Author Topic: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!  (Read 252195 times)

Snorky

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #570 on: March 01, 2018, 03:09:19 AM »
Thank you for your answer. So 10-15% is an appropriate discount rate in your eyes for a relative stable small cap business with cyclical cash flows ?! Would you prefer 10 or go more conservative and take 15 ?!


Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #571 on: March 01, 2018, 04:51:24 AM »
The discount rate depends upon the business you are talking about, whether it is levered & other company specific risk associated with cash flows (like key man risk).  Also if it is a private business there may be a discount for lack of marketability if you are purchasing a minority interest in the business.  You can PM with the details & I can provide you some further guidance if you do not want to disclose the details here.

Packer

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #572 on: March 18, 2018, 10:00:32 AM »
Quick question Packer-  notice you invest heavily in international stocks.   How do you think about currency exposure impacting your investment returns?   I'm always faced with the challenge of either 1)  exposing myself to currency volatility (which I have no opinion on and is generally completely removed from the businesses fundamentals) or 2)  locking up capital to hedge out currency volatility (dampens returns i.e. capital opportunity cost).   

Would very much appreciate any thoughts on your framework for thinking about currency risk.

thefatbaboon

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #573 on: April 05, 2018, 11:22:57 PM »
Packer,

I think you might still be invested in Gray...

Any ideas about why we've still had no announcement of retransmission renewals for the remaining "big" two deals that were referred to as already being delayed on the Q4 call and expected to be completed within a week or two?

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #574 on: April 06, 2018, 06:44:18 AM »
As to currency risk, I include any possible depreciation risk in my estimate of value (reduce it by expected depreciation for currencies like the SA rand).  For more stable currencies I do not make any adjustment. To determine stability I look at changes in currency since 2000.

I still am invested in Grey & I have no more information than anyone else on re-trans deals.  These guys have typically made good deals.  Maybe the uncertainty here is an explanation for recent price decline.

Packer

Snorky

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #575 on: April 06, 2018, 05:24:53 PM »
The discount rate depends upon the business you are talking about, whether it is levered & other company specific risk associated with cash flows (like key man risk).  Also if it is a private business there may be a discount for lack of marketability if you are purchasing a minority interest in the business.  You can PM with the details & I can provide you some further guidance if you do not want to disclose the details here.

Packer

Send you a PM.

tombgrt

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #576 on: April 16, 2018, 03:20:04 AM »
Hi Packer,

I was wondering if you already had a look at ABS-CBN. It's right up your ally: dominant television broadcaster in the Philippines.

Looks cheap and they are currently at multi-year lows with a 3% dividend yield. Majority owned and run by founding family with decent track record.

Country (and currency) risk might be a bit high though.

Packer16

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #577 on: April 16, 2018, 09:01:50 AM »
I have looked at it & I like the sector but I like GMA Networks better as they have better programming in terms or ratings that ABS-CBN & is cheaper.  They do not have the cable assets of ABS-CBN so one may expect them to be cheaper.

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tombgrt

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Re: Ask Packer - No Seriously, Ask Him Anything (AHA)!
« Reply #578 on: April 16, 2018, 09:38:48 AM »
Yes, I saw GMA Networks as well. Will look into them thanks!