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Investment Ideas / Re: CHTR - Charter Communications
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 06:38:46 AM »
It seems to me the mobile phone is the only additional element here. At home or work you would be able to use either when 5G is out...On the move you could use 5G...You wouldn't need 2 services. So maybe instead of buying all this stock back, cable should figure out how they will keep the customer on the road and at home, either via mobile partnership or buying a 5G network. It will cost alot of money so they will need to build a war chest.

Yeah, there are a lot of questions regarding 5G. This "The Power of Millimeter Wave | Verizon" video is  pretty cool and it's less than 3 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnyG2bliKCs&feature=youtu.be

Nice marketing video. I like when the guy does the non-sequitur: "it's really high frequency so everybody thinks it doesn't go very far but it's a really big pipe and so that's what allows you to gain the superfast speeds".

A demo through a window and a plywood wall isn't that impressive, and obviously they only show the tests that worked. In the rest world, the problem is when you try to have lots and lots of people on the same cells in very variable conditions (thicker walls, brick walls, stone walls, large growing trees, people in basements, etc). And how are they going to do the backhaul from all these cells on top of lamposts and telephone poles? They're running run fiber to all of them to provide those multi-gigabit pipes?

Seems to me like this is basically like doing cable/fiber overbuild, and the economics of that usually aren't very good.
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Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 06:28:28 AM »
The thing is not that he's explaining things to a public that is ignorant of such things as an educator. He's not saying that the TBM is electric. He's saying that they've made the TBM electric. Then there's all that nonsense about diesel and ventilation, power, batteries, etc. What he's trying to do is create a false narrative in order to give the impression that his company engineered huge efficiencies over current processes implying that he be able to deliver the output for a much lower cost. Which is flat out untrue. You can wrap it up and tie it with whichever color ribbon you want. But that is the definition of 100% pure grade bullshit.

Around 14:20 he says that all boring machines are electric. Doesn't look like he's saying that others aren't.

You know what's easier to predict than the future? The past. I'm a patient guy. I'll just wait and see if when they come out with their internally designed boring machine, if it does better than what has come before, and if so, by how much.

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People have been digging tunnels for transportation under cities for generations. They're called subways. Yes digging those tunnels costs a huge amount of money. Musk's tunnels will too. The difference is that mere mortals need to have a business case and a budget before endeavoring to do so. Musk doesn't need to because he can take a pile of money and set it on fire. Apparently it's his superpower.

I might not know much about tunnel digging, but I can do a bit of pattern recognition, and this is exactly what people said about Tesla and SpaceX just a few short years ago. So excuse me if the argument "others have done it and it's as good as it gets" doesn't resonate completely.

No new automotive startups in decades, impossible for a small company to make a car that people will buy at what it'll cost, the competition has decades of engineering and design experience, any new car will look and drive like crap, electric cars are golf carts and will have worse performance, where will you charge them on long trips? You'll never get enough range! We've been making rockets since the V2s and thousands of top engineers - literally rocket scientists - at NASA and ESA and private contractors have spent billions working on this, not to mention all the military funding for ICBMs, they have looked at reusable rockets and low cost rockets already and studied them from all angles, what's Musk going to do that they can't with fewer resources and no background in rockets and no government backers and look his rockets are blowing up one after the other.. He's just some internet guy, what does he know about any of this?

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Also Tesla is not some huge automotive success that upended the automotive business with a superior model. They have a tiny market share and can't even fulfill the demand for that. They're only success is getting a high market valuation - that's a very different thing. For comparison, Walmart was a huge retail success that upended the retail business with a superior model. Wherever Walmart went, they took market share. A lot of market share. They also had merchandise on their shelves and made money.

This shows how much you know. I've been following EVs on an almost daily basis for close to 20 years, and Tesla was the iPhone moment for the industry. Its influence is way outsized to its market share (mindshare, if you will). You can look at smartphones before and after the iPhone, and sure, with enough time maybe we'd have gotten to something pretty similar to the modern smartphone without it, but there's something that happened that changed everyone's perception, that catalyzed everybody else to throw away their previous plans and start building from that template, and it made things happen much faster than they otherwise would have (even Bob Lutz said that he could never have gotten GM to start developing PHEVs and EVs without Tesla). Basically all the EV that you're going to see come out from everybody in the industry are happening now and are specced the way they are because of Tesla.

Personally, I don't give a crap about their market cap or profits or whatever, and it's definitely down on the list of priorities for Musk. If he cared about that, he'd go much slower and just slowly expand out of the high-end luxury-performance-EV niche and be nicely profitable (well, if he cared about money, he'd have gone into any other industry than these). But he cares about the tech and changing the status quo, so he has to build the biggest battery factory in the world, and then build more of those, and them try to make a model of EV that can be made by the hundreds of thousands, and build semis and crossover SUVs, etc, as fast as possible within a few years. That's kind of hard to do, so yeah, the road's pretty bumpy, and there's a good chance he'll fail. Here again, time will tell if he pulls it off. I don't have a horse in this race financially, but I want to see EVs replace ICEs as fast as possible, not over decades as the legacy automakers would've liked to see to avoid cannibalizing their existing sales and obsoleting their existing investments in ICE production.

