Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 290490 times)

plato1976

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #150 on: December 24, 2013, 10:25:07 AM »
Really appreciate your sharing !

In your investment history, is there a case that an initially small position (not on top10 list) turned out to be a huge win and impacted the portfolio performance in a material way. In other words, if you just have held your top10 or top5 positions, would the result be much different ?
(I am wondering if your performance would have been even more stellar if you had just held your top 5 positions...)


I currently have been looking overseas as there appears to be more bargains there than in the US today.  In the past, I have invested in Brazil and some Russian oil companies and now have holdings in Italy and Greece and am looking at firms in Australia and S. Korea.  I have not bought distressed debt but have purchased some equity of firms who have gone through BK (NTL, Magellan Health, RCN and Hawaiian Telecom) and equity of some of these holders (AIQ an Oaktree holding).

Same challenges as 10 years ago -  buying when others don't like a company.  I do have some purchase constraints on some microcaps that have small amounts of volume but my sweet spot is higher on the market cap scale.  The issue I have had with microcaps has been getting out.  My best performing microcap (Acme Communications) was a liquidation so that was not an issue.  I don't hate any aspect of investing per se but the hardest part is watching a good idea getting cheaper (which happens most of the time with me) if the market is going up.

In terms of market access, I have switched brokers so now I can buy most international equities that I did not have access to previously.  At this point, my universe is large enough and not totally explored. 

Next 10 years I don't know.  At some point I may start a fund but I need to get my 2 kids through college first.  In addition, I like what I do with folks I enjoy working with so retirement is a way off yet.

Packer
« Last Edit: December 24, 2013, 10:38:43 AM by plato1976 »


Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #151 on: December 24, 2013, 12:33:11 PM »
I have bought some Intralot - a Greek gaming machine and lottery operator.   As to scale model that can be an advantage.  I have looked and like one company Emeco which is a depressed equipment leasor in Australia.  I am blessed with everything I would want or require (God, great wife and family and good job and friends) so I don't have any thing on my Christmas list.

In terms of bottom stocks outperforming, I can't think of any as I typically will try to load up on stocks I think have outstanding upside.  My highest % gainers have only been 5 to 7x gainers.   

Packer 




yadayada

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #152 on: December 24, 2013, 06:22:20 PM »
Interesting, ill look into those :) . How do you screen for ideas? Now that i have a decent understanding of how to value a company, I find screening for ideas the hardest in this market.

LC

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #153 on: December 24, 2013, 08:44:44 PM »
Interesting, ill look into those :) . How do you screen for ideas? Now that i have a decent understanding of how to value a company, I find screening for ideas the hardest in this market.

I am having a hard time as well...I'm taking out the "cheapness" screening tools (low P/E, P/B, etc.) and looking for quality company, then using my own analysis to determine cheapness. So I've been screening for sales growth, acceptable debt levels, and decent margins. Then I go from there, and see if any stock price increases this year has been due to p/e expansion along with the S&P or due to continuously improving business.
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Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #154 on: December 24, 2013, 08:56:37 PM »
I dont' have a screen per se but I look at companies that pass a screen to see if a bargain exists.  I also look on an industry basis (by looking at the industry comps) to see if a bargain exists.

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frommi

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #155 on: December 24, 2013, 09:17:47 PM »
Where do you get the data of european companies? My greatest problem investing somewhere else as the US is getting quality data cheap. Or do you use a bloomberg at work for that?

tombgrt

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #156 on: December 25, 2013, 08:50:59 AM »
I have bought some Intralot - a Greek gaming machine and lottery operator.   


Had a quick glance (have to get ready for our christmas dinner.. ;)). Revenue cagr of over 8% since 2007 if you assume revenue of 1.5b EUR for 2013, EBITDA actually lower. I assume much of that growth comes from an increased online presence? How does this compare to other gaming/betting companies? Management also seems to own a very significant stake. The stock does seem to correlate heavily with the Greece stock market which is probably why the bargain (assuming it is) exists, although it has hit a low of 0.67 in 2012 with ASE (Athens Stock Exchange) hitting an equally low bottom compared to today's price.

I obviously have yet to look properly at this name but what metrics do you deem most relevant here Packer? TIA and happy holidays!

yadayada

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #157 on: December 25, 2013, 09:47:39 AM »
what is up with their tax rate? isnt corporate tax rate only like 20 or 25% in greece? the give alot of their ebit away to taxes.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #158 on: December 25, 2013, 10:32:47 AM »
For Intralot, the investor presentation provides alot of data.  Since 2006, the revenue has shifted from  Greece/Turkey to the RoW, from 42% of revenues in 2006 to about 8% in 2102.  The number of contracts has increased from 20 to 84.  The primary metrics I am looking at are EV/EBITDA and FCF yield.  These types of companies trade for 8 to 9x EBITDA typically.

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phil_Buffett

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #159 on: December 26, 2013, 05:21:17 AM »
For Intralot, the investor presentation provides alot of data.  Since 2006, the revenue has shifted from  Greece/Turkey to the RoW, from 42% of revenues in 2006 to about 8% in 2102.  The number of contracts has increased from 20 to 84.  The primary metrics I am looking at are EV/EBITDA and FCF yield.  These types of companies trade for 8 to 9x EBITDA typically.

Packer

packer the presentation was very nice. thank you for the idea. intralot will reduce cap ex in the future and will have a bigger fcf. so if i take the fcf or the ebitda and calculate it, this Company is very undervalued. great idea packer  :)