Author Topic: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices  (Read 45463 times)

gfp

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #100 on: October 15, 2019, 06:46:33 AM »
Looks like Berkshire went over 10% on Wells as of this morning's updated WFC share count.  I'm seeing period end (9/30/19) Wells share count at 4.2691 Billion shares and Berkshire with 432.383 million shares.  So a few days after Wells files their 10Q we will see if Berkshire was granted or is in the process of being granted permission to let the stake drift above 10% due to repurchase activity.  Seemed to be allowed for BAC so I would expect the same for Wells.


Dynamic

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #101 on: October 15, 2019, 08:41:57 AM »
Thanks for posting this, gfp. I hadn't got round to checking.
The filing deadline for Form 3 or similar would be 3 days, wouldn't it?
If so we should know around Friday evening after the closing bell, I imagine, and we'll find out if they happened to add to their WFC position this quarter (which is unlikely but possible). I suspect various news outlets will report it incorrectly as an add, because they never include the 22,580,200 shares held for Berkshire via New England Asset Management's 13F-HR.

Assuming it has to remain passive once it exceeds 10% through buybacks, we can probably assume that they won't add to the position once they know it has exceeded 10% (as they did with Delta Air Lines DAL during the three days before filing, causing 2 filings within days).

gfp

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #102 on: October 15, 2019, 02:58:38 PM »
sorry to post this in your thread, but it relates to what we were just talking about -
https://www.americanbanker.com/articles/warren-buffett-seeks-fed-leeway-to-boost-stake-in-bank-of-america-past-10

Also - an update for your BAC position size now that Applied Underwriters is sold
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/70858/000120919119053219/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 07:40:04 PM by gfp »

Dynamic

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #103 on: October 16, 2019, 07:48:54 AM »
It's everyone's thread, gfp, and probably the best place to put news like this - I just happen to own and edit the spreadsheet.

You've made enormously valuable input to it and to my understanding of the filing rules and things like New England Asset Management's 13F, and encouraged me to look deeper into these arcane rules.

I've now modified the BAC look-through holding based on this Form 4 by way of the adjustment column (as the change won't be shown on a form 13F-HR until 14 Feb 2020, reflecting the portfolio at 31 Dec 2019).

Now the new BAC share count of 9,079.3 million shares at Sep 30th is known, Berkshire, with 947,760,000 shares, owns a fraction under 10.44% of BAC.

Dynamic

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #104 on: October 23, 2019, 03:26:11 AM »
Looks like Berkshire went over 10% on Wells as of this morning's updated WFC share count.  I'm seeing period end (9/30/19) Wells share count at 4.2691 Billion shares and Berkshire with 432.383 million shares.  So a few days after Wells files their 10Q we will see if Berkshire was granted or is in the process of being granted permission to let the stake drift above 10% due to repurchase activity.  Seemed to be allowed for BAC so I would expect the same for Wells.

It seems that I was wrong about the filing deadlines, which appear to be 10 days from the event, so with WFC's new share count becoming known on 15th October, then Berkshire, by the close of Friday 25th October would presumably need to file Form 3 (or possibly 13D or 13G) if the ownership has crept over 10% of WFC.

Form 3, 4, 5: If the issuer is already registered under Section 12, the insider must file a Form 3 within ten days of becoming an officer, director, or beneficial owner. (beneficial owner meaning 10%+)
Changes in ownership are reported on Form 4 and must be reported to the SEC within two business days. You can find the limited categories of transactions not subject to the two-day reporting requirement in the new rule. (I think this is only after you've filed the initial Form 3 and any subsequent changes in ownership occur - e.g. acquiring or disposing of shares. I don't think Form 4 is necessary if you keep the same number of shares and the issuer repurchases shares or issues new shares.)

Schedule 13: Schedule 13D reports the acquisition and other information within ten days after the purchase.

gfp

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #105 on: October 23, 2019, 05:34:39 AM »
Could be from the date of the WFC 10-Q being filed, which would be even later since WFC hasn't actually filed the 10-Q with the SEC yet.  The big banks tend to have quite a delay between their 'earnings release' and the filing of the actual 10-Q.  Berkshire themselves always puts them out simultaneously, which like so many of their practices probably has at its root a pet peeve of Mr. Buffett.  Another pet peeve of Mr. Buffett is how deep into a filing you have to go to find actual financial statements like a balance sheet.  Sometimes its hundreds of pages in.  Berkshire always puts them up front.  Balance sheet on page 2...

Dynamic

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #106 on: October 23, 2019, 07:37:43 AM »
I believe the 25th July filing in relation to BAC was in response to an event on 17th July, which appears to be on the last page of the Press Release included in BAC's 8K filing where it states "Ending common shares issued and outstanding" to be 9,342.6 million, taking Berkshire's 950 million already held prior at 30th June (though not known to us at that time) over 10%.

Also in the 8K supplemental information it states with full precision:
Common stock and additional paid-in capital, $0.01 par value; authorized 12,800,000,000 shares; issued and outstanding 9,342,601,750, 9,568,389,268 and 10,012,719,225 shares
in addition to re-stating the 9,342.6 million rounded figure.

WFC's 8K on 15th Oct, first Exhibit shows:
Common shares outstanding 4,269.1 million at 30th Sep 2019.

I'd imagine that, being an 8-K filed with SEC, it's probably considered a sufficiently official regulatory disclosure, even if it's packaged with press releases, but I guess we'll find out if Berkshire file within the next couple of days.

