Recent Posts

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Investment Ideas / Re: OSTK - Overstock.com
« Last post by spark411 on Today at 01:17:54 PM »
i'm having the same issue.   I keep selling 10% of shares at certain weight of portfolio but after I sell it keeps going up.   I'm reminded how hard it is to hold onto a stock like buffett and get the large returns.    At 1x sale we're looking at 1.8B which means about 20% above today's price.    using pabrai's 90% of intrinsic value method, it should mean i should sell at 10% of today's stock price.   very hard to decide what to do.   the target prices assumes no value on the t0 stuff.  hold like buffett or sell like pabrai?
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Politics / Who would have thought?
« Last post by Cardboard on Today at 01:16:33 PM »
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Investment Ideas / Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Last post by doc75 on Today at 01:07:17 PM »
Cardboard

You seem pretty tuned into the small Canadian E&P space.  I've noticed a few comments you've made here-or-there on some of them, but do you care to share a short-list of those that you find most interesting at today's valuations?

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Investment Ideas / Re: PWE - Penn West Petroleum
« Last post by Cardboard on Today at 01:00:07 PM »
Some of you guys are fixated at alphabet soup price being on discount while all other soups are on discount too and some a lot more.

There is nothing special going on with OBE that is not going on with other Canadian smaller producers. In case you have missed it, there has been a very large bear market in this sector this year. And currently, it seems that we have a lot of year end tax loss selling going on.

Add to this a general disgust for fossil fuels, that these names have been down for 3 years now and you have a recipe for undervaluation. I should rephrase: zero interest!

Forget about share consolidation. That is not going to make a difference to the kind of institutions who will buy based on price alone as they will then complain about lack of liquidity.

Cardboard
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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 12:59:08 PM »
Altius was overvalued in 2010, 2011 and 2012 because of optimism for Alderon. Too many eggs in one basket. Why in the world did Alderon have a $400 million market cap? A kind of market mania. Some Altius investors started making add-on bets by buying Alderon shares. Just crazy.

So much of Altius's value in 2011 was tied up in Alderon shares and the Voisey's Bay royalty. Both blew up! Lack of diversification. Altius should have been an $7 stock in 2011. The discounting/CAGR crew should have been discounting the hell out of Alderon.

I like Altius today 100X better than Altius in 2011. More baskets.

Now the discounting crew shows up and wants to tell me Altius's diversified, long life royalty streams aren't worth very much because they should be discounted at 15%. Bug off.

Hindsight is 20/20. If by random luck iron ore had just stayed flat from that level and the mines had been built, you wouldn't be saying it was overvalued at the time. This is part of the problem, it relies on luck and commodity prices (which during bad times tend to all move in lockstep, negating a lot of the diversification).
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General Discussion / Re: "AntiFragile" Portfolio
« Last post by rkbabang on Today at 12:49:44 PM »
Anti Fragile in the Talebian sense doesn't mean something that survives disaster and comes out stronger long term, but something that benefits immediately from it.  Such as gold or bitcoin if the US Dollar or the US Government collapses.   I think an anti-fragile stock portfolio would consist of nothing but long term out of the money calls and puts to benefit from a black swan event in either direction.  The only way you lose money is if nothing much happens.

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General Discussion / Re: What are you buying today?
« Last post by John Hjorth on Today at 12:45:52 PM »
Increased my position in Liberty Braves and also increased my position in Partners Value Investments LP which in my view is a much better way to invest into Brookfield Asset Management.

Hi Eric,

Why not buy just BAM since they have an ownership stake in a slew of their spinoffs?

Quote from the BAM topic in the Investment Ideas forum:

gokou3,

PVF.UN is levered with preferred stock also, in layers.


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General Discussion / Re: Game: Convince the skeptic - Bitcoin
« Last post by rkbabang on Today at 12:39:50 PM »
How do you feel about the non-inflationary characteristics of bitcoin in an environment with very low inflation? The US hasn't seen much inflation in the past 5 years. What if that persists?

With all of the QE, do you think it is possible for it to persist?   That isn't a rhetorical question, because I don't know.  My gut tells me that at some point the chickens are going to come home to roost and we are going to be hit with an uncomfortable rate of price inflation.  Most of my wealth is still in stocks and USD, not bitcoin, but I'm glad I have some bitcoin nonetheless.
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Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Berkshire 13F
« Last post by John Hjorth on Today at 12:33:05 PM »
Thanks, cubsfan,

Absolutely nothing wrong with being dense, and at the same to the point!
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Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by linealdin on Today at 12:25:51 PM »
Altius was overvalued in 2010, 2011 and 2012 because of optimism for Alderon. Too many eggs in one basket. Why in the world did Alderon have a $400 million market cap? A kind of market mania. Some Altius investors started making add-on bets by buying Alderon shares. Just crazy.

So much of Altius's value in 2011 was tied up in Alderon shares and the Voisey's Bay royalty. Both blew up! Lack of diversification. Altius should have been an $7 stock in 2011. The discounting/CAGR crew should have been discounting the hell out of Alderon.

I like Altius today 100X better than Altius in 2011. More baskets.

Now the discounting crew shows up and wants to tell me Altius's diversified, long life royalty streams aren't worth very much because they should be discounted at 15%. Bug off.

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