Author Topic: New Pershing Square Fund  (Read 4604 times)

gg

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New Pershing Square Fund
« on: July 09, 2013, 06:22:41 AM »
Bill Ackman's Pershing Square is looking to raise $1 Billion from investors for a new single-stock fund (http://news.yahoo.com/pershing-square-looks-raise-1-billion-bet-unnamed-215615426.html).

Any guesses on which company he will be pursuing?

I am sure that there are some people on this board who think Ackman is the next Warren Buffet, many who think he's an arrogant idiot not suited to manage other peoples' money, and many that fall somewhere in between. This thread is not meant to become a sounding board for people's feeling on Ackman, simply to try to guess the stock he will be buying for this new single-stock fund.

Presumably, once the name is announced, or once Pershing files the 13-d, the stock will pop...


bmichaud

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2013, 06:53:42 AM »
Wouldn't be surprised if it was Mondelez (MDLZ). Pershing has a small stake I believe, and Trian is trying to shake things up....

wellmont

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2013, 06:55:55 AM »
walgreen. just a guess.

jay21

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2013, 07:00:14 AM »
Wouldn't be surprised if it was Mondelez (MDLZ). Pershing has a small stake I believe, and Trian is trying to shake things up....

There's a few hints that we have:

"substantially lower multiple of earnings than its most comparable competitor,"
Ackman said the target company's name will come out because the New York-based hedge fund will be forced to make a regulatory filing when it acquires 5 percent of the company.

So I don't think MDLZ's 18ish PE and 50 billion market cap fit the bill. 
@jay_21_

bmichaud

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2013, 07:16:54 AM »
Wouldn't be surprised if it was Mondelez (MDLZ). Pershing has a small stake I believe, and Trian is trying to shake things up....

There's a few hints that we have:

"substantially lower multiple of earnings than its most comparable competitor,"
Ackman said the target company's name will come out because the New York-based hedge fund will be forced to make a regulatory filing when it acquires 5 percent of the company.

So I don't think MDLZ's 18ish PE and 50 billion market cap fit the bill.

Point taken. But also depends on how Ackman is looking at it. For instance, MDLZ trades at 13.1X trailing EBITDA (on a TEV basis) versus 14.9X for Hershey. Was MDLZ able to boost its EBITDA margins from 14.6% to Hershey's 21.3%, its EBITDA multiple falls to just 9X.

On an earnings basis, Hershey currently trades at 24X forward NTM EPS v. 18.5X for MDLZ - again, assuming margin expansion the discount to Hershey widens.

A_Hamilton

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2013, 07:41:15 AM »
Wouldn't be surprised if it was Mondelez (MDLZ). Pershing has a small stake I believe, and Trian is trying to shake things up....

There's a few hints that we have:

"substantially lower multiple of earnings than its most comparable competitor,"
Ackman said the target company's name will come out because the New York-based hedge fund will be forced to make a regulatory filing when it acquires 5 percent of the company.

So I don't think MDLZ's 18ish PE and 50 billion market cap fit the bill.

Point taken. But also depends on how Ackman is looking at it. For instance, MDLZ trades at 13.1X trailing EBITDA (on a TEV basis) versus 14.9X for Hershey. Was MDLZ able to boost its EBITDA margins from 14.6% to Hershey's 21.3%, its EBITDA multiple falls to just 9X.

On an earnings basis, Hershey currently trades at 24X forward NTM EPS v. 18.5X for MDLZ - again, assuming margin expansion the discount to Hershey widens.

It could fit the bill as I believe these single stock funds have purchased options in the target company in the past which can force you to file a 13D with a much smaller capital base than 5% ownership of the underlying would require.


fareastwarriors

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2013, 10:57:32 AM »
Some think it is FDX:
http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/FDX;UPSid1855520/FDX;UPS-FedEx-strength-attributed-to-activist-speculation



FedEx Rises on Speculation Bill Ackman May Acquire Stake

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/fedex-rises-on-speculation-bill-ackman-may-acquire-stake.html

The stock increased 6.2 percent to $105 at 11:21 a.m. in New York trading, after jumping 7.3 percent for the largest intraday increase since December 2011.


fareastwarriors

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #8 on: July 09, 2013, 01:52:51 PM »
now it's ADT...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-09/adt-rises-most-in-8-months-on-speculation-ackman-may-take-stake.html

ADT Rises Most in 8 Months on Speculation Over Ackman Stake


fenris

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Re: New Pershing Square Fund
« Reply #9 on: July 09, 2013, 02:49:21 PM »
I think  $1b side pocket fund + up to $2b from core Pershing Square suggests that $9b ADT  is an unlikely target. Numerous other reasons but I would say that size/liquidity alone already is a mismatch.