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Fairfax Financial / Re: Fairfax 2018
« Last post by Dazel on Today at 05:27:59 AM »


The old bond king Bill Gross says the bond bear market is in full swing...this is huge for Fairfax as they hold over 43% (after the sale of first capital) in cash...others bond portfolio will get hit with big losses. Fairfax will avoid the losses and be able to deploy at higher rates. To me this will be the story of 2018...Fairfax hold several commodity related investments as well which have and will continue do well in a rising inflationary environment...Resolute, Altius,Apr energy,  Seaspan, Fairfax Africa.


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Fairfax Financial / Re: Fairfax 2018
« Last post by Dazel on Today at 05:17:35 AM »


Also of note I am pretty sure that Bradstreet has made money in Greek bonds...however, I am not sure how much he held into last years rally. Greek debt is the best performing in the world and now yields approx 3.5%....these were generating above 10% yields for a longtime.

Of note the U.S 10 year is trading above 2.60% yield at 2.613%. Last years high was 2.63% and as someone else quoted Gundlach (the bond king), he says if we breach 2.63% rates will skyrocket up.

This thesis would jive with the real ďbond kingĒ Brian Bradstreetís strategy.
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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by Williams406 on Today at 05:04:29 AM »
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/8d6671_59f9ad14ed7f4f2cbd5c85f3a612a537.pdf

EMU with a hilarious press release about their drilling troubles. The drill contractor didnít have an air compressor; EMU rents a compressor but the vehicle thatís supposed to tow the compressor doesnít have a tow hitch; the drill rig is in bad shape from the last job, was shipped improperly, and breaks down constantly.

It's like those holes didn't want to get drilled.

We'll get that stuff fixed right away--I'll put my best people on it.
--Bungle Drilling, LLC CEO Mel Adroit
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Investment Ideas / Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Last post by DooDiligence on Today at 04:28:26 AM »
"We are just simple shareholders, and not affiliated with anyone; but our own thoughts are that we are now past the point of remaining independent. We crossed the threshold when the decision was made to not consolidate the share count."

You really like to sound important do you?

What are you going to do? Contact FrontFour and offer them your vote on your 10,000 shares if they agree to a useless share consolidation?

Cardboard

'WE' aren't going to do anything.

If OBE gets taken out we just get a smaller slice of a bigger and hopefully more valuable pie. If OBE stays independent we get a bigger slice of a smaller pie that is at least as valuable. But no matter what, the present value of the pie today will be decided by experts in their field, and the board will be acting in our (shareholder) best interest. That is all we can ask for, we're OK with that, and it is what we (the shareholder) pay the directors to do.

Agreed management has done some very good work -without it this company would have been bankrupt. All that shareholders can do is vote with their feet; stay if management has been adequately compensated, and their success has them guiding the company - sell when that isn't the case.

We hold all the investment designations that you would expect in an institution, have expertise in the o/g space, and hold a significant portfolio weighting in OBE for a HNW private client. As such, on a bulletin board, we voluntarily hold ourselves to the typical disclosure standard of a public investment fund. Significant buys/sells disclosed within a reasonable time frame.

How our disclosure or contributions are interpreted is not our concern; we simply express a viewpoint, and our basis for it. It is just one more, of the many different views in the market place, that are expressed every day.

SD


Very elegantly stated.
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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by linealdin on Today at 03:11:13 AM »
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/8d6671_59f9ad14ed7f4f2cbd5c85f3a612a537.pdf

EMU with a hilarious press release about their drilling troubles. The drill contractor didnít have an air compressor; EMU rents a compressor but the vehicle thatís supposed to tow the compressor doesnít have a tow hitch; the drill rig is in bad shape from the last job, was shipped improperly, and breaks down constantly.
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General Discussion / Re: Chou America Funds!
« Last post by Cevian on Today at 03:01:48 AM »
I would guess Overstock was the largest driver of returns for him this year.
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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by linealdin on Today at 02:57:36 AM »
Osisko and Sandstorm management have talked about their ownership of a juniorís stock having an ďacceleratorĒ effect for the junior. Nolan Watson of Sandstorm says that tiny juniors come to him asking for equity/royalty deals because they want the eyeballs of Sandstormís 41,000 shareholders focused on their project. Sandstorm is building a marketing department to hype up some of these juniors in their portfolio.

I suppose Altius is sort of doing the same thing by regularly releasing a list of their PG holdings. They want more eyeballs on those companies, most of which are tiny.

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Fairfax Financial / Re: Fairfax 2018
« Last post by petec on Today at 02:34:46 AM »

For all the bull market enthusiasts...Blackberry may be on the cusp of joining the frenzy. I would not hold a big position directly at these levels but happy to have Fairfax possibly make billions on the frenzy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackberry-software/blackberry-launches-cybersecurity-software-for-self-driving-cars-idUSKBN1F42LX

The article missed the Nvidia partnership. Nvidia was the hottest stock in the tech sector last year...stay tuned.

I think Blackberry has already joined the frenzy!

I was also amazed to see that Grivalia is virtually debt free. Enormous opportunity there as the Greek banks ramp their efforts to auction mortgage NPLs to meet their 2018/9 targets. And FFH could win on both sides of that deal - Grivalia and Eurobank, which still trades at 0.33x tbv despite having been profitable since 2016 (I have not done a deep dive).
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Fairfax Financial / Re: Fairfax 2018
« Last post by petec on Today at 02:31:19 AM »
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/seaspan-enters-into-definitive-agreements-for-250-million-unsecured-550-debenture-and-warrant-investment-with-fairfax-financial-holdings-limited-669830003.html

Is this the same David Sokol of Berkshire Hathaway fame, that was unceremoniously booted out soon after the Lubrizol acquisition for front running his money while aware of Berkshire's plans to takeover?
A little hard to stomach after Watsa's blind faith in Tom Ward that lost Fairfax hundreds of millions of dollars. If you listen to the likes of Walter Schloss one of the attributes of Warren Buffett they are amazed by is his uncanny ability to judge character, and as close as Sokol was to the top, I doubt he was acting with less than full  knowledge.
Certainly a concern for me. Any thoughts?

It is. They also have a joint investment with him in Davos Brands.

Buffett always praised him as an exceptional executive. He made - so far as we know - one lapse of judgement. He has either learned his lesson or has not. Fairfax is investing alongside him in marketable securities. That's very different to promoting him CEO of a subsidiary or even the whole company, which people thought might happen at BRK. Am I totally comfortable? No. Do I see it as a massive risk for Fairfax? No.

Buffett clearly made a mistake in his judgement of Sokol's character. What we don't know is whether he made it when he praised him or when he fired him.
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General Discussion / Re: New CoBF Logo
« Last post by Dynamic on Today at 01:06:35 AM »
I'm pretty adept with GIMP too (and PNGoo for PNG optimisation) so I'm happy to give it a go with the original graphics if you wish.
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