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They have $100's of millions of assets that can be sold to easily cover.

Out of interest, what should they prioritise selling in your view? The obvious assets (DPM, Parq, and the Chad royalty) aren't at a point where they could be sold for full value. And the others, well, who knows if there is much value there at all?

I know I wasn't asked, but my 2 cents:

I think they'll be a bit aggressive with Parq.  I'm not basing this on anything more scientific than "reading between the lines", but I think they've realize the ramp-up will take longer than expected, the results won't be as rosy as predicted, and they can't keep putting more into it. So I expect they'll transact even if at a non-opportune time. 

The easiest thing for them to sell would be DPM.  But given Jon Goodman's predisposition toward mining, and his statements to the effect that DPM is a labour of love, and that it's undervalued etc., I'm guessing they'll try to hold on to that one.

The quickest way to raise cash would be to sell the $70m they have invested in Ecobalt and other small listed stakes, plus $30m in debt. I trust the valuations on those and I imagine a decent chunk of those will be sold as part of the portfolio review and just a few will be kept and nurtured. I'm not including the value of DST here which looks like an option worth keeping to me.

For me the second most obvious asset is to sell is Parq. I agree the language around Parq is only going in one direction. My guess is they'll get back something around what they put in but at least it will improve the liquidity profile.

I don't think it makes sense to sell DPM until the new mine is up and running.

Then you get into the harder stuff, where I find it very hard to know if there is meaningful realisable value: roughly $100m BV in other private equity (excluding Parq prefs) + TauRx + Android + Sarea which could be worth anything from $0 upwards. And Union - could be worth $50m or nothing (they have it on the books at the value of ICC but I don't know if they have the power to force a sale of ICC and distribution of cash so it may be meaningless). Finally Agrimarine and Dream 360. All of these could go but one has to assume it would take time and a haircut.

Politics / Re: Border patrol detention centers
« Last post by rb on June 20, 2018, 10:15:17 PM »
Aspects of this situation remind me of the mortgage crisis and foreclosure waves. People got greedy, bought houses they couldn't afford, and signed horrible contracts. All things they willfully chose to do. The repercussions were awful, but they had only themselves to blame for the situation. But then, there was all this outrage over the banks foreclosing on people and "taking away their homes"...

Nobody is forcing these people to illegally cross the border. Frankly, you have to be some kind of moron to even attempt this given the degree to which this has become such a hot button, politically charged issue. There has literally never been a more dangerous time to attempt something like this, and anyone doing so is a complete fool because you have to know what you are getting yourself into. Additionally it is quite selfish to knowingly, potentially put your kids through that as well.. Regardless of how awful the Trump administration policy is; and it is downright awful. Like the old Arabic laws that cut off people's hands for stealing an apple... As much as there are things I like about the new administration, certain things are just way too Machiavellian for me, this being one of them. But you know how you avoid this? Don't break the law. It's not exactly like these people are fleeing Raqqa or Mosul either...

The country as a whole, whether it be people taking out risky mortgages, inner city crime, people taking out retarded amounts of student loans for a questionable degree, or illegal immigration, etc, Americans need to stop justifying, rationalizing, and sympathizing with people who make stupid decisions and end up in a tough spot because of it.
The thing you're missing is that these people are not stupid or reckless. What you need to understand is that they're making this conscious choice because things at home are so bad that they are making the choice to migrate despite all the bad things that the Trump administration would do to them. Think about that and try to imagine how bad things are that between staying put and taking the worst that Trump and Sessions would throw at them. They choose the latter. Try to put yourself in their shoes and imagine having to make that decision for your family.

The moral question and outrage about what the current administration is doing is whether the US government should try to do its worst and hurt people just because it can, because these people are so desperate that they'll take anything.

Moving back to a more macro view. Again you have to understand that people migrate out of necessity. Because things are so shitty where they are. Not necessarily because they'll have it so great in America (they probably won't). It's the differential that counts. So these people would keep on coming. You could build walls, you could shoot them at the border. They'll keep on coming.

