It has already been mentioned above, but it is not correct to compare bottom to top since down years are also part of the market. Such a top to top comparison would yield different results. I would choose 2007 to 2017 as a much more accurate comparison. This would lead to a BRK CAGR of 9.46 vs 8.1% for Vanguard500. In fact, this BRK return is more or less in line with what most of us (and WEB) expect of Berkshire: a little under 10% IV CAGR for BRK unless interest rates go up
Edit: I used IV and it might not be correct because of discount rates. However, this a "a little under 10% return" stems from the fact that WEB himself seems to be using a 10% hurdle for his investments. In the old days he would ask for a first day 15%, he now seems to ask for 10%. Cash and bond drag together with some comission mistakes explain the underperformance to his hurdle rate. This is why 9-10% tends to be the discount rate applied to berkshire (IMO this discount rate is inappropriate and the motive for the permanent discount in the stock price: if you get almost bond like safety you must have an almost bond like discount rate. The same happens with the sp500 in the long run.
On the first point, there are many stats you could consider that would support either way of looking at it. E.g. For 10 years after the 1973-74 bottom, BRK's performance over the index was higher than it had been before because they'd been able to put money to work before and around this period... so when people say WEB's going to bag elephants in the next recession, I'm looking at 2008-2018 period for evidence of that as that presented a pretty big opportunity. But we can simply leave both approaches (yours and mine) aside and consider these 9 year increments and BRK's out-performance over the SP500 since inception:
1965-1973 17.6%
1974-1982 19.8%
1983-1991 14.3%
1992-2000 9.6%
2001-2009 3.8%
2010-2018 1.6%
Here you've got tops, bottoms, and middles, everything and you can see where things are headed. Size is of course the big problem, but also cash-drag (which is related to size but has a solution in repurchases and/or dividends), and some mistakes of commission. Of course, we don't make money from the past performance of the stock, so when we look to the future period, what factors need to get better? And how much out-performance can we expect realistically in the NEXT 9 year period? I'm more and more becoming convinced that while outperformance may exist, it probably will continue this trend we're seeing here. Now, whether 1% outperformance is worth the risk of not achieving that outperformance is up to debate. 1% can do a lot over decades, but remember 1% will go to 0.5% etc. unless they shrink the capital base (which was the subject of my prior post where I gave reasons for my thinking why it won't happen on any decent timeline).
They have not been short of capital in the 2010-2018 period. So, repurchases would've made these results better. That was probably also true in the period before that, 2001-2009. Only ways to shrink the capital base are sizeable repurchases, dividends (when appropriate), and occasional acquisitions when they can be found. I do feel that the time has come to make acquisitions the "special case" rather than the default case and move repurchases up to default case when the stock is not overvalued:
As to bond-like safety, I'm not sure why you'd assume that. What exactly is providing bond-like safety here? It's not a bond. It might be safe in our minds but that doesn't make it a bond. (Every borrower thinks they're going to pay their mortgages/debt, but that doesn't make them all AAA/FICO 800+ either. Same logic) Also, bonds pay coupons, Berkshire doesn't; and that is what is being discounted in the bond price. So you're relying on reinvestment and the results of that re-investment skill is what you're seeing in the table above. If BRK had traded at bond yield type discount rates in 2010, you can imagine what the outperformance profile would look like. BTW, "stocks discount rates should equal bond yields" was also the reasoning given for buying SP500 in 1999 in the book Dow 36,000. It seems logical on the surface, but it's not right just from a plain mathematical standpoint.
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Thank you for the answer.
1) BRK outperformance vs SP500: it is quite obvious that the outperformance by definition cannot last forever. My point was that expected return is capped (on the downside and on the upside) at about 10%/year, and this is because Buffett himself seems to have chosen that hurdle. In fact, it seems that if he cannot get his 10% he would rather not invest and keep cash on hand.
2) outperformance perspectives: it really depends on the return you expect from the sp500. If you expect 9-10% a year, berkshire makes no sense at current prices. if you expect 5-6% bekshire is a much better option. I would point, however, that Buffet himself stated in this year's letter that there are much better opportunities out there instead of berkshire
3) acquisitions vs repurchases: agreed, it sometimes feels like empire building. I would add that in hindsight I cannot understand why berkshire kept such a cashdrag in the last 10 years. It would have been better for them to just buy the SP500 and use the float leverage to make it worth it
4) BRk safety: stems from over 100B cash on hand and discipline to only invest it when expecting an over 10% yield and a diversified high quality asset base.
5) bond-like safety: here I disagree. I don't see safety on the coupon, I see safety as: probability of not losing money. Lets look at bonds:
Portugal 30 year: 2.46%; greece 25 year: 4.7%; italy 30 year: 3.6%
yes, you are supposed to receive money every year, but what is safer? a diversified bond portfolio like this or just investing in berkshire? (I used country debts because it was an easier comparison, but the same could be done with other risky bonds).
On the other hand, on berkshire you get 9-10% counpounded (and only pay taxes on the sale, so the post tax result is even better). On the SP500 I don't have an estimate.
Is this a correct discount rate? if you believe the risk is lower on BRK/SP500 you should use a lower discount rate.
If you use 30 year AAA bonds it seems to stand at 3.8%. Here the risk is certainly higher for BRK/SP500. But does it explain an over 5%/year difference?
so
"stocks discount rates should equal bond yields": no
"stock discount rates should equal similar safety bond yields": yes