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Investment Ideas / Re: SIRI - Sirius XM Radio
« Last post by vince on Today at 05:35:30 AM »
For very good businesses it has rarely been a good idea to fund acquisitions with stock.
Combined with the decreased buybacks and being at the lower end of the leverage range, they must really think that SIRI is not cheap at all. Otherwise they obviously should have used cash/debt.

Well at over 20 times fcf I dont think anyone really believes its cheap.  And they have commented that the buyback was lowered cause the price got away from them.  I love the fact that they used stock in this case.  it is so rare to see companies do massive buybacks at lower valuations and then turnaround and issue shares at full valuations.  Gotta love it.  What do you think the stock is worth and why?
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The problem is that nobody knows what to do, because Trump starts a trade war with the rest of the world basically. So reconfiguring the supply chain to a different country ( which might take years) is a very high risk proposition, as you could end up with the same tariffs anyways.
I think insourcing to the US will occur, but in a very limited way. For one thing, the labor force to do thiss just isnít available, because there is no slack any more. The best I can come up with a robotics companies, but most of those are foreign too ( Fanuc, Kuka). Those may get hit by tariffs as well.
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Investment Ideas / Re: FSCR- Federal Screw Works
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 04:06:06 AM »
FSCR looks optically cheaper than it is. I get ~$39.2M EV (including pensions) and $7.7M ENITDA or roughly 5x EBITDA. There are quite a few major car supplier trading at similar multiples and those are better business ( Lear, Delphi etc).
Anyone has any idea why they are spending almost 10% of their revenue for Capex, yet revenues revenue not growing? Thatís twice as much than their depreciation.
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Politics / Re: Great article by Shelby Steele
« Last post by cubsfan on Today at 03:52:09 AM »

 To have no middle ground and opposing parties poles that despise the opposition is very damaging and the US seems to head this way. The problem is that Trump is very polarizing and makes absolutely no effort to reach a middle ground.

I don't think this is correct. Trump is a centrist - the right wing of the Republican Party does not like him, because he's too moderate.
And certainly the left wing and majority of Democratic Party despises him.  But the Trump government of today, looks much more like
the Bill Clinton government of the mid 1990's.  Trump is bringing government back to the center - respect for the military, respect for police,
strong foreign policy (not an apologist), backing Israel, respect for borders, economic focused.

And Trump does not apologize for being American, like Obama.

You can dislike his methods - but his "polarization" is because the previous administration went so far to the left and used identity politics
to brand anyone that did not agree with them as racist, homophobic or sexist.  He fights fire with fire. Look no further than the failure of
Mitt Romney and John McCain - who were so "nice" as not to play dirty like the left. Unfortunately that is our politics today.

From day 1 - the Democrats made it obvious they would NEVER work with Trump - NEVER.  A large majority of the Democrats boycotted
the Presidential inauguration - on the first day!  Our country always prided itself on "Peaceful transition of Power" after Presidential elections.
Democrats totally broke with tradition and started calling for impeachment day one. 

Just ask yourself a common sense question:  How do you work with a party like that?
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Investment Ideas / Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Last post by Valuehalla on Today at 03:50:45 AM »
Doenst worry me at all. If Jeff Storey would leave additionally, it would worry me.
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Investment Ideas / Re: SSW - Seaspan
« Last post by petec on Today at 02:18:59 AM »
I thought this piece on scrubbers was pretty helpful.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207153-2020-sulfur-cap-scrubbers-gain-favor

Thanks-I find that quite compelling on the anti-scrubber side!
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Investment Ideas / Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Last post by petec on Today at 02:03:56 AM »
How much does this worry you?
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Investment Ideas / Re: SIRI - Sirius XM Radio
« Last post by Happy on Today at 01:39:04 AM »
For very good businesses it has rarely been a good idea to fund acquisitions with stock.
Combined with the decreased buybacks and being at the lower end of the leverage range, they must really think that SIRI is not cheap at all. Otherwise they obviously should have used cash/debt.
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