates

That said, the duties put FTP at disadvantage in any negotiation with non-Chinese customers, even with premium DP blends.

Default has been a $25USD/ADMT ish discount to DP prices ... so if they could take that away, and add a bit of a premium back into things, that will increase their margins.

Could be very material. Hoping to hear back from the Company with more details on how they think this may impact them
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Fairfax Financial / Re: FFH vs FIH.U
« Last post by ICUMD on Today at 04:58:01 PM »
Some great points - its true, its hard to fully understand the value of the FIH holdings.  I suppose the proof will be in the performance over the coming quarters.

Still, one of my more confident holdings.

R.
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Investment Ideas / Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Last post by heth247 on Today at 04:53:40 PM »
My alternate 2 cents fwiw:  I think your and the market's focus on current distributions vs. total shareholder return is one of the reasons why the opportunity exists for the equity double+ over the next 18 months.  At $325M EBITDA, FCF to common units is a ~30% yield.  This year, most of that has to go to debt repayment, but whether it's distributions or debt repayments, the value ultimately accrues to unitholders.

+1  ;)
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Investment Ideas / Re: FELP - Foresight Energy
« Last post by Beardog on Today at 04:47:52 PM »
my 2c for what it's worth

FELP stock is inherently illiquid, so price discovery for large blocks is fuzzy. However, price action on the notes gives you an idea of where do you want to be in the capital structure. 13-15% annual return on notes may be better when you know LP is at most 5% return for next 18 months. I think this is being reflected in the equity action. 

My alternate 2 cents fwiw:  I think your and the market's focus on current distributions vs. total shareholder return is one of the reasons why the opportunity exists for the equity double+ over the next 18 months.  At $325M EBITDA, FCF to common units is a ~30% yield.  This year, most of that has to go to debt repayment, but whether it's distributions or debt repayments, the value ultimately accrues to unitholders.
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Thank you for posting this - what a rare treat to hear Jorge Paulo speak
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Investment Ideas / Re: FTP.to - Fortress Paper
« Last post by triedtestedand on Today at 03:45:04 PM »
Sculpin:

Yeah ... FTP has done excellent job of mitigating the impact of the duties through:
   a) diversification to non-Chinese customers
   b) production of premium DP that can be sold for more than market rates

That said, the duties put FTP at disadvantage in any negotiation with non-Chinese customers, even with premium DP blends.

Default has been a $25USD/ADMT ish discount to DP prices ... so if they could take that away, and add a bit of a premium back into things, that will increase their margins.
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Investment Ideas / Re: PGF - Pengrowth Energy
« Last post by sculpin on Today at 03:23:25 PM »
Reawakening the Pengrowth topic. Now that they have materially reduced the debt. Current share price (PGF - TSX - $1.38), 10 year price high $21.56. Could be substantial value here assuming WTI goes >$60 this year. Seymour Schulich seems to think so.


Feb 8/17 Schulich, Seymour Indirect Ownership Public market buy Common Shares $1.693 1,000,000 3.8% 27,000,000
Feb 7/17 Schulich, Seymour Indirect Ownership Public market buy Common Shares $1.651 1,000,000 4.0% 26,000,000
Dec 9/16 Schulich, Seymour Indirect Ownership Public market buy Common Shares $2.13 2,000,000 2.5% 82,000,000


Seymour Schulich through The Schulich Foundation acquired 3,000,000 common shares of
Pengrowth Energy Corporation (“Pengrowth”) on Sept. 9, 2016 through the facilities of the Toronto
Stock Exchange (TSX), and now holds a total of 25,000,000 common shares of Pengrowth. Nevada
Capital Corporation Limited, a wholly owned investment corporation, owns an additional 80,000,000
shares. Mr. Schulich’s aggregate holdings at this date are 105,000,000 common shares or 19.1% of the
outstanding common shares of Pengrowth.


PENGROWTH ENTERS INTO AGREEMENT TO SELL REMAINING SWAN HILLS ASSETS FOR $185 MILLION

2017-04-25 17:25 ET - News Release

Pengrowth Energy Corp. has entered into an agreement for the sale of the remaining portion of its Swan Hills assets in north-central Alberta for total cash consideration of $185-million, subject to customary closing conditions and adjustments.

The divested assets generated average daily production of approximately 5,150 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe per day) (weighted approximately 94 per cent toward liquids) during the fourth quarter of 2016 and had proved plus probable reserves of 21.0 million boe assigned to them as at Dec. 31, 2016, according to the independent reserve evaluators GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd.

This transaction essentially completes Pengrowth's exit from the Swan Hills area and provides the company with additional financial flexibility to further reduce indebtedness. When combined with the $522-million of proceeds from the previously announced Lindbergh GORR, Swan Hills and Bernadet asset sales, the $185-million of proceeds from this sale of the remaining Swan Hills assets result in total disposition proceeds of $707-million to date in 2017.
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I think society would actually function better with unconventionals (I use that in a frugal way).

We'd have less pollution, less war, less waste, etc. Sure, we may not have quite the level of innovation but we also wouldn't have the amount of waste.
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Investment Ideas / Re: HCG.to - Home Capital Group
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 02:36:56 PM »
Also looks like Ratehub.ca had stopped listing Oaken (HCG) GICs.

Best not to over-react. Oaken has been raising rates during this crisis. Most likely explanation is that Ratehub was simply updating with the rates. Oaken is back on Ratehub now.

In the current fluid environment, I thought it was material that they were gone. Obviously it's also material that they are back, so thanks for posting.

I think it probably says something that they have to offer much higher rates than others. Time will tell, I suppose.

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Great replies so far. Thanks for the post.

To ask the question a different way, assuming views on conservatism, subpar financial education, more family offices per capita (data?) may be considered subjective, are there any factual reasons why Canadian HF isn't as vibrant as US? i.e. regulatory hurdles to setting up or tax reasons? I was listening to a Mohnish Pabrai talk the other day and he made a comment about the merits of not having to be SEC-registered (in terms of ability to focus on finding bargains, lower costs etc). Perhaps similar exemptions are unavailable in Canada?
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