Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 208716 times)



sculpin

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Heavy crude differential narrows as Alberta oil cuts take effect

https://boereport.com/2019/01/02/heavy-crude-differential-narrows-as-alberta-oil-cuts-take-effect/

$12.75/bbl WCS-WTI diffs

Cardboard

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sculpin

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231141-eia-914-u-s-oil-production-increase-october-less-expected

Summary

US oil production was less than expected vs. the weekly + adjustment figure of 11.778 mb/d.

US oil production in October reached an all-time high of 11.537 mb/d.

Texas is showing decelerating growth year-over-year and we expect it to be in the 15% to 20% range going forward.

The impact of even a stalled growth trajectory in US oil production is very meaningful for the global oil market balance in 2019. The delta could be as large as ~500k b/d.

Combine this with understanding the Saudi incentives and we see Brent reaching as high as $90/bbl in Q4 2019.
  :D

sculpin

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https://seekingalpha.com/article/4234312-oil-market-supply-deficit-return-q2-2019

Summary

IEA forecasts oil market deficit to return by Q2 2019.

This aligns with our model and if OPEC extends the production cut, then the H2 2019 balance will be -1 mb/d.

We think the odds of OPEC extending the production cut to the end of 2019 are high.

Our bullish surprise forecast is for Brazil to disappoint again in 2019. While our bearish surprise forecast is for US to grow total liquids by ~1.8 mb/d in 2019.

We remain very bullish oil and energy stocks. Our Brent forecast average this year is $75 to $78 this year with upside to $90. Much of the move to $90 will depend on the trajectory of the US Dollar as well as global economic data.