Now, as opposed to others here, I don't think that open borders should be a solution. Also there shouldn't be an expectation that you'll just move entire populations of countries into yours. But this is a problem and you have to deal with it. As I've said before you can't stop it with negative incentives (walls, cruelty, etc). In my view you deal with it by fixing their countries and dropping the profit motive. You've said in a previous post well if we help their country what will they give us? They have nothing to give, do you want them to pledge themselves as slaves? What you get is relief from the hoards that are massing on your borders. Which is something that you value.

The thing is that it probably doesn't take a whole lot to fix it. You don't have to turn these countries into America or Germany or something like that. Just make them somewhat less shitty. Think about it this way. Net migration with Mexico has been zero for about a decade or something like that. Despite the fact that you have corruption, rampant crime, and tens of thousands of murders, Mexicans are ok to more or less stay put. You basically don't have to turn Honduras and El Salvador into the US, you have to turn them into Mexico.

Finally, the thing is that the US has been sloppy. What I've written here about migrations are not insightful ideas. They're standard models that informed people know about. People like the ones that work for State and Defense. The situation in Central America has been deteriorating for a long while now and the US chose to do nothing and hoping for the best despite knowing better. Now you have thins mess. Things should have been dealt with long ago, they weren't. Action should be taken instead of kicking the can.
Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by mikek on June 20, 2018, 10:14:42 PM »
Yeah I give Altius management a lot of push back but that latest potash purchase was quite good. These potash royalties are likely to big huge wins over time. The cost of purchasing royalties in the last year and half has gone up quite a bit and they were able to close this latest potash purchase at a very good price.
Politics / Re: Canada should welcome more US migrants/refugees?
« Last post by rb on June 20, 2018, 08:54:31 PM »
Schwab, that's a beautiful and insightful post. No way I would have been able to deliver such quality.

But bottom line, everyone should chill out, we're all gonna be ok.
Investment Ideas / Re: ALS.TO - Altius Minerals
« Last post by linealdin on June 20, 2018, 08:43:55 PM »

Potash prices are about to make a big move. Producers are negotiating with China and India now on the potash price for next year. Producers targeting US$300, a 30% increase over the 2017-18 price.

Supply seems to have become an issue. It is unlikely that thereís enough potash, even at max production capacity, to fulfill the total needs of China and India. Potash in Brazil already trading above US$300 with brisk demand.


Potash bottomed around US$210 in 2016. It improved to around US$230. Now the big leap to over $300. Altius believes the inventive price for copper is US$500. I think Altius again caught the bottom of the cycle with the Liberty Potash and McChip deals.

That C$16 million in Altius annual potash revenue could improve to C$21 million with the 30% price bump.
Politics / Re: Border patrol detention centers
« Last post by rb on June 20, 2018, 08:29:17 PM »
I have to say rkbabang, I can't help but chuckle at your chutzpah.

Thanks. If I canít convince, at least I can entertain.
You've convinced me if only for selfish reasons. My car would feel more comfortable cruising at 90-100 mph than the current speed limits.  ;D

I would never propose rkbabang for president, but wouldn't mind him a City Councillor. Rk, you better keep fixing those potholes though.
Politics / Re: Border patrol detention centers
« Last post by rb on June 20, 2018, 08:18:34 PM »
1. Trump administration made the choice to enforce the existing immigration laws with zero tolerance.
2. Under the existing regulations, the government can't detain children for more than 20 days.
3. Most asylum cases take longer than 20 days to process.

Put 1, 2 and 3 together: you end up separating families. Parents remain detained; children get released into the care of another agency (HHS).

Here's what I don't get. Republicans can easily fix this. All they have to do is pass a narrow bill that scraps the Flores Consent Decree... the regulation that imposes the 20 day limit on child detention.