Dynamic

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #107 on: October 29, 2019, 10:44:35 AM »
There has been no filing from Berkshire about its WFC holding exceeding 10% so far.
The most probable two reasons are:
1. WFC isn't deemed to have disclosed its latest share count within the meaning of form 3 - it only gave a count rounded to the nearest 0.1 million shares as of 30th Sept in press release preliminary financials, not an exact statement of shares outstanding as they would produce in their 10-Q.
2. Berkshire has reduced its holding in WFC during Q3 or even in October, prior to the WFC announcement to below 426.91 million shares.

It may be that WFC is different to BAC and Berkshire has reasons to stay below 10% - closer banking relationships or keeping options open regarding reporting of share sales.

I guess the Berkshire 10-Q is most likely to come out on Sat 2nd Nov, though possibly as late at Sat 9th Nov.

The WFC position will be among the top five holdings, so the 'fair value' of the position at 30th Sept's closing price of $50.44 per share would normally be disclosed in Note 4. Investments in equity securities, rounded to the nearest $0.1 billion. From that we can estimate the number of shares held in each of those top 5.

255.3 million AAPL at $223.97 would round to $57.2 billion ($57,179,614,686 rounded up). It's possible but unlikely that this position has changed in Q3.
950.0 million BAC at $29.17 would round to $27.7 billion ($27,711,500,000 rounded down). This is known. We now know that a few of these shares worth about $65 million were divested with the sale of Applied Underwriters, but only after the 30th September quarter-end date. As it's over 10%, any movements must be reported rapidly to the SEC.
400.0 million KO (Coca Cola) shares at $54.44 will have Fair Value of $21.8 billion ($21,776,000,000 rounded up). This is known, as Berkshire has to file any trades as it owns >10% of KO.
151.6 million AXP (American Express) at $118.28 will have Fair Value of $17.9 billion ($17,932,513,596 rounded down). Again, known as they hold >10%.
WFC could be maybe $21.0 billion to $21.8 billion, the top end being if they haven't sold any shares in Q3. This is the main unknown at present.

A WFC holding remaining at 432,383,973 shares would be reported at $21.8 billion 'fair value' ($21,809,447,598 rounded down), matching KO, and unless Berkshire has sold before WFC reveals their exact share count, we'd then get a Form 3 or Form 4 filing to reveal the 10% holding within about 10 days of Wells Fargo confirming their exact common stock outstanding, presumably in their 10-Q, also likely to be published this week or possibly next.
A reduced WFC holding of, say, 426,900,000 shares would be reported at $21.5 billion 'fair value', which would actually cover a possible range from 425,257,732 to 427,240,285 shares, either of which extreme will only just round to $21.5 billion using conventional rounding rules. This range spans the 10% mark, so we'd have to wait to see if there's a further filing or not.

If Berkshire has sold to stay below 10% during Q3, I imagine they'd have chosen to err on the safe side and have reduced to perhaps 420 million shares or fewer ($21.2 bn).

Berkshire's Fair Value seems to use the widely reported closing price for the last trading day of the quarter every time I've checked (and I've checked the top five positions, like AAPL, BAC, KO, WFC, AXP every quarter for the last 7 or 8 quarters and top 15 every 10-K), and occasional coincidences of rounding break points almost prove they had used the exact closing price I obtained from GoogleFinance and Yahoo Finance.

I'd estimate that the total Fair Value of Investments in equity securities, including Others outside the top 5 (and not including KHC of course), would be no less than $210.7 bn, assuming something new was bought for about $1.0bn to replace RHT after its takeover completed, probably a Todd or Ted merger arbitrage trade. It could well be up to $6bn higher if new after-tax earnings during the quarter were also reinvested into equity securities, so probably a portfolio total in the range $210-$217 billion is possible.

I think they beat the S&P500 by almost 4% for the quarter, although that period is too short to be very meaningful, and I think they have extended that lead to about 7.5% so far in October, after gains for Apple and the banks, with the portfolio on 29th October being valued at about $221-$228 bn I'd imagine, depending how much of the earnings were invested in stocks.

With TTM earnings of about $14.0bn ($5.73 per BRK.B share), I make the trailing P/E ratio of the portfolio about 15.7, and its look through market price around $90.18 per BRK.B share, meaning that at $212.53, you get the operating part of Berkshire for $122.35. If that operating portion brings in a little over $10 per BRK.B share of after tax operating earnings normally, that could be an earnings yield over 8%, or over the whole of BRK.B, fairly conservative look-through earnings (including Berkshire's share of EPS) of say $15.75 per B share (7.4% earnings yield on $212.53). This year, the share of KHC write-downs has depressed reported earnings, but I think over $15.75 per B share is probably a fair normalized figure for look-through earnings.

gfp

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #108 on: October 29, 2019, 11:42:24 AM »
thanks Dynamic.  Yes, earnings release is this Saturday morning.  I'll be in the country for the weekend at an old 1820's plantation with no printer.  Hoping to sneak a laptop in...

Curious to see if he's still selling down Wells, adding to JPM or any other new surprises.  That apple position sure perked up.  255 million shares is no joke - sooner or later you're talkin' real money

Dynamic

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Re: Look through portfolio - Google Sheets with live prices
« Reply #109 on: October 29, 2019, 12:18:29 PM »
Enjoy your weekend gfp. I think I could wait til Monday to digest the results if we're out having fun, though my timezone gives me a few extra hours before the market opens. A few quarters lately I've had my first look on my smartphone while out visiting friends, but it's hard to resist taking an early look and calculating a couple of numbers I've been looking for.