Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 292039 times)

finetrader

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #80 on: November 24, 2013, 12:22:57 PM »
I agree with your observations Packer.

The treat is video streaming. And I guess that's why we hear tv satellite providers looking for ways to become an internet provider. Be it by buying radio waves that would allow to send internet signal or by buying wired network.

As for cable companies, if video streaming become big I'm pretty confident they will find a way to charge more for internet services to compensate for loss on tv services. The last mile providers have always found a way to protect their revenues.

As for data (video) transmission via cell towers, I'm not an expert but my understanding is that it is quite costly to transmit large bandwidth.
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racemize

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #81 on: November 24, 2013, 03:09:08 PM »
Yes, I'm mostly concerned with Internet replacing TV services, particularly for satellites (looking at DTV right now).  It seems like the transition will be much easier for cable companies than satellite providers, unless they pull off the cellular internet bundling...

Absolutely agree that free Wi-Fi is not a threat--seems weird that they would mention that in the article, honestly.

meiroy

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #82 on: November 24, 2013, 05:56:22 PM »
[quote author=Packer16 link=topic=8617.msg143115#msg143115 date=1385319654As Malone has stated the key is the wide pipe.  If entertainment starts to use more bandwidth you will see growth in broadband providers both telco and cable and Starbucks wifi hot spot just won't suffice.

Packer
[/quote]

Just to invert this, if someone like Google comes out with disruptive technology it's game over?

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #83 on: November 24, 2013, 06:07:05 PM »
If a disruptive technology was developed (call it super-free wifi), it could be disruptive but the infrastructure to make it work has to paid for by someone.  The data/bandwidth has to go across some network that someone has to pay for in part at least.  You also have the issue of dislodging customers tied to an existing network.  These all become issues if Google comes up with a yet to be discovered technology alot of hurdles.

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Liberty

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #84 on: November 24, 2013, 06:16:08 PM »
Google's work with fiber and wifi and such is mostly to catalyze others to improve their service (that's my understanding, anyway). I seriously doubt that they want to be in the business of becoming the world's ISP and deal with all the headaches this brings (you actually need customer service, at some point...). They'd rather keep the pressure on so the internet stays fast and relatively open so they can sell ads without having to do all that.
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meiroy

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #85 on: November 24, 2013, 06:24:58 PM »

Google was just an example because they are, well, Google and there's already an existing example of https://fiber.google.com/about/. I actually think it's definitely in their interest to have "neutral" infrastructure, but lets not turn it into a discussion about Google...


Anyhow, the question was in general if a disruptive bandwidth technology would be a death call for the industry.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #86 on: November 24, 2013, 06:34:24 PM »
I think in term of killing these firms, it would depend upon how fast the change occurs.  If you look at telecom history they have been able to co-op both wireless and internet technologies to date.  Newspapers on the other hand were hurt by the internet and did not come up with an effective response (paywalls and unique content not given away for free) fast enough to loose ad dollars.

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ageofsocrates

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #87 on: November 24, 2013, 06:51:50 PM »
Hi Packer,

Just had a couple of questions. Hope you could share further.

Any key financial metrics that you look at ( apart from ev/ebitda)? Any checklist that you go thru first before investing? Any investing mistakes that you can share ?

Many thanks

investor-man

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #88 on: November 24, 2013, 06:58:29 PM »
Hi Packer,

Thanks for taking questions. I'm a fairly accomplished engineer, so I am comfortable with math and statistics, but I'm a fairly neophyte investor. Do you have any books you recommend for coming up to speed on valuation? Beginner? Intermediate? Advanced? I've read maybe 10 value investing books that you'd expect to find on the shelves of Barnes and Noble and I'm looking for something deeper than them. Have you read Demodaran's books? Also do you feel obtaining a CFA is a worthwhile endeavor?

Thanks
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Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #89 on: November 24, 2013, 07:45:56 PM »
The primary metrics I use for non-financial firms are EV/EBITDA, EV/EV FCF and Equity/FCF.  I also look at coverage ratios for levered firms and track trends in EBITDA, FCF and leverage ratios over time to see what the story is historically.  I also compare these trends to comps to see where they fall out against other possible investments.  The primary mistakes have been buying levered firms that blew up.  The lesson - stay away from levered firms who have low coverage and are trending worse.

As to valuation books, Damodaran's are probably some of the best.  He is a great communicator.  There is Damodaran on Valuation and his web site has alot of data and information.  At one point I think you could audit his class remotely.  If you have the chance do this as he is great speaker/communicator.  There is another book we use in business valuation (How to Value a Business by Shannon Pratt) but I think it gets into specifics that are not very useful outside of the appraisal profession.  Other good concept books include: The Intelligent Investor, Security Analysis (2nd & 6th Edition - really good footnotes), The Most Important Thing (Annotated Version), Modern Security Analysis (Whitman & Diz), You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (Greenblatt), How to Make Money with Junk Bonds (Levin) and 4 in the Little Book Series (Still Beats the Market, Valuation, Behavioral Investing and That Builds Wealth).

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