This article is a good explainer about Flores. The author is a conservative. National Review is a conservative publication. No liberal propaganda here:

The Truth about Separating Kids


"4) Congress can fix this. Congress can change the rules so the Flores consent decree will no longer apply, and it can appropriate more money for family shelters at the border. This is an obvious thing to do that would eliminate the tension between enforcing our laws and keeping family units together. The Trump administration is throwing as many resources as it can at the border to expedite the process, and it desperately wants the Flores consent decree reversed. Despite some mixed messages, if the administration had its druthers, family units would be kept together and their cases settled quickly.

The missing piece here is Congress, but little outrage will be directed at it, and probably nothing will be done. And so our perverse system will remain in place and the crisis at the border will rumble on."

Republicans control both chambers of Congress. They can scrap Flores without Democratic votes. Is there any good reason why they are not pursuing this option???
My guess is that Congress was going to do just that. That's why you had the executive order stopping child separations today. It was explained to Trump that Congress was going to pass a veto proof bill to stop the practice. That would have been very embarrassing hence executive order.
General Discussion / Re: Your Username/Persona.
« Last post by rb on June 20, 2018, 08:13:14 PM »
So, try to engage people with courtesy and dignity.  It doesn't always work that way, but if you succeed almost all of the time, your digital footprint is not an albatross around your neck.  The use of a basic pseudonym is also a straightforward way to discourage anybody but the most enthusiastic of sleuths.  Sanj knows my true identity, but I don't worry about it.  If it's revealed, it's revealed.  I have little to hide.  The pseudonym has been appropriate to insulate my former employers from whatever I post on the internet, but it's not the end of the world if that anonymity is lost.

Basically this. I don't see the reason why you should go ahead and behave like an absolute dick just because the internet may provide you with some veil of anonymity. But for reason people do. But I wouldn't write anything here that I wouldn't say to someone in person.

Then there's always common sense on how to use the internet. I don't post drunk pictures of myself on Instagram and I don't feel the need to "share" everything about myself. As an example, if you don't get hired because your prospective employer is concerned about hiring on alcoholic because of all the pictures you have on facebook or instagram of you partying, it's not the internet's fault. It's your fault.
The one thing that's really changed with technology is not the Internet's seemingly ability to back up stuff. It's that today there's always a camera next to you ready to record you and document usually your bad deeds. Every single one of us has done something bad or something we're not proud of at one point or another. In the past it was a private matter that you would end up regretting or making amends for. Today It has a very real possibility of being a public issue and well documented. My guess is that technology usage etiquette will evolve in society otherwise everyone will be a villain.
Personal Finance / Re: New Car Buying Tips, Please??
« Last post by Spekulatius on June 20, 2018, 07:57:17 PM »
Some car dealers are actually easy to deal with. the first thing I did was test driving different vehicles to find out which one I liked. I went to the closest dealers with no intention to buy, the gold was just to find out which car I liked. once the decision was made,  I  looked at TruCar prices, took a round number in the 20%tile for the car I wanted and shopped online for quotes. I looked at dealers specifically, that had higher than average Ratings in yelp or google, but sometimes they are not easy to find.

Then I named my fixed price for the specific model and asking for online quotes. quite a few answered that they donít have that specific model in my desired colors (but of course they had more expensive ones) to which I replied that I can wait until they have one. I took the offer from the first dealer that offered me the car for the price I wanted.

Some dealers want to screw you with extra fees (advertising etc), which one should not accept. Be ready to walk, if they keep dragging out the process to wear you down. If you walk, donít come back to the same dealer, or at least make it a point to talk to a different salesperson (if you canít avoid the dealership) as a deterrent tomolay the same game over.

Other dealers are straightforward and you get exactly washable you ask for. A really good negotiator can do better and possibly get free extras, but a fair deal is good enough for me.
Investment Ideas / Re: TSLA - Tesla Motors
« Last post by rb on June 20, 2018, 07:50:36 PM »
Why would another truck manufacturer want to build trucks for Tesla?
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