Recent Posts

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 10
Buying now would not work if this scenario is real. You already know of NWS, so buying pre NWS shares ? How would you buy them? privately? I thought I saw Berkley Insurance name somewhere and they still owe a chunk and bought in 2005. There is some relationship between Berkeley and Fairlhome where Fairlhome may have bought from Berkley. I looked up on Google and it is all beyond my level to understanding.

"Berkley Insurance Company has continuously owned Fannie preferred shares since January 2005 and Freddie preferred shares since December 2009, and it had a reasonable expectation when it acquired its shares that a new class of securities in the Companies (or an amendment to an existing class of securities) would not wipe out its shares"

Do we know which hedge fund or mutual fund owns pre NWS preferred shares? Would appreciate the reply and how I can verify that. Have been considering buying more pre NWS preferreds this quarter. TIA

So I'm not a legal expert, and I know courts have made time based rulings in the past, but do they know they're not supposed to muck up the ownership structure like that? It's not supposed to matter when someone purchased the stock, all the rights transfer at all times. That's a pretty fundamental underpinning of the stock market, at least that's the general assumption in the broader market place. When they start down that path, it gets extremely complex very quickly. 
Investment Ideas / Re: Acorn Energy (ACFN)
« Last post by knight933 on Today at 07:10:14 AM »
For what it’s worth, I think the Price to Sales ratio is more of a starting point than something I think can be actually predicted/analyzed with any reasonable accuracy. If anyone has any thoughts on how they think about Price/Sales ratios, I would be curious to hear them, but I personally do not put much weight on them outside of ‘screening’ for ideas on which I will/should do more work. 

Once ACFN’s OmniMetrix unit starts producing profits, which I again what to highlight the inflection is coming this year, then gradually over time the P/S discount will narrow as the market slowly transitions to valuing it based on earnings.

But we will have a better look at this company once they file the 10K by March 31st, which is soon, so hence why I think the idea is very actionable right now.
Its interesting, I see two stocks on my screen that are up today, with everything else down slightly:  Colgate Palmolive and Domino's Pizza.  Both of which I could envision 3G bidding for.

Anyone know why CL is up today?  I didn't see any news but maybe someone wrote it up over the weekend?

edit:  I guess UK Sunday Times speculated that Unilever might merge with them
Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Semper Augustus letter
« Last post by Cigarbutt on Today at 06:40:57 AM »
"I admit I'm struggling to see how it's indexing rather than just the general flow of capital into funds of all kinds, that is driving the concentration of gains into a narrow range of large-caps."
I actually agree with that statement.
My assessment is that mostly the shift to index funds can be explained by the move away from mutual funds and even if index funds are passively managed, the underlying investor population, in essence, has a passive mindset.
I submit though that there may be pockets of ETFs where this does not apply: specialized, leveraged and synthetic ETFs. These funds may attract a momentum crowd and liquidity issues with precipitated attempts at price discovery have not been tested (remember how that worked out with packaged real estate subprimes securities).
IMO the infatuation with indexing is simply part of the larger picture and is based on momentum (may work in both directions as markets don't usually follow a straight line).
Isaac Newton would have said: "what goes up must come down" but markets tend to go up and his investment record is not impeccable.

I thought you would be the type to be interested in the following:

If pressed for time,
-the first link shows a nice graph (exhibit 4, page 6).
-the second link refers to well done specific studies evaluating the relevant underlying questions.

Apparently, according to Mr. Bogle, the father of indexing, as long as 25% of funds are actively managed, we're probably OK.
I wonder if that number has a margin of safety.
General Discussion / Re: Trump doing a huge favor to Canada
« Last post by scorpioncapital on Today at 06:09:13 AM »
Reminds me of that story Zeno's paradox, if you have to get from A to B and cover half the distance, and half the distance again you won't be able to do it. Of course you just move from A to B in reality. Countries that have silly ideals or philosophies (usually socialist ones - and a specific flavour of it) tend to really shoot themselves in the foot with red tape and other hindrances to action.
General Discussion / Re: Trump doing a huge favor to Canada
« Last post by Cardboard on Today at 06:05:44 AM »

CN and CP just milk the system: lowest capacity possible, only keep busy routes, raise rates. Easy when you are a monopoly.

Maybe that our leaders should call the President of the Republic of Congo to figure out how to move goods out of the country?

After all, is there a more "landlocked" country than Congo? Yet, they still figure out to ship the vast majority of their copper and cobalt across the world. And no, they don't rely on Uganda or Zambia to consume most of it...

Yet we sit on 3 oceans and no need to cross any country to access sea water. Simply amazing!

General Discussion / Re: LEAP Puts on Sub Prime Auto Lenders
« Last post by DRValue on Today at 06:03:04 AM »
Just reading the CACC AR. They are clearly going after growth through the purchase program where the dealer has less skin in the game. Couple that with a lender who lends with no questions asked to poor to no credit borrowers and you have a recipe for disaster. I can't see a dealer turning down a sale here.
Losses all depends on what they charge for the loans and the softening of the resale market value.
More to do but if I can work out a catalyst there could be something here.
Thanks for sharing.
General Discussion / Re: This woman is really amazing!
« Last post by Cigarbutt on Today at 05:59:09 AM »
"Another gem by giofranchi"

Politely submitted:

I read yesterday an investment fund annual report where the manager candidly explained that he had underperformed 33% of the time since inception. There was also the typical section describing the podium of the "best 3" most recent mistakes. Valeant was there the year before. This manager, over time, has done very well for himself and the investors in his fund.

I'm relatively new here but I have looked back many threads (and learned).
Mistakes happen. They are not the end, they are the beginning.

General Discussion / Re: Random thoughts about net nets
« Last post by frommi on Today at 04:29:39 AM »
If you include companies with $1 million market caps you will have stuff with almost zero liquidity and super wide bid ask spreads. If your results for example include a company where someone sells 100 shares at $0.0001 and next year there is some random trade at $0.01/share for 100 shares as well it looks like a 10,000% return that will totally skew any result. But even if you managed to get 100% of all traded volume you would have made a profit of less than a dollar. That's why if you want to run a meaningful backtest you have to add liquidity constraints and/or take into account trading inpact, bid/ask spread etc. Otherwise you just filter out this kind of noise that cannot be traded.

Yes, but rukawa is right, 50m is way to high. The average NCAV stock in my portfolio is between 5 and 50 million and i won`t include anything above 150m because these tend to have lower returns. But adding a filter like >10k daily volume and price > 0.1 should help with the noise, at least in my backtests it did.
General Discussion / Re: LEAP Puts on Sub Prime Auto Lenders
« Last post by DRValue on Today at 03:59:35 AM »
Great write up!

Very interested in this. The model seems to be make the loan and securitize it which makes shorting Santander consumer a bit less attractive.  I'm trying to find auto loan lenders or investors that keep the loans on the books but Google finance is gone and I'm struggling.
Also I can't find a sub prime auto loan index.

With sub prime mortgages though the trigger was teaser rates ending and higher rates kicking in. What do you think the trigger will be here?

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 10