Author Topic: Buffett/Berkshire - general news  (Read 710887 times)

John Hjorth

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3259
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1750 on: August 06, 2020, 12:01:20 PM »
In a way - in some dimensions - she was the diametrical opposite of her younger brother, but still a basically good person.

"Retail philanthropist" here comes to mind. Imagine going through many letters every day from people in need, to reach an individual decision.

RIP.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai


gfp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2071
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1751 on: August 06, 2020, 12:13:56 PM »

thepupil

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1908
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1752 on: August 06, 2020, 01:04:14 PM »
obviously won't happen, but I think it would be legendary for Berkshire to just unload all it's AAPL stake and be like

"yea we're still bearish, 260 yards of cash seems right, haterz gonna hate"

at 15% of volume assuming no block trades, it would only take 40-50 trading days.

Jurgis

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5608
    • Porfolio
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1753 on: August 06, 2020, 01:32:23 PM »
Maybe I should have posted it in the BOMN thread?

https://www.sunshinelady.org/sunshine-ladys-charitable-work-for-warren-buffett-clouded-over/

Interesting article.

It seems that genetically Warren is not in a good shoes. Dementia, cancer and cardiac problems. OTOH Doris lived to 92 and Warren seems to be mostly fine still.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Xerxes

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 353
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1754 on: August 07, 2020, 06:41:04 AM »

gfp

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2071
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1755 on: August 07, 2020, 06:45:14 AM »
We sort of already know it is less than that through quarter end since the filing that telegraphed the ~$5.3-5.4 Billion in buybacks was in July.  But maybe analysts are looking for a to-date and not quarter-end figure.

John Hjorth

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3259
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1756 on: August 07, 2020, 07:08:56 AM »
We'll know for sure tomorrow [at some time, depending where you are], right?
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 13058
  • libertyrpf.com
    • http://www.libertyrpf.com

Cigarbutt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2603
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1758 on: August 21, 2020, 10:13:46 AM »
https://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2020/08/is-buffett-really-bearish.html
Interesting, as always.
From the link:
"It is amazing to think it was above 100% before the Gen Re merger. BRK back then was a leveraged play on Buffett's stock-picking skills, and any investment in bonds offered free incremental points on ROE above all that. No wonder why returns were so high back then."
"So, this piece of evidence doesn't really show any bearishness on Buffett's part, or at least compared to the last 20+ years."
i submit that two considerations should be kept in mind:
The previous era referred to was before the 1996 irrational exuberance speech.
The next twenty years may be very different from the last ones.
i don't see why BRK would not become a leveraged play again, given the right circumstances.

wabuffo

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 568
    • Twitter
Re: Buffett/Berkshire - general news
« Reply #1759 on: August 22, 2020, 07:39:40 AM »
i don't see why BRK would not become a leveraged play again, given the right circumstances.

Is it possible we have gotten the idea of insurance float all wrong?  Despite Buffett's denial, brooklyninvestor highlights powerful evidence that BRK typically holds cash and fixed income amounts roughly equal to total insurance float, year-in and year-out.

In my BRK valuation models (variation of 2-column method), I've always deducted 20% of total float as non-working capital from total after-tax value of investments per share) to get my fair value estimate.   But what if it is really 100%?   Then my fair values have been overstated (and so have everyone else's).   When I try this adjustment (20% to 100%), my fair value estimates go from BRK being perpetually undervalued to BRK being mostly fair-valued with just a few periods of slight undervaluation (eg. 2015-16).

This approach would be consistent with Buffett's methodology going all way back to Blue Chip Stamps.  I always assumed that Buffett redeployed BCS's cash and fixed income investments into an investment in See's Candy - but that's not what actually happened when I got my hands on the annual reports.  Instead, Buffett used the unredeemed stamp liability as pseudo-equity and levered up the balance sheet to buy Sees.  He didn't really touch BCS's investment portfolio - other than tinkering with some of the fixed income investments for a bit of higher yield.   It was only many years down the road, when it was clear the redemption liability was wildly overstated (and in fact the IRS began prodding BRK to take profits (and pay income taxes) on the "breakage" that Buffett really began to redeploy/shrink the investment portfolio.

It is a bit of an a-ha! moment for me given the blog's reminder and my recent acquisition of the old BCS financials.   I'm gonna have to go back and re-tool my BRK valuation models.

wabuffo