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But coming back to digging tunnels. Here's a question for you. That presentation video was about 1 hour long. You've obviously watched it. After you got push back on this here, did you go and spend at least an hour doing independent research on the physics, engineering, and operations of digging tunnels?

No. I'm not that interested in it, frankly. It's a bit boring (har har). Just like it doesn't look like you've looked much into EVs or rockets. But we don't have to know about everything, and I don't have to try to predict things when I don't have a horse in the race. I'll just wait and see what happens, and we'll see if it's all just BS and they can't improve on tunnel digging, or if they can actually make it faster and cheaper and more useful for society, and if their vision influences others to try new cool things.

Personally, I don't really believe in all the glossy CGI presentations about everybody zooming around for a dollar and all that. But I like people with ambitious vision who actually work on improving things, and whether they succeed entirely or just a little, at least they moved things forward and didn't just care about building another social media app or going into finance and making billions by shuffling money around to very little societal use. I'll take 10 more Elon Musk over all the CEOs of nicely stable and profitable aerospace or automotive companies, or tunnel boring companies, that we have now.
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Investment Ideas / Re: SHLD - Sears
« Last post by BargainValueHunter on Today at 06:24:09 AM »
A question for those of you who are still bullish on Sears Holdings...

Lampert has made dozens of moves over the last 8 years that have freed up capital or injected capital into the operating cash flow but the burning of that cash has continued unabated. There are no signs that cash burn will become less of a problem in the future.

What does it matter if cash is being unlocked when operations will certainly burn the cash before anything resembling a profit is generated?
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-22/groundhog-day-at-fannie-freddie-where-the-fix-is-always-tomorrow

Like clockwork. Here is the kill-the-rally article we were all expecting. Joe Light's timing is always marvelous. Or is it Treasury's?
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Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by bobp on Today at 06:09:23 AM »
Edmunds: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2017/long-term-road-test/2017-tesla-model-3-monthly-update-for-april-2018.html

Wow, That's worse than the CR review.

That computer screen in my face would annoy the hell out of me. I'm obviously an old fart and have no understanding of consumer preferences, but I don't get why a touch screen works better than a knob to change my radio station. Yeah, I still listen to radio. It seems to me that the screen is dangerous. And if I'm not at my computer, I don't want it in front of me bolted on to my dasboard.

Had to get my 2 cents in.


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Investment Ideas / Re: SHLD - Sears
« Last post by doughishere on Today at 06:04:51 AM »
Can these 13 props that are up for auction fetch $100mm at the end of the month?
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General Discussion / Re: Rent vs Buy Decision
« Last post by tombgrt on Today at 05:49:22 AM »
Although I do like my area and could see myself spending the next decade here. Although if I did get married in the next 5-10 years realistically I would have to upgrade to a bigger place. But that would be easier to do if I had some equity in an existing property.
 

Don't forget you are incurring some non-recoupable costs by buying a starter home and selling a few years later. In Belgium this is around 10% + redecorating costs etc. so look at your own situation and odds of finding someone / wanting a bigger place.

putting cost (both direct and opportunity) considerations aside, some people really want to be owners, and some people are just fine being renters, psychologically.  which are you?

And some people are idiots.  :P Why is owning (read: renting money) never seen as the riskier commitment in the short and medium term? You'd think 2006-2009 would have learned people something. You are making serious investments (costs, upgrades, redecorations, ...) into something that is collateral for some serious debt overhang. You better make sure you can pay it off. Obviously over the long and very long term, renting a home is generally riskier for your financial well-being.

Buy versus rent is not a numbers decision, and it will be decided by your significant other.

Put aside the spreadsheets.



Hmm, let's make the biggest financial decision of our lives all about emotions, why not. Happy wife, happy life; right?  :P Bit tongue-in-cheeck as you raised some good points, SD. Sadly some people would throw all rationality overboard to be able to say they are home-owners.

Been together with my SO for 5 years and she understands the math behind renting vs owning. No need to brush these things aside because you have a SO or even a family. But obviously the feeling of stability has it's value for many as well. I can understand that but it can't come at all costs.
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Investment Ideas / Re: SHLD - Sears
« Last post by doughishere on Today at 05:32:04 AM »
Do you actually believe in this short squeeze theory? Itís been around for awhile. Even before Bruce was selling and still supposedly still is.

Some people I talk to think itís possible others not. I personally donít buy yeah buying the bonds back in March was the thing to do.

I do agree with you that this should be looked at again. I just think itís more likely that it wil continues to potato even with all the closings this summer. I think they report this week.

Whatís up with the pension now? Didnít they unload a good chunk of it off to metlife.
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