Recent Posts

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Investment Ideas / Re: SBGI - Sinclair Broadcasting Group
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 07:30:40 AM »
^ The chinese government can within China, with the great firewall. FB has a disproportionataley large market share in social media, but this is hardly a monopoly in terms of information and I really wonder about the folks who get their news from there.
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Investment Ideas / Re: BAM - Brookfield Asset Management
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 07:27:15 AM »
What do others pay for BAM's Foreign Security Withholding on Stock Dividends??

I have very limited knowledge of this topic

Should be 15% in a taxable account in the US and zero in an IRA. At least that’s how ENb works for me and I don’t see why BAM should be any different. Anyways, BAM dividend yield is so low, they it hardly matters.
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General Discussion / Re: The Fed and interest rates
« Last post by Cigarbutt on Today at 06:59:26 AM »
Cigarbutt,
What I meant when I said “lenders” is something simpler. If I have a pile of cash now I can lend it to the US treasury for 3 months and earn a >2% yield. 5 or 6 years ago I could only get perhaps 0.2%. And I, as a lender, am benefiting from that change.
With banks it’s more complicated because they are both lenders (by making loans) and borrowers (by taking deposits) at the same time. You’re right that it’s not so easy to predict what will happen to their profitability as the Fed further raises rates.
Hoping for a diversity of opinions and will keep the reply short.

Your simplified answer is at the heart of the issue as I find that the rule for every lender, there must be a borrower has been blurred IMO by what, in the end, could be called black box economics, which is a layer of complexity above voodoo. Looking for perspective and I'm a slow learner as am still trying to fully understand the circumstances that led to the TARP program and maybe simply need to move on. All I know is that Mr. Powell and his team will try to move cautiously and without disruption and it is impossible to "predict" what will happen but it will certainly be interesting to watch.

When everything is said and done, this may all come down to instinct.
I suspect that George W. Bush, who often used instinct for decisions, did not go into the details of the the controversial bail out but, after the audience with the father, the son and the holy ghost, came out with the right solution: "If money doesn't loosen up, this sucker will go down". Under present circumstances, hard to figure out what he would say but it may have sounded like: "Like it or not, it's time to bite the bullet."
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Investment Ideas / Re: BAM - Brookfield Asset Management
« Last post by chrispy on Today at 06:58:16 AM »
The EV comment was well taken and not something I had considered in judging its evaluation.

My view is that if one is to invest in Brookfield, BAM is a must own. But, due to Mr market, one can find bargains here and there in the LPs. For instance BIP dropped quite a bit and I believe was at a great price in the high 30s. I also share the view that others have the BIP is a compounder. BBU may also be and currently has very little following relative to the others (also low volume, don't know if that means anything)
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Investment Ideas / Re: SBGI - Sinclair Broadcasting Group
« Last post by DooDiligence on Today at 06:56:27 AM »
A travesty for humans interested in the truth.
Harrison Bergeron, coming soon, to a country near you.

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"Profit maximization has never been the sole point of communications policy in the United States. Under the Communications Act of 1934 (and its 1927 predecessor and its 1996 successor), the FCC is charged with making effective use of spectrum space by means of allocation to broadcasting and other services. This allocation is performed to maximize “the public interest, convenience, or necessity.” Though expressed in different ways over the years, the FCC has clearly held that the “best” broadcast station is locally owned and operated. Such ownership was deemed in the public interest, as it would presumably be closer to local needs and concerns, and thus the station would more adequately reflect and project that community than some absentee-owned operation or central network." (Gomery)

"The 1996 act removed the numeric cap on the number of stations a broadcast network could own, replacing it with language that an individual, company, or corporation could own broadcast television stations that reached up to 35% of households in the United States (UHF stations counted half their actual reach for this limitation calculation). The act also removed the long-standing ban on joint radio-broadcast TV ownership in the same market." (Gomery)

"Since 1995 the number of entities owning commercial TV stations has dropped by 40%. Newspaper ownership has rapidly consolidated as well. For example, Gannett, after a multi-billion dollar spate of acquisitions in 2000, grew from 74 daily newspapers to 99, and it operates as a local monopoly in each of these markets. Gannett now produces one out of every seven newspapers sold in the United States. Three huge chains, Gannett, Knight Ridder, and the Tribune Company, together account for a quarter of all the daily newspaper circulation in the nation."

Gomery, Douglas. "FCC's Newspaper-Broadcast Cross Ownership Rule", Economic Policy Institute, 2002, https://www.epi.org/publication/books_cross-ownership/

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Thank the gods that nobody can control the internet, right?
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Investment Ideas / Re: SHLD - Sears
« Last post by Value^2 on Today at 06:45:33 AM »


I convinced myself yesterday that retail bond and shareholders didn't stand a chance here, but I'll monitor the bankruptcy for a hint on the 2018 secured bonds.

Then I read your post and it's positive. Where did you get the info? I can't find anything on the sec.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1310067/000119312518300694/0001193125-18-300694-index.htm

I think i mislead you, It's the amount how much he'd own if he converted.  ;D  i should've read footnotes before posting.
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Investment Ideas / Re: BAM - Brookfield Asset Management
« Last post by ValueMaven on Today at 06:36:44 AM »
What do others pay for BAM's Foreign Security Withholding on Stock Dividends??

I have very limited knowledge of this topic
8
Investment Ideas / Re: BAM - Brookfield Asset Management
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 05:44:54 AM »
Good point about EV.

With regards to issuing debt or equity and how the deals work out, is that not true for most companies? BBU is the only LP who's kickback to BAM is based on share price. It seems like that aligns their interest better with common shareholders.

I appreciate the feedback.

Yes, it is absolutely true that it all depends on the quality of deals and how the assets acquired are managed. I just wanted to point out the EV and the fact that funds need to be raised , because I think mentioning $1B in EBITDA and  $5.2B in market cap just by itself is misleading.

I mentioned this before, but I believe the real entity to own is BAM, because they can “skim the top” without providing capital. That’s the beauty of the GP/ LP structure.
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Investment Ideas / Re: KCLI - Kansas City Life Insurance Co
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 05:29:48 AM »

I think NWLI is a better company than KCLI and it deserves a higher  multiple. I owned NWLI st around 35% of book and sold for a little more than 50% book - too early obviously.

When did you own NWLI at 35% of book? I sold them this summer at $319 a share. I notice that they have drifted down towards $280 recently and on a book value of $507 that looks pretty good to me. Just wish the family would actually do something to close the discount. I held the stock for 6 years, it was good to me but man closing that discount somehow would be nice...

I believe it was in the 2011/2012 timeframe. At that point, NWLI was trading quite a bit below 50% of book. I bought in the $130-135 range.
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