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Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Annual Letter 2018
« Last post by gfp on Today at 10:50:21 AM »
You think he might top out at $10 Billion worth of BRK share repurchases per year because of regulatory limits?  Why?
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzTgayUXQAAz0pM.png

admin bypassed congress in allowing 3bn capital buffer. i dont think its controversial to allow them to build more given clear signs global economy is slowing and a real possibility of a downturn next year or two. also, its FHFA's job to ensure sound and solvent

with trump "bypassing" congress on wall funding, this has become an intramural spitting match.  congress has no clue what to do with GSE reform, and couldn't pass anything if it did.  I think admin will introduce something that has a role for congress somewhere down the line, but I think it is being careful with optics right now
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General Discussion / Congressional Holdings
« Last post by Castanza on Today at 10:32:57 AM »
Not sure if this has been discussed here or not. It's really more for entertainment than anything. But this website allows you to see what members of congress are buying or just doing with their money in general.

http://clerk.house.gov/public_disc/financial-search.aspx

There are a few interesting plays. Noticed a few people taking large positions in GE and Travelers Inc, Massie opened a position (maybe added) in Tesla.

Just browsing through for 30 min or so there seems to be a lot of people buying midstream, and utility companies.

The most interesting was by far Nancy Pelosi. She opened a 1m-5m long call position on Amazon. Purchased 10k shares of At&t, and opened a 100-250k long call on FB.

Again! Not saying to follow their investment moves (they probably have someone else do it anyways) but it's interesting regardless.
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Events & Meeting Notes / Re: Daily Journal 2019
« Last post by longtermdave on Today at 10:29:34 AM »
I agree with him that fees are a big toll, but I think he's exaggerating a bit with that 90% loss. I can't get the numbers to work, even playing with taxes, churn, inflation, and assuming someone invests at day zero and lives to 100 years old. Can anyone else get to that number?


Some great quotes:

FEES ARE A BIG TOLL

“People don’t realise, because they’re so mathematically illiterate, is that if you make five per cent and pay two of it to your advisers, you’re not losing 40 percent of your future. You’re losing 90 percent because over a long period of time that little difference becomes a 90 percent disadvantage to you. So it’s hugely important for somebody who is a long term holder not to be paying a big annual toll out of performance.”


DIVERSIFICATION VS. EXCELLENCE

“The whole idea of [wide] diversification when you’re looking for excellence is totally ridiculous. It doesn’t work. It gives you an impossible task. What fun is it to do an impossible task over and over again?”


https://vintagevalueinvesting.com/daily-journal-meeting-notes-2019/
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Berkshire Hathaway / Re: Annual Letter 2018
« Last post by nickenumbers on Today at 10:29:17 AM »
I think you nailed the best ones LongInvestor.

BNSF prospects, the RE Brokerage rollups, the Clayton Rollups, more prospects in China [with/with out partners].

Mostly, I want to hear about Capital Deployment.  He has created an amazing tool to collect capital/Cash with the ownership of business, amazing, super stupendous...  be careful what you wish for, now he has all this Cash Raining In and he has to put all that cash to work, year, after year after year...  He is like El Chapo 10 with all that cash.

I think he should repurchase BRK shares as much as he can and as much as he is legally able, as long as the price/value difference makes sense, because, I suspect he might top out at $10B per year due to regulatory limits.  [He doesn't even need to tell me/us his plan/tip his hand, just DO IT.  We can all watch and fill in the blanks as time goes by.]  But this business of waiting and waiting and waiting, as the cash accumulates, is unsustainable.  He has more cash than he will need for any deal or set of deals, and he can get access to more short term cash if he needed it.


Macro- I would like to hear him talk about the national debt and what he thinks.  Spin us some Omaha wisdom to put it in perspective.
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzTgayUXQAAz0pM.png

admin bypassed congress in allowing 3bn capital buffer. i dont think its controversial to allow them to build more given clear signs global economy is slowing and a real possibility of a downturn next year or two. also, its FHFA's job to ensure sound and solvent
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I don’t think recap is that controversial? Especially given no one seemed to object in calabrias confirmation hearing. Also Calabria said multiple times as soon as 2015 that receivership is legally required, so I hope otting prevents the possibility of Calabria going rogue by moving to recap before Calabria is confirmed. Releasing f&f after they’ve been recapped however is certainly going to be controversial and here a court opinion would help greatly

what I heard calabria say was that receivership was available instead of conservatorship and NWS (which he said was illegal). 

who knows, but my best guess is that no action by otting who will wait until calabria is confirmed since if admin is going to "bypass" congress, admin will want to do it with an fhfa director that the senate itself confirmed
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Very interesting story. Two tidbits are interesting : he has had a "steady income of $10M a year" for many years, and Heiko is a home run (gone up 160x).

There's one part that seems to be contradictory, saying he likes to double down when the price goes down, and then it says he tends to sell when a position goes 25% against him. I'm guessing this is the journalist not explaining his reasoning fully (he sells if something happens to make him lose confidence and it moves by more than 25%, maybe? and if he remains confident, he doubles down).

He's certainly a nice rags to riches story, boostrapping himself from dunce-cap dyslexic with abusive father, forced to go into the navy by a judge to inventor and investor billionaire.
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Investment Ideas / Re: CTL - CenturyLink
« Last post by dwy000 on Today at 10:08:35 AM »
Quote from:  Southeastern filed 13D

In light of such private market interest, we believe the preferred way
to improve the balance sheet should be through asset sales. Southeastern seeks
to add directors who will bring expertise to such discussions. If asset sales
are more likely in the intermediate term than the short-term, then Southeastern
believes that separate target stocks should be considered for the fiber network
business and for the Consumer business. Such target stocks, or tracking stocks,
would highlight the value in the two disparate parts of CenturyLink, would
provide a path towards eventual actual separation of these segments, and would
add capital allocation flexibility for the Company.

Thought these guys were long-term investors. Seems like a short-term way of boosting stock prices.

I think CenturyLink's finally making the right moves by cutting the dividend and repaying debt. People are worried that the dividend cut is an implicit sign that cash flows will deteriorate. Which is true in most cases, but not here. This just seems like just prudent capital allocation; make the business safer and get capital allocation flexibility. Guidance also suggests that EBITDA will be stable. The melting ice cube scenario is also not relevant here. At some point, the legacy business will go to zero and the good business will take over..

On valuation, why look at CTL on a levered basis? A double-digit levered-FCF yield is meaningless when the cap structure is mostly debt..

Double-digit levered FCF yield isn't meaningless if the business is stable.  The FCF yield is after debt service.  If the business is stable that's the FCF to equity.  If the business is shrinking it becomes a question of who gets the cash flow - debt repayment or equity holders.
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I don’t think recap is that controversial? Especially given no one seemed to object in calabrias confirmation hearing. Also Calabria said multiple times as soon as 2015 that receivership is legally required, so I hope otting prevents the possibility of Calabria going rogue by moving to recap before Calabria is confirmed. Releasing f&f after they’ve been recapped however is certainly going to be controversial and here a court opinion would help greatly
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