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He is wildly overoptimistic. 

I have yet to have someone show me how autonomous vehicles are going to safe from hacking, or their equivalent of the blue screen of death, or in the case of my Ipad, the assorted screen freezes, and random crashes. 

The notion of ride sharing services operating in rural and exhurban areas is completely ludicrous.  He has no clue how people live and work in those environments. 

i.e. Repairing a water heater this winter at my cottage:  I had to drive down a dirt road four times one day to get parts at the nearby home hardware.  I had to go and look at the parts shelf each time to see what would work best.  And I am going to call a ride share program each time.  Yeah, right. 

File this whole report in the "I will believe it when I see it file".

Here's a thought experiment: Imagine having to find an investment without using any company filings. How would you do it? Where would you look first? How accurate do you think you would be, versus if you had used all company filings.

Sometimes I think having all these filings at our fingertips makes us lazy and therefore ignore non-company sources of information that may be more important or insightful.

I like this idea and will provide tangible examples, as long as I can use non-company public information. 

1) Bell Canada: Largest phone company and internet provider in Canada.  Has huge penetration, and raises its dividend regularly, and has for 100 years.  I am a customer and hate paying the huge phone bills but do so anyway.  I am also a shareholder.

2) Enbridge: One of largest nat. gas/oil pipers in NA.  Has raised dividend for 100 years, nearly every year.  Business protected by regulatory hurdles.  Nat. Gas will be used for heating and power generation for decades going forward.  Customer and shareholder. 

3) Canadian Banks: I, and everyone else in Canada are customers.  They are protected by regulations and agreements with government.  Before I buy anymore shares I want to see a mortgage correction. 

Its not that difficult.  What it really comes down to is market timing.  If one doesn't like market timing you can dollar cost average into moat companies and never read a single financial report. 

I am willing to bet that if one started investing in RY, and TD, at a rate of 1000 per month, in 15 years you will have outperformed the S&P by at least a small margin.  And this assumes riding through a housing crash in Canada, along the way. 
Investment Ideas / Re: SIRI - Sirius XM Radio
« Last post by jgyetzer on Today at 05:11:10 AM »
How much of the float is actually left available with the Liberty and Berkshire stakes?
I bet the presentations about nuclear power in the 50's looked the same.

Some changes occur faster than anyone expects, and some slower. Sheba has cherry picked examples. I also think that his cost estimates for electric vehicles (repair costs etc) as well as for current vehicles are way off, just to pick some details.

Autonomous driving, unlike break-even fusion power, is already possible today.  The only thing standing in its way now is implementation, costs, and regulations.   It isn't like fusion in the 1950's, it is already much further along than fusion still is in 2017.
I bet the presentations about nuclear power in the 50's looked the same.

Some changes occur faster than anyone expects, and some slower. Sheba has cherry picked examples. I also think that his cost estimates for electric vehicles (repair costs etc) as well as for current vehicles are way off, just to pick some details.
Observations from 2015 The Howard Hughes Corp. (HHC) CEO Letter [3/24/2016]

Does anyone have any more background on who value seeker is?

He is on fintwit you can try dm him.
Investment Ideas / Re: TGNA - Tegna Inc
« Last post by JayGatsby on Today at 12:51:20 AM »
Any thoughts on the valuation of CARS?
Not really. The flat revenue forecast for 2017 is fairly underwhelming. One thought is to short Auto Trader (AUTO) at 22x EBITDA in a pair trade. AUTO trades in London, potentially making it more difficult to short.
General Discussion / Re: Retail Clothiers (a Bombed out Sector?)
« Last post by ccplz on May 22, 2017, 11:17:59 PM »
I've started looking at the sector lately and have on a list some of the same companies others have. BKE, GES, and RL.  A couple that hasn't been mentioned yet that I'm trying to figure out is JCP and the head scratcher ASNA

I don't feel ASNA is a buy yet due to lowered guidance earlier this week.  It looks like their debt is very manageable since the bulk of the debt due to the Ann Taylor purchase a couple of years ago isn't due until 2021 I believe. Cash flows seemed very reasonable to service the debt and payoff the debt coming due until then.  Not sure now how cash flow will look like with the revision.  Would not be surprised if some of the Ann Taylor purchas it written off.  On the bright side they are working on their issues trying to make the move to omni channel for all store. 

Also, from asking around some of the customers are very loyal particularly with Lane.  Maybe it's just my age group but most people I talk to go into the stores to try things on and make sure the sizes are right.  Most of them will purchase in the store.  Some will order online from the same store once they are comfortable with the sizing.

ASNA equity is a 0.


Top-line is deteriorating due to full penetration of portfolio of tired brands, combined Nov / Dec comps declined 4.4% (however they had to increase promotions to drive comps) with pre-Christmas comps (i.e. first three weeks of Dec) down 10-17%
Profitability is now concentrated in one brand (maurices, ~62% of profitability) which has reached penetration and as the brand moves online, will face significant competition from ecommerce players
Justice, historically the Companyís second PNL generator, has collapsed under increased competition and a turnaround is unlikely given pricing pressure and erosion of store-base competitive advantage
All of ASNAís other brands are fully penetrated and contribute limited profitability
Significant actual and implied leverage creates a very levered entity that drives significant decremental margins on small downward changes in sales (and vice-versa)
Company put on significant leverage for its last acquisition and currently sits on $2B leverage on $580M of EBITDA (i.e. 3x+) which is a lot for a brick-and-mortar retailer, most of the public comps donít even have debt (with far better top-line trends)
In addition, ASNA has 4 concepts across 750+ stores which creates structural issues in world increasingly shifting to e-commerce
Assumed lease payments of this $750M capitalized at 10x imply leverage of 5.5x+
This is an overleveraged retailer with tired brands in structural decline that could be facing negative cash flow in 2-3 years - just screams structural short.

Regarding the leverage, 1.5 billion is not due until 2022.  That is a ways off before they even have to really worry about the balloon payment.  They are currently working in revamping the company and cutting the expenses. 

The entire retail sector is in the toilet and driving down sales as companies struggling to survive are cutting prices to get people in the store.  Those that can weather the storm will pick up a lot of new business as the weaker ones go out of business.  The term loan has been prepaid in that  another payment is not due until May 2018 (I believe).  This gives them time to implement "Change for Growth".  They have quite a few levers that can be pulled to stay afloat until better times come.  Despite what others would have people think, the entire country is not going to shift to only ecommerce.

Am I saying it's a buy right now?  No, for one the price is higher then I want to pay relative to valuation.  They have some goodwill write offs coming up.  can also think of a couple other things that need to be done.  Hopefully on the earnings release a better picture will be painted on their position for the rest of the year.  I think it's very premature to call the equity a 0 at this point in time.

Ok. What levers?

The equity is a 0.
Investment Ideas / Re: SIRI - Sirius XM Radio
« Last post by thefatbaboon on May 22, 2017, 10:26:48 PM »
Berkshire/Weschler adding more shares yesterday again!

And again...

Anyone have an idea what Damodaran's returns have been?
I find him to be a good professor when I watch his courses but I'm wondering if he also walks the walk.
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