Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 293912 times)

muscleman

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #490 on: February 14, 2016, 11:53:31 AM »
Packer, have you taken a look at VDTH? The EBITDA growth is very very strong, but I don't quite understand the moats for that company and for satellite broadcasters in general.
For cable cos, I understand that they are mostly monopolies in their local markets, but how would satellite broadcasters compete with cable cos? It is surprising to me that even in the US as of today, these two co-exist.
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JoelS

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #491 on: March 16, 2016, 02:30:59 PM »
Packer,

I have "The Great Crash and its aftermath" in my hands and noticed your recommendation on this forum. Have you altered your investment strategy at all, in light of what you learnt from the book? If yes, how?

Cheers,
Joel

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #492 on: March 16, 2016, 05:48:07 PM »
Packer, have you taken a look at VDTH? The EBITDA growth is very very strong, but I don't quite understand the moats for that company and for satellite broadcasters in general.
For cable cos, I understand that they are mostly monopolies in their local markets, but how would satellite broadcasters compete with cable cos? It is surprising to me that even in the US as of today, these two co-exist.

I have and have a few reservations, namely, I can purchase cheaper satellite TV operators like SKY Perfect for a lower EBITDA multiple and the thesis is predicated upon subscriber growth.  As to where satellite TV can do better than cable, it is in rural areas in the developed world and larger areas in the developing world as they have little telecom/cable infrastrutcure.

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Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #493 on: March 16, 2016, 05:50:31 PM »
Packer,

I have "The Great Crash and its aftermath" in my hands and noticed your recommendation on this forum. Have you altered your investment strategy at all, in light of what you learnt from the book? If yes, how?

Cheers,
Joel

I have not altered my strategy but I did learn which industries did well and not so well in a depression and how toady is different than the 1930s when folks were losing their life savings to bank failures.

Packer

muscleman

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #494 on: March 23, 2016, 09:32:48 AM »
Hi Packer,
    I've seen a number of cable companies boasting that their return on invested capital is over 30%, but I don't know how to calculate that number.
    One approximation that I can apply is to use Adjusted OIBDA/(net PPE + accumulated depreciation), but I understand that some PPEs were added 20+ years ago, so the gross PPE number is artificially low, and the result of this calculation gives an ROIC number artificially high. But even with this kind of calculation, LBYTK's ROIC is about 24%, not 30%+.
    I wonder what's your thought on this?


Thanks,
MM
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

Graham Osborn

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #495 on: March 31, 2016, 05:49:23 PM »
Packer,

I have "The Great Crash and its aftermath" in my hands and noticed your recommendation on this forum. Have you altered your investment strategy at all, in light of what you learnt from the book? If yes, how?

Cheers,
Joel

I have not altered my strategy but I did learn which industries did well and not so well in a depression and how toady is different than the 1930s when folks were losing their life savings to bank failures.

Packer

I haven't read the book but will check it out.  Just remember though - the big difference between the 1930s-40s and the 2000s-10s was the presence of concerted central bank intervention to redistribute losses in the latter case.  Redistribute, not reduce.  Because central banks neither create nor eliminate real economic value, they cannot change the ultimate outcome but only the kinetics.  I like to think of what we are seeing now as the slow-motion version of what happened in '29.  The ultimate destination is the same, but we are taking the scenic/ anesthetic route.

muscleman

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #496 on: April 06, 2016, 09:08:29 PM »
Packer, do you think cableco's focus on EBITDA instead of net earnings is appropriate? I think this is only true when depreciation is not real. I think that's the case for real estate.
Cable is kind of like real estate but not exactly so. A house bought 40 years ago is worth much much more today. Not sure if a cable laid down 40 years ago is still worth anything today?
I am muslceman. I have more muscle than brain!

fareastwarriors

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #497 on: April 08, 2016, 04:12:50 PM »
I do have an indirect interest, I own Sequoia.  As to VRX, I have been watching from the stands and am not sure how much I can add to what has been said.  The key question in my mind is how extensive are the problems at Philidor in terms of other distributors.  If Philidor is it, then at today's price it is cheap.  If there is more then there may be more downside.  A final point that reduced my enthusiasm are Munger's comments.  He usually is right.

Packer

Packer, do you still own Sequoia Fund? Did you sell or buy more?

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #498 on: April 09, 2016, 06:24:10 AM »
In general, EBITDA can be used in situations where there is a large one-time outlay where the benefits will be seen over years and there is customer lock-in.  Real estate is the extreme example.  Cable has some of these characteristics also however, there are more frequent "one-time" outlays but there is customer lock-in.  EBITDA also removes the non-cash amortization costs for consolidating industries.

As to Sequoia, I still own it.  I was planning on going to the annual meeting & maybe asking for a change to the management agreement with a lower fee with possibility of the fee going back to historical levels if they outperform at historical margins.

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jay21

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #499 on: April 11, 2016, 08:10:23 AM »
Any thoughts on the broadcasters? Seems to be the type of security you would look at

Thanks
@jay_21_