Author Topic: Berkshire return over the next 10 years  (Read 6016 times)

scorpioncapital

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2009, 06:32:05 PM »
I believe if WFC becomes a zero, considering dividends received by Berkshire over the years of ownership, the impact per 'B' share is less than $100. Now that to me sounds like a solidly built company.


sfwusc

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2009, 07:28:44 PM »
What if WFC become a zero due to nationalization?   What does that do for IV?

Now you are getting at the problem with IV.  You don't know the future. 

What if IV is really below far below the current share price?  You don't know that evil scientists haven't created a superbug that will wipe out 80% of the people on the planet.

Reasonable scenarios are all you have to work with.

I found this article interesting, with regards to WFC:

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=280935



I agree, but the chance of WFC being a zero is real.  Not saying it will be, but the chance is there.   So just assuming it is going to be a homerun is not smart. It might be, but the future isn't known on that either.

I think the hit to Berkshire for WFC has already been about $100 a share since 9/30/08...there isn't that much left damage left to do at $10 a share.  I think the total position isn't worth, but about $65 a share now.     All this assuming we still own 290,000,000 shares.

-SFWUSC

el_chieh

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2009, 09:34:02 PM »
At this point, using Buffett's 2-column methodology, BRK is trading as it's whole equity portfolio is zero (assuming 12x p/e q3'08 depressed annualized operating earnings).


benhacker

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #13 on: February 22, 2009, 09:15:50 AM »
FYI, that Morningstar "analysis" was ripped off.  They stole someone's rough spreadsheet analysis from another board.

I have no affiliation with M* or the poster who was ripped off, but I thought the fact that an M* analyst would blatanty steal from a source on the Internet without citation or a simple request was deplorable... so I'm spreading the word.

He also stole some data typos with it, so it's 100% clear it's a rip off (to me).

Just an FYI... in general, I don't disagree with the conclusion... just the method... the guy should be fired tomorrow.

Ben
Ben Hacker
Beaverton, Oregon - USA

wabuffo

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #14 on: February 22, 2009, 10:37:38 AM »
I would echo Ben's assertion that the Morningstar "burn-down" analysis was plagarized from another public board.  Its shameful that the Morningstar "analyst" didn't acknowledge his source.  Very un-cool.

wabuffo

ExpectedValue

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2009, 10:45:45 AM »
can anyone post a link to the original WFC analysis?

Eric50

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #16 on: February 22, 2009, 12:03:31 PM »
Here is another point of view of WFC. Quite bullish this time.

<http://www.bankstocks.com/ArticleViewer.aspx?ArticleID=5683&ArticleTypeID=2>


Partner24

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Re: Berkshire return over the next 10 years
« Reply #17 on: February 23, 2009, 06:21:15 AM »
After over 60 votes, the mean vote goes to 14% CAGR return over the next 10 years.

Cheers!