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Berkshire Hathaway / Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Last post by sleepydragon on Today at 04:38:11 PM »
OK, in the boring world of BRK ownership, just thought of updating the #s for FANG versus BRK

FANG
         Mkt cap: $2321   Net Earnings: $31.6   Book: $257.3   P/E 73.4   P/B 9.0
BRK           Mkt Cap $483   Net Earnings: $45   Book: $348   P/E 10.7   P/B 1.4

Mkt cap are today's numbers the rest are Dec 17 numbers, so the current ratios could be quite a bit off, especially for the  FANG stocks. Also notable is that FB and GOOG make up 90% of the FANG's $31.6B and 85% of the book.

It's all over for BRK. The FANG's have won and they will take it all!


How are you coming up with $45B earnings for BRK?

He's  taking last year's GAAP which includes the change in the DTL which is one-time in nature, which I think is what you are getting at. ($21 billion of the $45 billion for 2017 was negative tax expense)

To use a reasonable neutral third party, JP Morgan estimates ~$28 billion for 2019 ($5B investment income, $2B of underwriting = $7 Billion insureance + $29 billion operating+$4 billion investment gains +- some other crap for $34 billion of pre-tax income less $6.6 b of taxes = $28 billion of earnings), with upside in the event of deployment of excess capital.

I think Berkshire is safe and relatively cheap and it is my largest position (and my family's). $45 billion of earnings ain't happening (unless the stock portfolio zooms up, which you wouldn't capitalize those earnings)

EDIT: What I mean is that $45 billion of operating earnings ain't happening any time soon. Because of the accounting changes made recently you could get there with stock value change, but that's not the same thing. Overall, I think longinvestor just took 2017 GAAP NI and did not mean it as a representation of anything more than that, 2017 NI.

Look through earnings are ~$12b—so plus op earnings—let's call it around ~$35b total.

Berkshire is trading around 13x earnings which seems like a fair deal to me.

If excluding the 100b cash, the pe becomes around 11ish I think
2
Investment Ideas / Re: RMBL - RumbleOn
« Last post by cameronfen on Today at 04:36:01 PM »
I will say that LFinvestor you do sound promotional and I apologize if I sound promotional you can check my posts, I have a decent post history (although I checked LF does not).  That being said this does look like an interesting company.  I do stand by my 2 sided market comment.  Rumble may buy from consumers, but they have to sell their motorcycles too.  The largest network of private buyers gives rumble the best selection of people to sell to either raising gross margins or allowing higher prices on the buy side.  The other side was discused.  This is the same business model as autotrader and naspers which almost entirely invests in two sided markets thinks autotrader has these economics so argue with naspers if you dont think this has the correct model.  I would omvest more here, but tbh LFs pumpiness does make me hesitate. 
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Berkshire Hathaway / Re: berkshire - cheap?
« Last post by SlowAppreciation on Today at 04:17:30 PM »
OK, in the boring world of BRK ownership, just thought of updating the #s for FANG versus BRK

FANG
         Mkt cap: $2321   Net Earnings: $31.6   Book: $257.3   P/E 73.4   P/B 9.0
BRK           Mkt Cap $483   Net Earnings: $45   Book: $348   P/E 10.7   P/B 1.4

Mkt cap are today's numbers the rest are Dec 17 numbers, so the current ratios could be quite a bit off, especially for the  FANG stocks. Also notable is that FB and GOOG make up 90% of the FANG's $31.6B and 85% of the book.

It's all over for BRK. The FANG's have won and they will take it all!


How are you coming up with $45B earnings for BRK?

He's  taking last year's GAAP which includes the change in the DTL which is one-time in nature, which I think is what you are getting at. ($21 billion of the $45 billion for 2017 was negative tax expense)

To use a reasonable neutral third party, JP Morgan estimates ~$28 billion for 2019 ($5B investment income, $2B of underwriting = $7 Billion insureance + $29 billion operating+$4 billion investment gains +- some other crap for $34 billion of pre-tax income less $6.6 b of taxes = $28 billion of earnings), with upside in the event of deployment of excess capital.

