Author Topic: Buffett's legacy  (Read 3389 times)

Ballinvarosig Investors

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Re: Buffett's legacy
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2020, 03:13:28 AM »
Itís becoming clearer that the buyback program is in place for the next guy.
Agree. If Buffett was to leave, or die tomorrow, then I think the stock is likely to go on a tear from where it is.

  • The stock is clearly cheap on a historical basis, just to revert to mean there is upside there alone.
  • Whoever comes in after Buffett is likely to step on the gas with regards to buybacks, which Buffett has always seemed to be cagey about.
  • One of the big factors few people talk about is Buffett's 31% stake unwinding. Once that unwinds, there is going to be an automatic bid from index funds which are float adjusted which will be required to buy more Berkshire as Buffett's estate sells

Buffett's stake is going to take a LONG time to unwind, but once it starts happening, I expect Berkshire to go on a generational charge, a bit like Microsoft did when Bill Gates took his stake from 24% to 1% today. Berkshire is obviously not as good a business as Microsoft, but it's still quite strong. I could easily see Berkshire providing a 15% annualised return over the 10 years from after Buffett dies.


cherzeca

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Re: Buffett's legacy
« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2020, 02:49:04 PM »
WEB's genius is to use simple examples to make important points.  my favorite is the 20 hole punchcard.  it is one thing to say have a strong filter to sort out opportunities, and another to say, here, take this punchcard and this is all of the investments you can make in your lifetime. a photographer once told me to try the exercise of taking only one shot a day.  in a digital world, this is crazy...crazy smart, as is WEB