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Investment Ideas / Re: AMZN - Amazon.com Inc.
« Last post by watsa_is_a_randian_hero on Today at 10:20:42 AM »
http://www.grubstreet.com/2018/01/shoppers-complain-whole-foods-still-has-entirely-empty-shelves.html

Very interesting. The past two times I've gone here in NY, I couldn't get garlic, any type of onions, leeks, a certain type of flour, and peppers. I thought nothing of it, just a temporary disruption due to a snow storm or something. But then someone else mentioned to me a similar experience, and now this article.

Thoughts?

Probably the distributors are squeezing them.

Other way.  Amazon is notorious for playing hardball with vendors.  My guess is that Whole Foods is way nicer.  Cat and Mouse.

It may not have anything to do with this, but rather legacy procedures of Whole Foods. 

In Chicago this has been going on for years with certain produce items, preceding the transaction.  My Chicago whole foods produce guys alluded to shortages of produce available at certain seasonal times from farms that meet their standards.  I think it (at least historically) was driven more by whole foods team not wanting to sacrifice quality and therefore willing to leave the shelf empty rather than obtain a product.  The same missing produce items would always be available at more traditional grocers near by. 

I also noticed a deterioration in the appearance of the quality and durability of the produce over time.  I assumed this was due to the lack of use of certain pesticides and fertilizers that whole foods doesn't want their farmers using; but oftentimes the produce from competing grocers in Chicago has an appearance that looks better and continues to look better in our refrigerator for a longer time. 
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General Discussion / Re: New CoBF Logo
« Last post by rkbabang on Today at 10:06:28 AM »
I like it as well, although I think it would look better if the background were transparent rather than white so that the light blue background would show through.
Just a suggestion.

++ simple fix!

How about to grab this JPEG file named "cropped-cropped-Handover-Corner-Of-Berkshire-Fairfax-JPG-e1516151433460" from the site, fix it and send it to Sanjeev for a reinstall on the CoBF webserver installation? [ ; - ) ]

-I have forgotten how to do [read: manipulate] this in i.e. Photoshop, and nobody has asked me to document my investment returns here on CoBF so far, so I've had no need to refresh my memory!

Thanks everyone!  I figured the site isn't going anywhere, and it was time to make it a bit more permanent and recognizable.

John, I can send you the different JPEGS if you know what to do...I'm not particularly tech savvie.  I believe doing a clear version wouldn't be that difficult if you know what you are doing.

Cheers!

Since I suggested it I'd be willing to do it.   I don't have photoshop on the computer I'm on right now so I did this with GIMP (which I'm not all that familiar with).  If you want to email me the files, I'll do it tonight when I get home.  I'll send you an email in case you no longer have my address.

EDIT: deleted file, transparency didn't work. Like I said I'm not too familiar with GIMP.
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Investment Ideas / Re: SYTE - Sitestar
« Last post by slkiel on Today at 10:01:39 AM »
The 2018 Sitestar Shareholder meeting will be held on May 19, 2018 in Phoenix, AZ. We'll also be hosting an investor day that weekend for Alluvial Fund, Bonhoeffer Fund, and Bridge Reid Funds to make presentations on their funds.

We'll answer all of your questions at the meeting. We had a great crowd last year and look forward to seeing old and new faces this year!

I will post the proxy statement that will have additional information when it becomes available.
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Warrants exercise may be the only sure bet to fix GSEs.   What is the possible highest price they can get on warrants? It could fund infrastructure, border wall and avoid shutdown?

Jtimothyhoward January 11, 2018 at 4:58 pm
One word: warrants.
https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2017/11/30/the-economics-of-reform/#comments

Ivanka Trump
I think he loves to wheel and deal, he likes to make decisions, he like to do contracts. He runs the country as a business," she said.
http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/15/politics/ivana-trump-donald-not-racist-intl/index.html
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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by netnet on Today at 09:55:54 AM »
Has anyone looked the performance of Altius' public stock portfolio and then compared the results to its own stock performance and the TSX mining index?
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Investment Ideas / Re: BAC-WT - Bank of America Warrants
« Last post by Viking on Today at 09:52:12 AM »
BAC reported solid Q4 earnings today. Moving forward, their tax rate in 2018 will fall from an effective rate of 29% to 20%. My back of the envelope math estimates lower taxes alone will increase earnings in 2018 by $4 billion. Of all the things the Trump administration could do to help the big banks tax reform is a slam dunk.

In 2017 BAC earned about $1.80/share (net the one time charge due to tax reform).
In 2018 it looks like BAC should earn $2.60/share = 44% increase.
In 2019 early estimates are BAC should earn $3.10/share = 19% (over 2018)

Shares are currently trading at about $31.00
2017 PE = 17.2 (trailing) - shares look expensive
2018 PE = 11.9 (current year) - shares look cheap
2019 PE = 10.0 (next year) - shares look very cheap

In the first half of 2017 BAC traded at about $23/share; 2017 earnings estimates were $1.80 = 12.7PE. Moving to today, $2.60 x 12.7 = $33. BAC shares are cheaper today than they were 12 months ago.

