Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 236239 times)

SharperDingaan

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Very clever move by the Iranians
"Iran will offer oil futures to interested foreign parties at pre-determined rates. According to OPEC’s most recent Monthly Oil Market Report, however, Iran’s average crude oil production in May was 2.37 million bpd according to secondary sources."
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iran-To-Offer-Oil-Future-Contracts-To-Foreign-Firms-Despite-Sanctions.html

Buy physical Iranian crude at a discount; today, AND UP TO 3 YEARS FROM TODAY.
Ship-to-ship transfer of Iranian for Iraqi crude at sea. The Iranian loader continuing to the monitored port, the Iraqi loader to a mystery port. The Iranian loader gets seized .. but unfortunately the lab confirms it's not Iranian crude. Reminds one of the 'good ol' days' of Ari Onassis!
https://gcaptain.com/seized-supertanker-grace-1-at-full-capacity-with-crude-gibraltar-says/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aristotle_Onassis

And even if you were caught ... were you carrying Iranian crude (under sanction), or Iranian condensate (not sanctioned)?
Iranian oil smugglers are very good at what they do, and have been doing it for a very long time. Whereas the Americans ... not so much. "At various points, Darroch called Trump “clumsy and inept,” described him as “radiating insecurity,” and referred to the administration’s Iran policy as “incoherent” and “chaotic”
https://theiranproject.com/blog/2019/06/27/expansion-of-irans-persian-gulf-star-refinery-on-track/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/04/16/the-oil-smugglers-of-tehran/
https://www.vox.com/2019/7/10/20688703/kim-darroch-uk-ambassador-resigns-trump-boris-johnson

American weaponry is not useful unless it is used, and Iranian smuggling is 'winning'. Iran exports are not at zero (or even close to).
To stop the smuggling, the Americans have little choice but to knock out the loading facilities; easy enough to do, but there will be retailiation. And very likely ... an extended conflict.

Hard to see how WTI doesn't go to USD 70+ once the conflict starts.
And harder to see how it can be avoided.

SD




SharperDingaan

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Shitty way to make a buck, but it would appear that WTI is highly likely to continue rising > USD 60 for quite some time. It would seem that Trump can’t back-off, the US Congress can’t stop him from pulling the US into a war (repeated attempts), and the clock is rapidly ticking down. There is no “day after” plan, as the plan is removal of the mullahs – with air/naval strikes only, and no body bags.  Alternatively, removal of Trump himself, by impeachment.

Numerous European leaders this weekend, expressing concern that armed conflict is very close. Kuwait announcement they are militarily moving to protect key OPEC exporter ports. Rouhani clearly outclassing the US in just about everything it does. And all this concurrent with big weekly draws on crude inventories.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-iran-kuwait/kuwait-moves-to-protect-its-ports-amid-gulf-tensions-idUSKCN1U80NK
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa/rouhani-says-iran-ready-to-talks-to-u-s-if-sanctions-lifted-tv-idUSKCN1U90DQ

We live in interesting times
SD


“the former United Kingdom ambassador to the United States, said the Trump administration was "set upon an act of diplomatic vandalism" in its decision to abandon the Iran nuclear deal. Trump seemed to be discarding the Iran nuclear deal for "personality reasons," as the deal had been agreed to by former President Barack Obama. Hints that the White House has no "day-after" plan on how to handle the aftermath of withdrawing from the deal.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/13/politics/daily-mail-trump-iran-nuclear-deal-leaked-cables/index.html

Lawmakers adopted the amendment in a 251-170 vote with more than two dozen Republicans in support. The House and the Senate will still have to reconcile their separate versions of the defense bill, and are likely to exclude the Iran amendment from the final package. Last month, a similar measure that would have restricted the president's ability to unilaterally launch military action on Iran failed in the Senate. The legislation received 50 votes in favor and 40 against, falling short of the 60-vote hurdle to advance to a final vote.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-votes-require-congressional-approval-military-strike-against-iran-n1029311