Recent Posts

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General Discussion / Re: Guardianship Scams
« Last post by LC on Today at 10:01:25 PM »
Holy crap this is some bullsh1t of the first degree. Truly terrible - and as the article mentions the problem persists in other retirement areas. I can't imagine what I'd do if someone tried pulling this on my folks.
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General Discussion / Re: What's the risk to be in money market funds?
« Last post by muscleman on Today at 09:32:55 PM »
Hi muscleman,
Not familiar with the specific instruments you mention but will offer the following comments:
-it seems "money market funds" are very variable and one needs to look under the hood to see the composition of assets and some funds have an unusually high level of commercial paper which occasionally can surprise (on the downside).
-these funds "break the buck" relatively frequently with unexpected bumps but sponsors typically "bail out" the temporary liquidity issue and it's no big deal.
-what happened in 2008 with Lehman failing and with nobody knowing exactly what short term commercial paper was really worth (remember GE?) was highly unusual and could not last. Government intervention was quasi-automatic (even if nobody as far as I know had considered this possibility) as a failing money market meant basically going back to barter trading. With government backing, confidence came back and the buck was no longer broken.
-with "risk-free" rates having gone up quite a bit in the last few months (3mo: 2,30% and 6mo: 2,46%) and if your opportunity cost for this category of your funds is 1,6%, why don't you go with plain vanilla stuff like SHV (minimal duration risk) or SHY (low duration risk)?

Thank you!
I see this one seems to have 45% in commerical paper. So this is usually a bit more risky than money market funds in US government debt only right?
http://www.federatedinvestors.com/FII/mutualfunds/details/portfolioCharacteristics.do?fundshareid=1825&basketid=2761
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Fairfax Financial / Re: IndiaInfoline
« Last post by Txvestor on Today at 09:20:51 PM »
ICUMD,
Drinking the Modi KoolAid eh? In the end it all delends on the India thesis. If oil spikes as seems likely, and if there is a global slowdown in trade of goods and services, which is also a real possibility, then the Rupee will likely crater.
Mr Modi's policies are centralizing power and control and I just do not see that as a recipe for economic success in a country as vast as India.
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Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by Ahab on Today at 08:06:33 PM »
https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/tesla-announces-date-for-third-quarter-2018-financial-results-and-webcast-20181022-01379

Unexpectedly early reporting, I wonder what this will amount to. Highly leveraged business, check. Overhyped product, check. Erratic management, check. Large upcoming maturities, check.
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Investment Ideas / Re: WDC - Western Digital
« Last post by tat2507 on Today at 08:06:11 PM »
I am seeing a non-recurring loss this year equal to about 12.53 per share. I am also seeing some pretty large non-recurring losses in past years as well. Can anyone explain what these are? and are they really non-recurring if they are happening every year?
I am having trouble trying to decipher whether the stated 2.12 EPS (gurufocus) is correct or if the 14.73 EPS is correct (valueline).
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Politics / Re: Opioids now kill more than 50,000 Americans a year
« Last post by rukawa on Today at 08:02:15 PM »
Quote
China was the largest economy in the world for many centuries until the Opium Wars.[3] In China, the period between 1839 and 1949 is referred to as the Century of Humiliation.

People made the same arguments about India...that it was one of the largest economy as share of gdp until the British but I find this tremendously misleading. During the 1900's the whole of Europe experienced the industrial revolution which was unprecedented in human history. Worldwide GDP increased by a factor of 10. So of course any country that didn't undergo this had its share of worldwide gdp enormously reduced. Share of GDP says more about what was happening in the rest of the world than it does what was happening in China.
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Investment Ideas / STNL - Sentinel Energy Services
« Last post by bathtime on Today at 08:01:07 PM »
The SPAC STNL acquired the energy infrastructure company Strike.

https://sentinelenergyservices.com/sntl-strike-10-19-2018

"Strike management will retain 75% of their existing ownership stake.... The business combination values Strike at a 5.4x 2019 projected adjusted EBITDA, implying a discount of approximately 32% to publicly traded peers.... The resulting strong balance sheet with net cash on hand and approximately $200 million of available liquidity will allow Strike to take advantage of several growth opportunities in the robust pipeline infrastructure services market and to provide working capital needs."

"Sentinel was formed in late 2017 for the purpose of entering into a business combination with one or more businesses, focused on the energy services and equipment sectors. Following its IPO in November 2017, Sentinel began its search for attractive assets that would benefit from Messrs. Gould’s and Shivram’s operating experience, industry connections and approach to business as well as CSL’s energy services industry focus and network of relationships. Mr. Gould had a 36-year career with Schlumberger Ltd, retiring as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer in 2012, after which he was Chairman of BG Group for four years until its sale to Shell. Mr. Shivram had a 25-year career with Schlumberger Ltd, with his last role as Vice President and Treasurer. In 2013, Mr. Shivram joined Weatherford International plc as the Chief Financial Officer and was then appointed Interim Chief Executive Officer in 2016 until his departure in 2017. Following the closing, the business will continue to be led by Strike’s current Chief Executive Officer and one of its founding partners, Steve Pate, together with his existing management team."

Bloomberg interview on the transaction:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-10-19/sentinel-to-purchase-strike-in-850-million-pipeline-deal-video
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Investment Ideas / Re: FCAU - Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
« Last post by plato1976 on Today at 07:22:41 PM »
what's a reasonable acquisition price in you guys' opinion?

The KKR deal pales in comparison to what Marchionne had in mind--either there were material underlying problems with MM that were not disclosed or KKR is getting a good deal.  And of course, the latter is more likely than the former...

I'm not sure "pales in comparison" is correct.  The $6.2B deal is only $0.6B away from the $6.8B Marchionne wanted from KKR before he passed away.  At that time, KKR had offered $5.8B.  FCAU needed two things to happen in any deal...a reasonable price and ensure that their component supply wasn't disrupted.  They got both.  Could they have held out for more...possibly.  But they got mostly what they were asking for and they can move forward.  Cheers!
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Fairfax Financial / Re: Price drop.
« Last post by John Hjorth on Today at 07:18:28 PM »
What does the market price of Fairfax really matter to you, if you're a real long term owner of a part of the business? - To me, Fairfax hasen't looked better than it does now for years.
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