Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 85886 times)

rkbabang

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the stone age did not end for a lack of stones and the oil age will not end for a lack of oil

I think that just about says it all.  And I'm sure the solar power age will not end for lack of sun, the fusion age will not end for lack of fusible nucleuses, the antimatter age will not end for lack of matter and antimatter, etc...

The peak oil scaremongers are getting tedious.  Next up: How overpopulation is going to destroy us all!!!!!!!

Always find it incredulous that there are those who make such generalizing flippant statements with most likely little or complete lack of understanding of an industry. Especially one of such great importance as energy to modern civilization.


People that use this analogy are taking an example of something that had nothing to do with supply scarcity and using it to describe something that does (oil depletion) in a way to pretend that supply scarcity doesn't matter, or is something that will inevitably be dealt with easily. We'll get past real issues of scarcity by acknowledging that the issues are real, that they are serious, and that we have to plan accordingly for the future with those issues squarely in mind. We won't get to the future we desire by shrugging our shoulders, saying that "The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stones..." and claiming that things always work out in the end because it makes us feel good to pretend that they always have and always will. If you think Peak Oil has anything to do with "running out" then I'd suggest that you don't properly understand Peak Oil. Likewise, if you're using the Stone Age analogy, I'd suggest that you don't properly understand energy."


Oil is finite. Sure everything is finite.  But we will never hit peak oil.  We are going to be using other sources for the majority of our energy needs long before we hit peak oil.  We will still always need oil for plastics, lubricants, etc, and some power applications as well, but humanity will not be relying on it as much as it does now indefinitely.   Yes I understand peak oil. If we can no longer ever produce enough supply to meet demand and this is a permanent state, we will have reached peak oil.  In my opinion this will never happen.  Like any commodities market demand may exceed supply temporarily causing price increases, but peak oil scare stories are simply fear mongering.

EDIT:  Peak Oil could also mean the highest oil production ever reached by humanity, and just like we hit peak whale oil sometime in the late 1800's we will hit that peak oil sometime in the first half of the 21st century.  Oil production will slowly start to fall and it won't be for lack of supply.
 
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 05:31:00 AM by rkbabang »


Pelagic

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I think it's worth distinguishing between oil as we know it today and liquid hydrocarbons that can fill in for oil, gasoline, jet fuel, etc. Even if we eventually run out of economically extractable oil, synthetic hydrocarbon fuels are well within our capabilities. For instance during WW2 Germany fueled its air force almost entirely with synthetic fuels due to a shortage of available oil. Synthetic liquid hydrocarbons can come from a lot of different sources whether it's coal gasification or biomass, or as the US Navy has proposed just using seawater and air for the respective hydrogen and carbon feedstocks. None of these methods are cheap at today's prices but then again none has ever really been attempted at scale since we do have relatively easy access to crude oil.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/09/seawater-to-fuel-navy-vessels-_n_5113822.html

We shouldn't equate our dependence on crude oil with our dependence as a society on hydrocarbon fuels. Hydrocarbons have a lot of advantages as a fuel source for transport applications in terms of energy density, advantages that there just aren't easy alternatives for - especially when weight/volume are limiting factors like in aviation. While we will probably continue to see a shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles for private use, some applications like aviation and shipping will likely be reliant on liquid hydrocarbons of some form for quite some time to come.

Heck, SpaceX uses kerosene to launch its rockets.

petec

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Always find it incredulous that there are those who make such generalizing flippant statements with most likely little or complete lack of understanding of an industry.

The man who made that statement was the Saudi minister for oil for something like 20 years.   "Complete lack of understanding of an industry"?   He virtually was the industry.   And his point was: before we run out of oil we will move on to something else, just as stone gave way to metals for tools and just as wood gave way to coal which gave way to oil for energy.   Those resources were not infinite, and they have not been exhausted.   

I spent about 7 years studying peak oil in some detail and I understand the theory fairly well.   I am sure oil production will peak one day, but it is as likely to be due to lack of demand as lack of supply.   More importantly, it is worth thinking of what new supplies of lower cost production does to the supply curve.   Fracking is now lower cost than the oil sands and deepwater that represented the marginal capacity 5 years ago, and it is capable of growing fast and shoving those sources of supply off the end of the cost curve.   There is a lot more than just depletion going on.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2016, 09:09:53 AM by petec »

Cardboard

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Oil is available at a price and at today`s price it is too low for fracking and most new sources.

Some here don`t seem to realize that U.S. production was 9.6 million barrels/day in April 2015 and is now 8.5 million barrels/day with most of that decline in Lower 48 States and due to fracking or lack thereof. And there is no sign of slowdown in that decline which has continued despite a few dozen rigs having been added in the fields over the past 5 weeks.

So some here should stop posting the non sense from the NY Times and other outlets and spend more time getting an understanding for decline rates and costs at various operations by reading MD&A`s of various companies.

Cardboard

 

Cardboard

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http://www.marketwatch.com/topics/organizations/american-petroleum-institute

U.S. oil inventories down 12.1 million barrels according to API in the last week. An enormous draw for this time of the year with refineries starting their August to October maintenance and changeover to winter fuels. Also the largest that I recall for all of 2016.

