Author Topic: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?  (Read 16681 times)

MarkS

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2017, 04:59:17 PM »
I've been looking at GGP, KIM and sold some covered puts on SPG.

Thanks
Mark


EricSchleien1

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2017, 09:40:53 PM »
Recently bought some more Buckle (BKE)

DooDiligence

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2017, 06:24:45 AM »
Berkshire owns Garanimal's & I own Carter's.

I believe children's clothing is a better category than tween's, teens & adults (purchasers don't have to contend with whether or not the baby likes the outfit or not - except from a comfort standpoint.)

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Pro's

I like their e-commerce efforts & recently opened a GA warehouse in support of online (bent a knee to Amazon by making a presence in that channel just like all the other competitors in this space: Children's Place, Gymboree, Disney, Gap, Gerber, etc.)

E-commerce had a 22% comp increase in Q4 2016 (Amazon initiative not yet started in this Q)

Most of their sales are from Canada & the US.

Sales/profits over the past decade continuously rising (no decreases even during the recession.)

GM increased from 34% to 43% over the past decade.

Nice FCF.

Returns cash to shareholders with modest buybacks & dividends.

Employs reasonable debt.

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Con's

Wholesale business is declining in the face of private label.

Vibrant market in "hand me downs"

Retail is a black hole...

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Miscellaneous:

Oshkosh brand has a lot of room to expand to catch up with Carter's brand.

Newer, side by side (Carter's/Oshkosh) stores experiencing mid single digit comp increases.

Partnered with Pou Sheng International (Holdings) Ltd., to open retail stores in China.
(Pou Sheng manages more than 8,000 stores for international brands including Nike and Sketchers.)

Plans on opening 40 outlets in China this year.

Management understands that children's wear in China has generally weak brand awareness and that the market is fragmented due to high competition, making it challenging to stand out.

Also has a presence on Alibaba but I'm not sure how much this channel contributes...

Could turn out great or could be a disaster...
abc | abev | aapl | bbh | brk.b | cri | cvs | dva | dis | ew | ffxdf | gpc | mo | nvo | sftby | vde

8 months left in the BRK.B 1st of the month DCA program (hoping 4 a selloff 2 go all in!)

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https://twitter.com/tunawish

kab60

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2017, 06:37:07 AM »
I've been looking at L Brands, Bed Bath & Beyond as well as Gamestop. Even though they've been slaughtered I don't think they're necessarily cheap considering the challenges that they face. So far I only play retail indirectly via Seritage and Revlon (and perhaps Auto Nation if that qualifies).

undervalued

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2017, 09:28:32 AM »
There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

GregS

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2017, 10:11:18 AM »
There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates.

This sentiment is exactly why I'm looking.

KCLarkin

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2017, 11:30:18 AM »
There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates.

This sentiment is exactly why I'm looking.

It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do.

rb

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #17 on: April 05, 2017, 11:32:02 AM »
There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates.

This sentiment is exactly why I'm looking.

It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do.
Return policy?

DTEJD1997

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #18 on: April 05, 2017, 12:16:12 PM »
There is only one winner in this space. That's AMZN. Retailers need to change their business model. To give people reason why they need to come to the stores. To try out stuff in the store then buy on AMZN is not a reason. The only reason why you would investigate this space is for cigarbut types, if they own their real estates.

If you truly believe this, then what value would be left in the real estate?  Are other retailers going to buy the empty stores?  I would posit that only so many empty Sears & JCP stores can be reworked into non-retail space...

Jurgis

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Re: Anybody else looking at bombed out retail sector?
« Reply #19 on: April 05, 2017, 12:22:47 PM »
It is interesting to look at the price chart of Best Buy versus Amazon since the end of 2012. I don't know why anyone would still go to a Best Buy, but I guess some do.
Return policy?

I bought Xbox and I think one laptop on BestBuy online in last couple years. Prices were cheaper than Amazon. I haven't been in their store for 5 years I think. I do online comparison shop for bigger ticket items or if I suspect I can get a better deal outside Amazon.

Re: retail - no plans to invest in the sector. We liked going to TJX and DSW, but haven't been there for a while now. We still buy clothes/shoes in TJX/DSW. Wife shops at URBN brands and Forever 21 (private) once in a while. I might have to go to Burlington Coat Factory next winterish to buy couple winter coats. Last time we went, store looked like Kmart--. :/

I wonder if NKE and/or UA will be great investments here. Barron's says yes.  ;)

Disclosure: We have a tiny bit of AMZN, a bit of TJX, and a tiny bit of URBN. Not a suggestion that any of these are buys/holds/whatever.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2017, 12:28:03 PM by Jurgis »