Author Topic: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies  (Read 2838 times)

Haasje

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Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« on: January 31, 2018, 06:11:51 AM »
Shipping is a really interesting industry and there are quite a few bargains (container, liquids, bulk all of it) to be found here. I've helped a developer who wanted to undertake a challenging project to develop a database that should make it very easy to pull up critical information for shipping investors. Not so much financial filing information (as there are many sites that do a great job) but fleet specific information.

We have a very, very early iteration live right now. It includes:

-fleet value screener (screens 8 shipping companies fleet)
-the screener then displays a fleet value based on customizable inputs on age and type of vessel. (not every vessel type is represented yet)
-we've set values by default but all values should ultimately be customizable. This alllows you to set your valuation estimates for certain ship types by age and the screener will spit out the aggregated fleet values based on your inputs. When ultimately all 80+ shipping companies are included this allows a shipping investor to find the best prospects much more quickly and more accurately.

It already took a lot of time and effort, especially by the developer Coen, but it needs a lot more time, money and effort to build out.

I know you are all busy but please give it a test spin - it only takes a few minutes - and tell us whether you would pay $5-$10 per month for this sort of tool.

We would love to hear what type of features you would really love in a specialized but affordable shipping screener!

Test the fleet screener:
https://vlccanalyzer.com/fleet-screener/

 2 question poll:
https://vlccanalyzer.com/2018/01/24/answer-2-simple-questions-to-help-us-improve-vlcc-analyzer/







BG2008

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2018, 08:23:18 AM »
Looking for an honest woman in a house of ill repute?  (please don't be offend, I can't help. Shipping is too tough of an industry for me)

Haasje

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #2 on: January 31, 2018, 05:04:55 PM »
No offense taken. I get it: cyclical, lots of debt and offshore companies. On the bright side you know what you are getting into and if the price paid is right and you aren't too unlucky things can turn out very well. Definitely not for everyone.

Lakesider

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #3 on: January 31, 2018, 05:30:35 PM »
An interesting idea!

I invested in GNRT a few months back on the basis the net sale value was at a considerable discount to the market cap. I found that by looking at the price/book of the companies and then doing the research from ship broker reports. If I could trust your screener and maybe if it had more features I would consider using it. (although I doubt I would pay a monthly subscription as in this market it seems like a waiting game more than anything)

Where are the ship values pulled from?

Would you be able to have company financial information too? Such as market cap, or fleet value net of debt?

I feel that there may be easier ways of screening companies to identify those that will require more research if the figures are not reliable.


Haasje

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2018, 02:47:55 AM »
"I found that by looking at the price/book of the companies and then doing the research from ship broker reports."

I've input values from shipbrokers reports manually to be able to offer a default value. Basically what this could do is do the work you did for one company for the roughly 100 publicly traded shipping companies at once.

"Would you be able to have company financial information too? Such as market cap, or fleet value net of debt? "

we could offer more financial information for sure. Market cap is definitely possible. "Fleet value net of debt" is essentially the difference between what we have as "enterprise value" and fleet value.

"I feel that there may be easier ways of screening companies to identify those that will require more research if the figures are not reliable."

There are many ways we can improve the reliability of the figures. In my view they give a rough idea right now but there are really a lot of ways to improve. I'm curious what you think would be a easier way? Because this is intended to be a 10x improvement to the methods I use now :)


Packer16

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2018, 05:23:46 AM »
Have you guys though of including a lease value calculator where you can calculate the value of the remaining leases.  This IMO is the liquidation value of these firms as a good number of the shipping segments are commodities so the liquidation value is the greater of the remaining leases or sale or scrap.  A credit tool would also be useful as most shipping companies are too levered and the place to invest is in the debt or with the leasors versus the shipping company itself.

Packer

Haasje

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2018, 08:54:36 AM »
Thanks for the idea. We didn't think of it but you are the second who suggests a stat on lease value. I was thinking of a dcf on the lease + scrap value as an interesting value and that's what you are suggesting right?

I'm not familiar at all with publicly traded shipping debt. It's marketed around here to a rather naive audience so I always figured its not interesting. What stats would a credit tool need to collect/display to be most useful?

LC

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2018, 03:19:47 PM »
A credit tool would also be useful as most shipping companies are too levered and the place to invest is in the debt or with the leasors versus the shipping company itself.

Have you read Shipping Man? Sensationalized, but it describes how all the players (lenders, owners, operators, etc.) are aware of hedge funds trying to buy shipping debt cheap in the short-term for upside in the long-term asset value . There are a few good passages in that book relating to this.
"Lethargy bordering on sloth remains the cornerstone of our investment style."
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brk.b | cash

Haasje

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2018, 07:57:01 AM »
Thnx LC, I actually did read it but it has been a while and I've never invested in shipping credit yet.

constructive

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Re: Tool to find undervalued shipping companies
« Reply #9 on: February 06, 2018, 03:09:17 PM »
As an alternate way to monetize this data, it might be a good idea to turn it into a Bloomberg app. You could talk to Oddballstocks who developed completebankdata.com.