Author Topic: Tilson's latest intrinsic value on BRK as at 27 Feb 2018  (Read 4108 times)

Dynamic

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Re: Tilson's latest intrinsic value on BRK as at 27 Feb 2018
« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2018, 09:58:59 AM »
He recently emailed me the corrected version and it's now live on his website at:
http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf

Your old version may be cached, so you might need to Refresh or Reload in your web browser to get the updated one.


BG2008

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Re: Tilson's latest intrinsic value on BRK as at 27 Feb 2018
« Reply #11 on: March 02, 2018, 10:36:41 AM »
Is the intrinsic value increase of 6% appropriate?  It seems like it should be higher from my experience (assuming no market collapse which will drag the equity portfolio down significantly). 

marazul

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Re: Tilson's latest intrinsic value on BRK as at 27 Feb 2018
« Reply #12 on: March 02, 2018, 11:02:08 AM »
Buffett said that even in a "so-so" economy he expects IV to grow at +8%...that is probably conservative...he has also said that in the last 10 years IV grew by 10% per year and he thinks he can do that in the next 10 years if rates rise a bit...Buffett has always been conservative so maybe 9-11% IV growth for the next decade is a good target

cubsfan

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Re: Tilson's latest intrinsic value on BRK as at 27 Feb 2018
« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2018, 11:03:46 AM »
He recently emailed me the corrected version and it's now live on his website at:
http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf

Your old version may be cached, so you might need to Refresh or Reload in your web browser to get the updated one.

Dynamic - thanks for doing this.

StevieV

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Re: Tilson's latest intrinsic value on BRK as at 27 Feb 2018
« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2018, 11:11:34 AM »
Is the intrinsic value increase of 6% appropriate?  It seems like it should be higher from my experience (assuming no market collapse which will drag the equity portfolio down significantly).

I mentioned upthread that I believe Tilson was stating 6% IV growth without counting the cash build, which he put at 10,000/A share.  He also later used a 6-8% IV number.  So, that implies a higher IV number.  I am not sure I am correct here, but I believe that is how Tilson is putting things.  I think it is a little confusing, as the IV growth should include the value of any cash build.

I think 8-10% IV growth/year over the next 10 years is a good estimate.  If you buy at a good price, I think that you can boost the 10-yr CAGR you'll get as an investor a percentage point or so.