Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 290469 times)

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #200 on: January 26, 2014, 06:47:30 PM »
I was close to selling but will hold on given the pullback.  I have a FV of GM of around $55 so the warrants still have nice upside.

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luck

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #201 on: January 28, 2014, 05:12:37 PM »
hi packer-

Just reading about Li Lu of Himalaya Capital investing in Aereo and also came across this article:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/how-t-mobile-and-aereo-will-change-your-life.html

"The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear a lawsuit brought by broadcasters, who say Aereoís runaround is illegal. Broadcasters are worried that cable operators will build their own Aereos, threatening $4 billion in retransmission fees, which are expected to double by 2017. At the same time, Aereo challenges the cable industryís ability to bundle channels into costly take-it-or-leave-it packages. And Aereo could also upset the comfy network-affiliate model by making, say, CBSís New York programming available to Los Angeles viewers.

Aereoís CEO, Chet Kanojia, may be less colorful than Legere, but his aim is similar: to disrupt the cozy status quo that is lucrative for the big players yet leaves customers unsatisfied.


Given your cable industry knowledge, wondering what your thoughts are on potential disruption?  thanks in advance.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #202 on: January 28, 2014, 06:47:02 PM »
The most damage is going to be in big cities and to distributors in those cities.  The large cable cos will figure out ways to make money with this and the small guys like GNCMA should be unaffected.  I recently sold my TV holdings as they approached fair value.

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luck

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #203 on: February 07, 2014, 07:45:16 AM »
hi packer-

some great thoughts on the $DXM thread about risks related to the debt.  wondering if you've  ever looked at yellow media,  $YLWDF? 

to me,  it looks cheap on an EV/EBITDA basis.  however, not sure how fast they will be able to move to digital and also how aggressively they will pay down the debt with the free cash flow.  what got me interested in this was the new CEO & goldentree asset management's involvement.  thanks in advance.

jm25

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #204 on: February 07, 2014, 10:47:17 AM »
hi packer-

some great thoughts on the $DXM thread about risks related to the debt.  wondering if you've  ever looked at yellow media,  $YLWDF? 

to me,  it looks cheap on an EV/EBITDA basis.  however, not sure how fast they will be able to move to digital and also how aggressively they will pay down the debt with the free cash flow.  what got me interested in this was the new CEO & goldentree asset management's involvement.  thanks in advance.

If looking at Yellow, could always play it with the warrants.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #205 on: February 07, 2014, 06:58:50 PM »
I have looked at these in the past and took a quick look at Yellow.  The primary reason I have not pursued this is the declining customer count revenue and EBITDA.  These leveraged "melting ice cube" types of companies are like swimming against the current and in most cases I have been swept away in BK. 

An analogy is in the telcos but some of them having increasing revenue and EBITDA (GNCMA, ALSK and HCOM) and some having increases Q-over-Q (FRP) but most continue to decline (the rest of the telcos).  If I could find a directory company with increasing revenue and EBITDA I would be interested but I have yet to find one.   

This may turn out to be a good investment, I don't know.  All I know is I have tried to invest in these types of companies and have been carried away to BK (a weakness of mine) so now I stay away because I can find increasing revenue and cash flow business in mature/declining industries.

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CorpRaider

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #206 on: February 09, 2014, 04:01:56 PM »
Issat you posting about leverage over on bogleheads?

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #207 on: February 09, 2014, 07:17:45 PM »
That is me.  Those folks appear to be more interested in discussing those types of items and I am receiving some nice contrary views.

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yitech

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #208 on: February 09, 2014, 08:06:20 PM »
That is me.  Those folks appear to be more interested in discussing those types of items and I am receiving some nice contrary views.

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I just checked it out. Personally, I think 20% is conservative enough. I used more myself. Buffett does much more using insurance float though it's uncorrelated to the stock markets and he doesn't get any margin calls! His long-term bullish short puts (insurance float on protecting stock downfalls) on a basket of three indices are correlated with the stock markets though. But he doesn't have to post collaterals on these puts! I think a bit of leverage is fine if you are aware that you may need to dial it down when markets get volatile. In the long run, it does enhance returns... as Eric can attest...

OK, I should stop here before I getting yelled at for promoting leverage.

PS: Above is relevant only to stock markets... If you are take margin to long debt, you are effectively short credit spreads or creating a short CDS position, so you should watch over credit spreads of whichever debt you are long assuming margin interest rate stays constant. But margin debt are floating rate debt based on LIBOR or Prime, so you may want to invest in floating rate debt to partially hedge against yield curve mismatching. You can check out Ray Dalio's all-weather strategy... though it hadn't worked out too well last couple of years due to the volatility of yield curves caused by the anticipation(guessing) of Fed tapering.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 06:04:37 AM by yitech »

gary17

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #209 on: February 09, 2014, 09:01:54 PM »
i think use of leverage also has to do your current age / job situation

for me - because my portfolio is small enough that the leverage loss would be about my year worth of after tax salary so it'll hurt, but not the end of the world.... and i feel that instead of borrowing money for a bigger house in the overpriced vancouver market or a new car, i'm using that fund to buy good business with a good margin of safety - i think there's enough safety in my personally circumstance.

also, i think when we start talking about leverage, we are talking more about trading stock - i rather think of it as borrowing to buy a business - just like how a company would borrow money to finance growth. 

just my 2 cents  Gary