Recent Posts

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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by linealdin on Today at 05:22:12 AM »
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/12/19/1669402/0/en/Alderon-Iron-Ore-Corp-2018-Year-of-Revival-and-Re-positioning.html

Alderon 2018 year in review:

The premia garnered by the high-grade iron ore concentrates improves the Kami Project economics substantially and allows Alderon to re-enter the market and pursue financing. Capital markets are receptive to producing or substantially de-risked iron ore projects, such as Kami, and are starting to recognize the value of the Labrador Trough. Alderon and HBIS Group are focused on building capital with traditional and non-traditional sources, and are in ongoing discussions with representatives of various banks.

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Investment Ideas / Re: ADS - Alliance Data Systems
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 04:11:13 AM »
I looked at DFS annual numbers a few years back and it seems that they also levered a bit up starting in 2016. They also bought back shares like crazy. Current leverage looks Ok, but some of the CC companies may have to stop buying back shares if delinquencies go up and reserves need to be buffed.
Which company(ies) do you think that has to stop buying back shares?  All consumer finance pure plays (SC, ALLY, SYF, DFS, COF, etc.) are so penalized at this point that valuation is already pricing in a mild recession ala 2001.

I am ny sure whether they have to but DFS seems to have run down their Tier 1 capital ratio by almost 2% points. I doubt they want to go much lower. I guess they can just buy back from continuing earnings, but they probably will have to retain some, if they want to grow their loan book. DFS is BBB- rated and hence barely investment grade. I doubt they want to risk getting into junk credit rating.

I think the market is a bit spooked about CC debt. I think in the last quarter, write offs started to increase, but its not clear to me that this is a trend. As far as I know they is some cyclicality in these numbers and they tend to spike early in the year (after Xmas).
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Investment Ideas / Re: AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 04:05:30 AM »
I have this on my watchlist. One concern I have is that there are a lot of adjustments in the numbers, so many that I wasnt able to reconcile the cash flow statement and it seemed to me that the FCF (which was dusted downwards late this year by more than $100M) is overstated. Why would maintenance capex be normalized?
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Questrade does not seem to reject pink sheet order in RRSP.
The question I was wondering if the penalty is per month or per rrsp-year. If it's per-rrsp year, then you can sell before year-end if it doesn't uplist.
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Strategies / Re: pink sheet stocks in rrsp or tfsa which will list on nasdaq?
« Last post by nodnub on December 18, 2018, 11:21:45 PM »
Suspended from trading or de-listed

1.21 Shares of a corporation resident in Canada that were (emphasis mine) listed on a designated stock exchange in Canada but that have been suspended from trading or delisted will generally retain their qualified investment status on the basis that such a corporation continues to be a public corporation. As discussed in 1.23, shares of a public corporation are qualified investments. Qualified investment status could be lost, however, if the corporation elected (or was designated) not to be a public corporation. In most other situations, the suspension or delisting of a security will result in loss of qualified investment status, unless the security also qualifies under another provision.
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Politics / Re: If Trump should be investigated
« Last post by Parsad on December 18, 2018, 10:50:10 PM »
And he's got some shots for the twitter junkies as well:

I will be honest with you: It troubles me that the American people seem to want to know so little about issues that they are satisfied with 128 characters, Tillerson said.


Considering Rex is one of the few members of Trump's administration who was fired and not indicted, he's probably more believable.


He also has an impeccable reputation unlike almost all of Trump's administration outside of General Kelly and Wilbur Ross.  Cheers!

I laughed hard when you mentioned impeccable reputation and Wilbur Ross in same sentence.  ;D

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/08/wilbur-ross-stole-money-from-colleagues-sweetn-low-from-restaurants

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2018/08/06/new-details-about-wilbur-rosss-businesses-point-to-pattern-of-grifting/#2045fecd1c33

I have to question an author's motives when his bio says:

I write about Donald Trump, the people around him, and how they affect business. Before he won the presidency, I covered billionaires, industrial America and sports. My favorite stories focus on the hands-dirty businesses between the coasts that make up the bulk of the U.S. economy yet get relatively little national attention.

This reminds me of the Peter Eavis', Herb Greenbergs and Fabrice Taylors of the world.  Questionable ethics!  Not defending Ross...if he's dirty, then he'll get what's coming, but that article was almost entirely heresay with little backing evidence.  Cheers!
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Investment Ideas / Re: AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems
« Last post by RadMan24 on December 18, 2018, 09:13:18 PM »
Raw materials are generally down in price. Offering a tailwind.

At $22, its pretty attractive. Roberts should be a good CEO, knows how to allocate capital. They will be buying some stock.  Market has dropped them after PPG warning and auto sales cooling and trade wars.

Latin America should bounce back soon. Europe might be soft with recent regulatory delays in approving vehicles plus Brexit and French uncertainty. Just typical cycles. 

But at $22, for a solid refinish and industrial coatings business, valuation attractive on FCF basis (using normalized maintenance Capex). On a reported earnings basis they wont look cheap, but look at historical cash flows and guidance for more meaningful valuation work.
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General Discussion / Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Last post by cherzeca on December 18, 2018, 08:59:16 PM »
@midas

"Still, since Calabria has written that the GSEs could survive receivership, then it can be seen to conform to TINA. What is receivership if not a restructuring? One that keeps taxpayers safe because the funding commitment would not transfer to the LLREs."

1.  there has never been a liquidation of $5 trillion enterprises before.  do you think Mnuchin wants to have his neck on the line supervising the first?

2.  housing market will get the shakes if not convulsions if the liquidation proceeds.  you think trump wants to commit such an unforced error when his cherished scorecard for his performance as potus is the stock market?

3.  the liquidation will eliminate tens of billions of dollars of warrant value for the taxpayer.  do you think trump wants to go down in history as the stupidest investor of all time?
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At any oil price so far, have we seen shale generate FCF?

AR have started producing FCF this quarter. They have said this would be their inflection point, seems the latest release confirms it.

Quote
Share Repurchase Activity:

Repurchased 9.1 million shares for $129 million quarter-to-date
Average repurchase price was $14.10 per share
Share repurchases were funded primarily from free cash flow generated during the quarter
-They have recently benefitted from a better price environment for natural gas.
-They have delevered.
-But for the second time in about a year, they have monetized (357M announced today) some of their hedging program (same volume but lower protection).

Is this sustainable?
Do you think the upside/downside profile has improved?


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