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Fairfax Financial / Re: Fairfax or Berkshire?
« Last post by ValueMaven on Today at 06:37:45 PM »
Poorly written article, with a lot of assumptions built in...
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Investment Ideas / Re: FB - Facebook
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 05:30:30 PM »
FB numbers are stellar, IMO.

As I mentioned in another thread, I started investing in 1982.If someone had told me that there would be a company in 2018 that would grow their revenue from $8B to $12B or 50% YOY, while making $5.6B in operating profit and having FCF left to buy back stock at the same time, I would have thought he would be nuts.

Even more so, if he had told me that I can buy this for roughly 20x earnings.
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Investment Ideas / Re: CSU - Constellation Software
« Last post by Liberty on Today at 05:27:04 PM »
We're here in the back next to pool table,  8 people so far.
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The utilities are also separate entities. So theoretically if one region had something catastrophic happen (and I think a regulatory catastrophe is more likely than a physical catastrophe) they could always jettison one of them. IE if Nevada decides that utilities can't recover their capital or something, (and BHE loses the resulting lawsuits...) they would still have Iowa, or vice-versa.

I also think they utilities can at least theoretically recover the cost of a natural disaster from their customers via increased rates.
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Investment Ideas / Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 05:18:00 PM »
Quote
Quite frankly, I don't see how this ends well for him or Fairholme

It ends with him sailing on his yacht and his investors using public transportation.
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Investment Ideas / Re: CAOX - California Orchard Company
« Last post by Spekulatius on Today at 05:15:56 PM »
https://medium.com/@ScottMoneyHall/the-curious-case-of-the-california-orchard-company-d29936b83983

Awesome work digging into this and succeeding. I am not an OTC expert, but ai know that some guard their financials well. I still have one share of VULC ( had an order in for a hundred but somehow ended up with one share LOL) to remind me how management can stonewall. I have never seen any financials of VULC and have no idea what thr hell they are doing. My one share is up 3.5x from when I bought it.
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Investment Ideas / Re: NXPI -NXP Semiconductors N.V.
« Last post by ValueMaven on Today at 04:48:27 PM »
Yes...wait till the deal breaks however.  I am with you on the analysis. 

I think it goes below $100...

I am actively watching this one! 
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Investment Ideas / Re: CAOX - California Orchard Company
« Last post by goodnight-loving on Today at 04:38:46 PM »
Solid find.  What do you know about the other owners or management who are allowing it to be undervalued? 
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Investment Ideas / Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Last post by Ballinvarosig Investors on Today at 04:16:05 PM »
If the big "problem" with St. Joe is that almost all the land is inland, has no infrastructure, and is undeveloped, that should make them more-or-less immune from a hurricane...

St. Joe has some very nice waterfront / beachfront properties already developed.

The problem is that NWFL has a LOT of really CHEAP waterfront (some see this as an opportunity.)

You can get a smashing pad on the H2O for less than $700K (looking 4 a 2nd home?)

I still believe NWFL will eventually get a bump in values (it's too beautiful not to.)

10 years, 20 years WTFK when the area ever gets re-rated...
There is no beach front acreage according to the report.



I also remember that Whitney Tilson and David Einhorn got stuck into Joe quite some time back - http://www.tilsonfunds.com/JOE-10-11.pdf

Honestly, when I look at Berkowitz, I really think that he has completely lost the plot. I always remember in interviews, he used to always talk about counting the cash, or trying to kill an investment thesis. When you look at what Fairholme owns, it's like he's going completely against his historical investment thesis. What's worse is that when performance suffered, he sold off good investments and doubled down on the crappy ones. For someone of his experience, it's actually incredible to watch him make one of the most basic mistakes that first time investors make. It's all the more incredible that he is a fiduciary, and he's gambling other people's money away.

Quite frankly, I don't see how this ends well for him or Fairholme.
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Investment Ideas / Re: JOE - ST. JOE CO
« Last post by doughishere on Today at 04:08:32 PM »
The thesis seems Ok, but I wouldn’t short it anyways- the turnover is low enough that a short squeeze could be fabricated by someone’s. Also, Joe has cash on hand to do a tender for shares from Fairholme.

yea, i'm not shorting it, but think it's fascinating to watch the redemption cycle @ fairholme in conjunction with the increasing concentration in illiquid (JOE) and binary (Fannie prefs) bets. I'm amazed he still has $1B+ of client money.

i wonder what the legal fees are running at for Fairholme this point regarding fannie and freddie.
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