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Investment Ideas / Re: REZT - Rezidor Hotel Group
« Last post by dontdodebt on Today at 12:37:16 AM »
Ok. "Good" sign then.

Big liquidty problem it seems but the hypothesis about a future bid is not as far fetched.
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Politics / Re: Deliberately Fraudulent News
« Last post by DTEJD1997 on December 17, 2017, 10:57:56 PM »
So, during the days of Nixon as President, am sure you would have said the Washington Post reporters were "lost" too or as Gregmal says "sub-par". Just like Trump who cannot stand any form of criticism or correction of misleading statements, says it's "fake news".
You are not fooling the American general public who are starting to catch on to your nonsense.
The press back in the early 70's had a LOT more experience, integrity, work ethic and intelligence than it does now.  It was a serious business back then.  Now, not so much.

Perfect example...back in the 70's and early 80's, 60 Minutes was a heavy hitting news program....now?  it is a shadow of it's former self.

As I have stated before...this is really only tangentially a "right vs. left" thing. 

When the press is lazy, stupid and making stuff up, who does is it help?  Certainly not the Democrats or the left...certainly not the right wing either...It weakens the citizen's check on the government/authority and undermines society.

The press in America (generally speaking) has been getting lazy for 25+ years? 

As for getting more stupider, that goes hand in hand with laziness and the decline in academic institutions.

As for just reporting blatantly false/misleading stuff, that is a relatively recent event.

Of course, there are some beacons of hope.  The WSJ has consistently been pretty good...but how many people actively read that in America?  1 or 2 percent of society? 

The crazy thing is that the news in America did themselves in.  It did not have to be this way!



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Investment Ideas / Re: LRE.L - Lancashire Holdings Ltd
« Last post by twacowfca on December 17, 2017, 10:42:22 PM »
Lancashire’s potential exceptional value is hiding in plain sight.

the insured industry losses from the HIM trio of hurricanes exceeds any modeled loss adjusted for current property values after the hypothetical impact of any hurricane season going back to the 1880’s.

The projected hit to LRE is well within their modeled parameters, about 12% of BV,  leaving them in good shape to hold their current ratings and take advantage of opportunities. Rates should firm up nicely with alternative capital trapped in cat bonds awaiting a reckoning that will take months to sort out.

Their big almost risk free way to make money should be their unique Kinesis vehicle. In the past they have speculated that they could write as much as $2 billion dollars through Kinesis after a major loss season. That’s with the outside investors they have already cultivated footing the bill as LRE collects fees and commissions while others take the risk.

That would be about seven times what they have written through Kinesis in recent years.



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Investment Ideas / Re: VIPS - Vipshop Holdings
« Last post by LightWhale on December 17, 2017, 09:29:48 PM »
Tencent and JD.com Investing in VIPS at a price equivalent to 13.08 USD a share, a 55% premium:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-18/tencent-jd-to-invest-863-million-in-online-retailer-vipshop
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General Discussion / Re: Druckenmiller on CNBC
« Last post by randomep on December 17, 2017, 08:58:11 PM »

My thinking regarding innovation/productivity gains is not an academic exercise, but a very practical one. I want to know if we are growing our wealth in real terms. If we truly are growing our wealth in real terms, then it must go to someone. And I want to grab as much as possible through investments. If not then all this QE and low interest rates is creating a bubble that will end badly because ultimately investing is a zero sum game and our gains will have to be given back.

If we aren't going to grow wealth, then ya...... a third -50% crash in my investing lifetime is probably going to happen.
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General Discussion / Grantham on Emerging Markets and Career Risk
« Last post by NomadicRiley on December 17, 2017, 08:17:58 PM »
(2nd article in the PDF)

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=48

Anyone know what GMO uses as their index/fund/etf for "Emerging Markets Value"?
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General Discussion / Amazon/ Google to manage money?
« Last post by frugalchief on December 17, 2017, 07:15:46 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-13/hey-google-am-i-diversified-why-fidelity-fears-silicon-valley

Millennial's would eat this up if Alexa makes it easy.  We don't like meeting with advisors or spending time like that, so why not?! LOL  :o
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General Discussion / Re: Druckenmiller on CNBC
« Last post by HJ on December 17, 2017, 05:48:16 PM »
GDP numbers and productivity numbers are all macroeconomic estimates which are terribly imperfect.  They measure things that sometimes are only useful to economists themselves(and politicians that they work for).  The rest of us are only told that they are important statistics.  They don't necessarily correspond to human progress, or even their trajectory doesn't necessarily measure the trajectory of human progress. 

Take the invention of printing press, there's no question it was, over time, an incredibly powerful and important invention to humanity.  But where is that in GDP numbers around the time they were invented (if any of the economists were ever to attempt to venture an estimation for that period of time using their modern day techniques)?  Take something like the wide adoption of wireless communication, it may not be on par with the invention of printing press, but there's no question that it represents important progress and over time betters humanity.  Plus, as some have pointed out, these may not have necessarily showed up in US or developed market GDP. 

But I am of a firm belief that the advancement in communications technology, the spread of internet, availability of cheap computing power to every person in whatever form it takes, all represent very important innovations to humanity that somehow economists will prove incapable of measuring.   And politicians, other than Al Gore, won't attempt to take credit for. 
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General Discussion / Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Last post by emily on December 17, 2017, 04:36:26 PM »
@Flynnstone5 , how does this analysis change once Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lose a lot of money in DTA at the end of the year?

If outstanding prf'd is $19B and was converted to common at 2.5 common/prfd (seems reasonable using par), would I be correct in estimating new common to be approximately 1.8B shares?

Trying to mull some ideas. If above is correct and I add to existing, then I'm at 3B shares common outstanding. Gov adjusts warrants to 2B shares, raises exercise price to $10 - $15?

Between retained earnings, maybe 10% new prfd issuance, capital up to the new exercise price -  is it not realistic to see Fannie Mae recapped in 3-4 years, commons at $30 and gov makes $30-$40B?

I may be totally wrong here so apologies if simply incorrect. I'm surprised that given so many experts in finance/restructuring, there are so few ideas put forth anywhere as to workable solutions. Many unknowns, but you would think it has to be possible to get some sort of clearer picture with assumptions of preserving, recapping, shareholder rights, settlement of some sort and gov maintaining some benefit aside from strengthening housing.
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Investment Ideas / Re: RTK - Rentech Inc
« Last post by sabeverly on December 17, 2017, 04:09:38 PM »
So is Rentech going to zero ????
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