I think Berkshire is safe and relatively cheap and it is my largest position (and my family's). $45 billion of earnings ain't happening (unless the stock portfolio zooms up, which you wouldn't capitalize those earnings)

EDIT: What I mean is that $45 billion of operating earnings ain't happening any time soon. Because of the accounting changes made recently you could get there with stock value change, but that's not the same thing. Overall, I think longinvestor just took 2017 GAAP NI and did not mean it as a representation of anything more than that, 2017 NI.

Look through earnings are ~$12b—so plus op earnings—let's call it around ~$35b total.

Berkshire is trading around 13x earnings which seems like a fair deal to me.
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I nearly invested in this Egyptian tourism business, but then I realized it was just a pyramid scheme.


I bought the Giza pyramids back in 1998 & here's me & my agent getting ready to go to the closing.
He was much better as a sales agent than he is as a property manager.
I still haven't received any rent checks & think I've got squatters.

BTW, nice mullet, huh?


A+ mullet. Or should I say rad mullet, man.
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Books / Re: Big Mistakes - Michael Batnick
« Last post by Saluki on Today at 03:59:04 PM »
I also study failure to avoid it.  I thought "What I learned from Losing a Million Dollars" was good. I have Jared Diamond's "Collapse" on my bookshelf, but haven't gotten to it yet.  If you like the cable industry, Cable Cowboy and A Curious Discovery about John Malone and John Hendricks have happy endings but both were always teetering on insolvency in the early days. 

The Smartest Guys in the Room and Conspiracy of Fools were great books about the Enron collapse. And I thought it would be tough to beat "Too Big to Fail" but I think "All the Devils are here"by Bethany Mclean edges it out. 
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Investment Ideas / Re: RMBL - RumbleOn
« Last post by indirect on Today at 03:37:14 PM »
Agree Promotional
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Investment Ideas / Re: SBRCY - Sberbank
« Last post by John Hjorth on Today at 03:23:58 PM »
Tom,

Thank you for the Mittleman quotes. To me they say a lot about the mindset the investor need to have to invest in this space [not just Russian banking, but perhaps also Russian stocks in general].

Russian stocks are in general so much out of favor here on CoBF. If I remember correctly, we only have topics about Lukoil and Gazprom on here, however I might be mistaken [Please correct me in this topic, if I'm wrong].

Tom, do you have a link to where you've got the quotes? - Thank you in advance.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Wfearful_Bgreedy,

Thank you for starting this topic!
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Investment Ideas / Re: RMBL - RumbleOn
« Last post by LFvalueseeker on Today at 03:20:41 PM »
Quote
Promotional?

Yup.

Ok, if you review all of my posts, I think you may feel otherwise.  I joined this forum to have active dialogue on individual stocks.  Find the holes in the story and lets debate them as it tends to lead to better decision making.  I didn't join to be accused of "pumping" a stock.  Blatant pumps are my favorite short term trades.  This is anything but that.  I maintain that I have been very clear on the downsides and the fact that every microcap is inherently risky.

I agree with globalfinancepartners: you come through as very promotional.
Maybe you have good intentions. Maybe you are just excited about this company and the opportunity. And, yes, you did disclose your position.

But still you have posts only on a single company and all of them very positive.

Good luck.

Disclosure: No interest in the company and stock.

I get excited by a few stocks a year. This happens to be one of them. I apologize if it comes off as promotional. I tried my best to lay out the risks and state multiple times that this is not a blue chip name  Also refreshing that this forum asks the right questions and conducts in intelligent coversation.
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Investment Ideas / Re: RMBL - RumbleOn
« Last post by Jurgis on Today at 03:12:00 PM »
Quote
Promotional?

Yup.

Ok, if you review all of my posts, I think you may feel otherwise.  I joined this forum to have active dialogue on individual stocks.  Find the holes in the story and lets debate them as it tends to lead to better decision making.  I didn't join to be accused of "pumping" a stock.  Blatant pumps are my favorite short term trades.  This is anything but that.  I maintain that I have been very clear on the downsides and the fact that every microcap is inherently risky.

I agree with globalfinancepartners: you come through as very promotional.
Maybe you have good intentions. Maybe you are just excited about this company and the opportunity. And, yes, you did disclose your position.

But still you have posts only on a single company and all of them very positive.

Good luck.

Disclosure: No interest in the company and stock.
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