Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 291580 times)

valueInv

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #110 on: December 10, 2013, 06:08:02 AM »
What is a good start to learn the telecom industry? I am looking into GNCMA, but feel no where near qualified to make a judgement so far. I am reading Malone's book, cable cowboys. Just start with reading 10k's? Found a book on amazon, but it seemed v technical, and had 800 pages :) . So that seems a bit too much for just one stock pick.

I've got an industry primer from 2007.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7ZQujnVzj_9ZDNoWXZsbi16VzA/edit?usp=sharing

I've found it useful to Google "telecom industry primer" or whichever sector you're looking for. Sometimes it's easier to search by filetype in google as pdf.
Some are outdated like one from 1999.

There was one site that had 99 primers (a torrent file though)
thx, v helpfull. Didnt think of that.


Not sure how useful this is but I have a primer  for Banking.

tx fareastwarriors

http://equity-research.com/reports/

Nice!


yadayada

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #111 on: December 10, 2013, 06:59:41 AM »
What is a good start to learn the telecom industry? I am looking into GNCMA, but feel no where near qualified to make a judgement so far. I am reading Malone's book, cable cowboys. Just start with reading 10k's? Found a book on amazon, but it seemed v technical, and had 800 pages :) . So that seems a bit too much for just one stock pick.

I've got an industry primer from 2007.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7ZQujnVzj_9ZDNoWXZsbi16VzA/edit?usp=sharing

I've found it useful to Google "telecom industry primer" or whichever sector you're looking for. Sometimes it's easier to search by filetype in google as pdf.
Some are outdated like one from 1999.

There was one site that had 99 primers (a torrent file though)
thx, v helpfull. Didnt think of that.


Not sure how useful this is but I have a primer  for Banking.

tx fareastwarriors

http://equity-research.com/reports/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuognicaN04

wknecht

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #112 on: December 15, 2013, 10:17:10 AM »
Hi Packer - Thanks for taking the time to answer so many questions on this thread.

I was wondering, do you still own LICT?

I started a position in this recently, but reading through the FTR thread has raised my skepticism quite a bit. Granted, LICT has less debt, and is not increasing leverage by paying huge dividends like FTR. Reading the LICT reports though, I found myself making similar arguments as those on the FTR thread. But LICT seems to be doing a pretty decent job of stabalizing revenue by diversifying away from wirelines. So I guess I'm wondering how they've performed as a business relative to your expectations and competitors, as well as your thoughts on their prospects of continuing to replace wireline revenue?

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #113 on: December 15, 2013, 11:06:25 AM »
I do.  They have done a good job stemming the decline it is about 0% now on a revenue comp basis.  The only other competitors with positive revenue comps are ALSK, GNCMA and HCOM.  So on a relative basis they are doing well.  However the 3Q numbers versus the YE 2012 numbers do show a deterioration from an increase in revenue to flat and from a flat EBITDA to a declining EBITDA of 8% annually.

It sells for less than 3x EBITDA but this is really a private company where the exit event timeframe is unknown.  I have not increased my position due to its illiquid nature, the lack of revenue growth versus other comps and finding other more liquid names to invest in.  If your timeframe is LT (over 5 years+) this will be a good investment (if at some point they can increase revenues) but if you need any liquidity I would find something else.

Packer   

wknecht

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #114 on: December 16, 2013, 06:41:49 AM »
Thanks I see.

Another very general question - how much do the USF and ICC reforms concern you from the perspective of LICT?  There doesn't seem to be too large of an effect so far ($1.4mm in revenue for 9q ended 9/30), but the implementation period is pretty extended. Do you hear first hand perspectives around the impact of these on RLECs generally?

SwedishValue

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #115 on: December 18, 2013, 05:04:12 AM »
Packer, I am very impressed with your approach and long-term returns.

I was wondering how much of your portfolio is SHLD and how do you go about estimating intrinsic value in the business?

Greetings from Sweden.

tombgrt

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #116 on: December 18, 2013, 05:08:42 AM »
I think he meant he owns AIQ, which is like SHLD in terms of volatility.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #117 on: December 18, 2013, 05:50:18 AM »
Yes I do own AIQ, I don't own SHLD except through ownership of Fairholme.  I really don't understand SHLD and how the RE value can be realized in part because I have never seen anyone in the past do this.

Packer

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #118 on: December 18, 2013, 05:54:26 AM »
As to USF and ICC, I have seen declines with all RLECs.  I don't have first hand knowledge but in my mind the winners will be the ones who can grow the new services business (internet, TV, wireless, broadband) faster than the USF and ICC revenue declines.  The ones who appear to be doing this are ALSK, GNCMA and HCOM and possibly LICT and FRP if they can go from negative comps to positive.


Packer

gary17

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #119 on: December 19, 2013, 01:11:36 AM »
Hi Packer
Not sure if this question has been asked before.... for certain type of capital intensive businesses you've indicated that it's more appropriate to look at EBITDA instead of EPS... so in this case is there an equivalent of "ROE" figure that you look at to measure profitability... and if you think it's worth looking at this figure for the past several years. Thanks!