John Hjorth, why is Ajit Jain not physically well?
Anyway, I don't think Gates will be CEO. He left MSFT so he can spend full time at the foundation so it wouldn't make much sense.
I also don't think it's Jain or Abel. Just because they're on the board doesn't mean they will be CEO.
As longinvestor stated, I too think it will be someone who won't have to deal with anything operational. Think about it, Buffett spends 0 time on operations and he's the greatest capital allocator ever. Why give someone the CEO job now who will have to spend x % of their time on operations and thus less than 100% on capital allocation?
Both Jain and Abel are experts in their respective industries, so why pull them away to run the rest of Berkshire. Better to give the gig to someone who does capital allocation for a living, someone like Ted and Todd.
-It's their full time job right now anyway.
-They have been involved in various acquisition roles (PCP for Todd, Detlev for Ted).
-They're young as opposed to Jain who is nearing 70
It preserves the current set up - the chief capital allocator on one side and the operations on the other side. It doesn't mix up the two. The capital allocator can spend all of his time reading. No need for dividing time or for a management shake up at BH Energy which is poised to spend like $100 billion on capex in the coming decade - better to have Greg Abel focus on that. Of course better to keep Ajit focused on his insurance expertise.
I also think it's easier to have the chief capital allocator be the chief investment officer so they can run all big investment opportunities through a single lens instead of having 2 parties compete for capital. Keeps things much smoother and is how Buffett operated all these years.
Abel and Jain are the 2 most powerful people at Berkshire next to Buffett, so it makes sense they get their place on the board to keep the new CEO(s) in check.
I've said this before. Am willing to bet a small $ amount with anyone that it will be Todd, Ted or a combination of the two.