Dividend: BAC said on the call that they view a 30% payout ratio as a target and with lower taxes (and much higher earnings) the dividend will be moving much higher in 2018.
Current dividend = $0.12 x 4 = $0.48/share = 1.55% yield ($31 share price)
Possible dividend July 2018 = $2.60 x 0.30 = 0.78/ share = 2.5% yield ($31 share price)

Capital return:
BAC should have net earnings of around $26.6 billion in 2018 and I would expect 100% of earnings get returned to investors in 2018 CCAR. This will allow BAC to increase the dividend materially and also reduce shares outstanding by about 5 or 6%.

ROTCE was 11% in 2017 and BAC guided this to increase to 12.5% in 2018
ROA was 0.93% in 2017 and BAC guided this to increase to 1.03% in 2018.
As these metrics improve the PE multiple for BAC should expand.

The following catalysts would result in higher earnings for BAC in 2018:
1.) US GDP growth accelerates
2.) Fed raises rates 4 times (2 to 3 is currently built into estimates)
3.) regulators ease bank rules
The following would result in much higher stock price for BAC in 2018:
4.) Mr Market falls in love with bank stocks and bids up PE ratio

When I weave it all together and once investors get comfortable with the earnings jump that will be coming in 2018 my guess is BAC will trade at closer to $35 and by year end we could see $37 (12 x $3.10 2019 est earnings). At $37 current owners would see about a 20% return (with the stock trading at $31 today). We could also easily see BAC hit $40 in 2018 if a few of the catalysts materialize.
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Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Buffett's Early Investments
« Last post by netnet on Today at 09:47:04 AM »
I just bought (it has not arrived yet), a book by Glen Arnold called, The Deals of Warren Buffett: Volume 1, The First $100m;

it looks like it takes 10 or so deals from City Services through Berkshire, so it does not really get into all of his positions, but it may be representative and does have the cocoa beans, Dempster Mill and Sanborn.

I will post a review in the book section, when I have read it.

I bought it and skimmed it. It doesn't look like he actually went into the annual reports from the year Buffett invested and researched what Buffett might have been thinking at the decision point. The book's very high-level.

Oh sh@t, that's annoying.  I was hoping for a really in depth treatment.
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General Discussion / Re: New CoBF Logo
« Last post by John Hjorth on Today at 09:44:11 AM »
lol.

Sanjeev, I'm not the right person to ask, because I can't do the work. I was trying to get DooDiligence to pick up the glove. -And I certainly hope the site goes nowhere, btw! [: - ) ]

-Allways nice with new stuff on the site, though!
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Investment Ideas / Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Last post by SharperDingaan on Today at 09:35:52 AM »
"We are just simple shareholders, and not affiliated with anyone; but our own thoughts are that we are now past the point of remaining independent. We crossed the threshold when the decision was made to not consolidate the share count."

You really like to sound important do you?

What are you going to do? Contact FrontFour and offer them your vote on your 10,000 shares if they agree to a useless share consolidation?

Cardboard

'WE' aren't going to do anything.

If OBE gets taken out we just get a smaller slice of a bigger and hopefully more valuable pie. If OBE stays independent we get a bigger slice of a smaller pie that is at least as valuable. But no matter what, the present value of the pie today will be decided by experts in their field, and the board will be acting in our (shareholder) best interest. That is all we can ask for, we're OK with that, and it is what we (the shareholder) pay the directors to do.

Agreed management has done some very good work -without it this company would have been bankrupt. All that shareholders can do is vote with their feet; stay if management has been adequately compensated, and their success has them guiding the company - sell when that isn't the case.

We hold all the investment designations that you would expect in an institution, have expertise in the o/g space, and hold a significant portfolio weighting in OBE for a HNW private client. As such, on a bulletin board, we voluntarily hold ourselves to the typical disclosure standard of a public investment fund. Significant buys/sells disclosed within a reasonable time frame.

How our disclosure or contributions are interpreted is not our concern; we simply express a viewpoint, and our basis for it. It is just one more, of the many different views in the market place, that are expressed every day.

SD
 

 
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General Discussion / Re: New CoBF Logo
« Last post by Parsad on Today at 09:34:40 AM »
I like it as well, although I think it would look better if the background were transparent rather than white so that the light blue background would show through.
Just a suggestion.

++ simple fix!

How about to grab this JPEG file named "cropped-cropped-Handover-Corner-Of-Berkshire-Fairfax-JPG-e1516151433460" from the site, fix it and send it to Sanjeev for a reinstall on the CoBF webserver installation? [ ; - ) ]

-I have forgotten how to do [read: manipulate] this in i.e. Photoshop, and nobody has asked me to document my investment returns here on CoBF so far, so I've had no need to refresh my memory!

Thanks everyone!  I figured the site isn't going anywhere, and it was time to make it a bit more permanent and recognizable.

John, I can send you the different JPEGS if you know what to do...I'm not particularly tech savvie.  I believe doing a clear version wouldn't be that difficult if you know what you are doing.

Cheers!
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