Of course Hermine was a factor but, this is much larger than expected by analysts who should have taken Hermine into account in their forecast for a 425,000 barrels build.

The tankers story may start to make sense after all.

Cardboard

sculpin

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Always find it incredulous that there are those who make such generalizing flippant statements with most likely little or complete lack of understanding of an industry.

The man who made that statement was the Saudi minister for oil for something like 20 years.   "Complete lack of understanding of an industry"?   He virtually was the industry.   And his point was: before we run out of oil we will move on to something else, just as stone gave way to metals for tools and just as wood gave way to coal which gave way to oil for energy.   Those resources were not infinite, and they have not been exhausted.   

I spent about 7 years studying peak oil in some detail and I understand the theory fairly well.   I am sure oil production will peak one day, but it is as likely to be due to lack of demand as lack of supply.   More importantly, it is worth thinking of what new supplies of lower cost production does to the supply curve.   Fracking is now lower cost than the oil sands and deepwater that represented the marginal capacity 5 years ago, and it is capable of growing fast and shoving those sources of supply off the end of the cost curve.   There is a lot more than just depletion going on.

Trusting Saudi oil ministers for advice on oil is akin to asking for advice from the mortgage derivative experts at Goldman Sach, Merrill, Lehman, Bear etc in 2007

petec

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Always find it incredulous that there are those who make such generalizing flippant statements with most likely little or complete lack of understanding of an industry.

The man who made that statement was the Saudi minister for oil for something like 20 years.   "Complete lack of understanding of an industry"?   He virtually was the industry.   And his point was: before we run out of oil we will move on to something else, just as stone gave way to metals for tools and just as wood gave way to coal which gave way to oil for energy.   Those resources were not infinite, and they have not been exhausted.   

I spent about 7 years studying peak oil in some detail and I understand the theory fairly well.   I am sure oil production will peak one day, but it is as likely to be due to lack of demand as lack of supply.   More importantly, it is worth thinking of what new supplies of lower cost production does to the supply curve.   Fracking is now lower cost than the oil sands and deepwater that represented the marginal capacity 5 years ago, and it is capable of growing fast and shoving those sources of supply off the end of the cost curve.   There is a lot more than just depletion going on.

Trusting Saudi oil ministers for advice on oil is akin to asking for advice from the mortgage derivative experts at Goldman Sach, Merrill, Lehman, Bear etc in 2007

I won't dignify this with a response other than to say: time will tell!

petec

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Oil is available at a price and at today`s price it is too low for fracking and most new sources.

Some here don`t seem to realize that U.S. production was 9.6 million barrels/day in April 2015 and is now 8.5 million barrels/day with most of that decline in Lower 48 States and due to fracking or lack thereof. And there is no sign of slowdown in that decline which has continued despite a few dozen rigs having been added in the fields over the past 5 weeks.

So some here should stop posting the non sense from the NY Times and other outlets and spend more time getting an understanding for decline rates and costs at various operations by reading MD&A`s of various companies.

Cardboard

I'm not sure if this is aimed at me, but if it is then a) I realise production has fallen and b) I do read the MD&As.   I'm not arguing that the oil price won't rise.   I'm arguing that the 1-in-20 headline of the OP doesn't mean civilisation is clinging to the edge of a cliff.

All I would add to your post is that costs (which are highly positively correlated with the oil price, with a lag) are coming down apace.   My guess is that the marginal cost of a barrel will settle in the $40-60 range, and that has been my guess for about 6 years now.   We shall see...!

Uccmal

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Always find it incredulous that there are those who make such generalizing flippant statements with most likely little or complete lack of understanding of an industry.

The man who made that statement was the Saudi minister for oil for something like 20 years.   "Complete lack of understanding of an industry"?   He virtually was the industry.   And his point was: before we run out of oil we will move on to something else, just as stone gave way to metals for tools and just as wood gave way to coal which gave way to oil for energy.   Those resources were not infinite, and they have not been exhausted.   

I spent about 7 years studying peak oil in some detail and I understand the theory fairly well.   I am sure oil production will peak one day, but it is as likely to be due to lack of demand as lack of supply.   More importantly, it is worth thinking of what new supplies of lower cost production does to the supply curve.   Fracking is now lower cost than the oil sands and deepwater that represented the marginal capacity 5 years ago, and it is capable of growing fast and shoving those sources of supply off the end of the cost curve.   There is a lot more than just depletion going on.

Trusting Saudi oil ministers for advice on oil is akin to asking for advice from the mortgage derivative experts at Goldman Sach, Merrill, Lehman, Bear etc in 2007

I won't dignify this with a response other than to say: time will tell!

+1 : I wouldn't either. 
GARP tending toward value

Joe689

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EIA confirms API.

So is the decrease of imports due to the storm or is the funny business over.   I would think that all major trader's analysts monitor the storms, and ports and they should have seen this coming (if it was the storm).     Looks to be more than just a storm here.