Author Topic: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.  (Read 248677 times)

Cardboard

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Joe689

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Re: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.
« Reply #1101 on: September 15, 2019, 05:14:47 AM »
This could be the big one, the ME meltdown, the 100 oil situation.     Would fit a bad situation with lowering rates and no inflation.  Oil spikes coincide with recessions.  Feds are running out of tools.  Iran may be taking the rest of the world with it

SharperDingaan

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Re: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.
« Reply #1102 on: September 15, 2019, 07:10:15 AM »
The ME is where an ‘eye-for-an-eye’ was invented, and goes back to Hammurabi’s Code and the Babylonian Empire;
start a conflict, and there will be no winners. Take out my oil facilities, and I will take yours.; WTI spikes, inflated US and EIA inventory reserves on stand-by to mitigate?

Notable is that Iran needs (short-term) higher crude prices (to discount from), and the US/SA/etc. needs lower ones (long-term) to prevent demand collapse and a resurgence of US shale production. WTI at maybe USD 55-60 for the US, USD 65-75 for the Iranians?

Iraq used to have Hussein, Iran used to have Khomeini? SA used to have King Abdullah/MBS?
 

Sadly, selected quotes from a previous post .. that would seem somewhat precscient today.
The reality is that oil facilities cannot be protected against against attack, no matter how mighty your weaponry. The real protection was an 'eye for an eye', now being tested. SA needs the Aramco IPO to go through, and the new oil minister (MBS) needs to demonstrate strength. Not a healthy combination. 

SA will allready be sucking hard on global inventory, and WTI prices will reflect it. Most would expect additional sucks as retallitory strikes take place, and daily draws continue for longer than anticipated. The US/SA will have itchy fingers; and it is not hard to launch additional strikes on previously damaged facilities, and/or sever pipelines to prevent egress from Red Sea loading facilities.

The long-term 'plan' may be 'regime change' in Iran. But today; most would argue that it's really 'regime change' in BOTH Iran and SA.
They are each others Yin/Yang, take one and the other collapses as well.

Interesting times.

SD

« Last Edit: September 15, 2019, 11:12:48 AM by SharperDingaan »

Joe689

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Re: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.
« Reply #1103 on: September 15, 2019, 10:22:08 AM »
Iran might be playing "if we go down, everyone goes down" in relation to the economies.  Iran may calculate that a spiking oil price could easily lead to world recession.  Historic low rates and spiking consumer gas prices is a dangerous combination.  Iran may play that card. 

Spekulatius

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Re: Future strategy to survive discovering 1 out of every 20 bbls of oil we now use.
« Reply #1104 on: September 15, 2019, 05:30:20 PM »
I think the spike in crude will be relatively contained and short lived.Aramco is probably going to restore the caduceus capacity in a few weeks and the release from the strategic reserve will compensate for any short term restrictions. If we indeed go into a recession, crude prices will go down anyways.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.