Author Topic: Mystery Berkshire Investment  (Read 40545 times)

Dooba

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Mystery Berkshire Investment
« on: February 09, 2021, 01:18:15 PM »
The last 10-Q showed $245bb in equity investments. The most recent 13-F filing showed 228.9bb in equity portfolio and noted that they have a confidential position that hasn't been disclosed publicly yet.

Ideas on what this mystery 16.5bb investment could be (and I assume he was still adding this quarter)? Given the Apple stake, the relative size of the investment (which I assume wouldn't be more than 15-20% of the total CSO), and the more reasonable recent valuations, perhaps Facebook?
ďI have never seen a management consultantís report in my long life that didnít end with the following paragraph: 'What this situation really needs is more management consulting.' Never once. I always turn to the last page."-Charlie Munger


Matson125

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2021, 01:25:01 PM »
my guess is Fiserv

gfp

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2021, 01:25:41 PM »
The last 10-Q showed $245bb in equity investments. The most recent 13-F filing showed 228.9bb in equity portfolio and noted that they have a confidential position that hasn't been disclosed publicly yet.

Ideas on what this mystery 16.5bb investment could be (and I assume he was still adding this quarter)? Given the Apple stake, the relative size of the investment (which I assume wouldn't be more than 15-20% of the total CSO), and the more reasonable recent valuations, perhaps Facebook?

I don't think its as cut and dry as that to guess the size of the undisclosed purchase because a.) Berkshire owns foreign securities that are included in the 10-Q equities but not listed in a 13-F; and b.) Berkshire files two 13-F filings, the one you reference and certain portions of the 13-F for General Re New England Asset Management. 

Long story short - I don't think the undisclosed equity investment was as large as you think it was at quarter end.

Dooba

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2021, 01:39:23 PM »
Thanks, a lot of back of the envelope math and I definitely overlooked the foreign holdings not being reported in the 13-F, but carried on the balance sheet under the equity investments. Given BYD and the recent trading company investments, it's clear it's not $16bb, and may not even be half that. On the other hand, it's clearly something he is building a position in, or he wouldn't be making use of the SEC exemption.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2021, 01:58:06 PM by Dooba »
ďI have never seen a management consultantís report in my long life that didnít end with the following paragraph: 'What this situation really needs is more management consulting.' Never once. I always turn to the last page."-Charlie Munger

ValueMaven

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2021, 01:59:44 PM »
Is it out yet???  I've suspected GE for sometime...

Casey

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2021, 02:04:26 PM »
my guess is Google

gfp

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2021, 02:30:51 PM »
Thanks, a lot of back of the envelope math and I definitely overlooked the foreign holdings not being reported in the 13-F, but carried on the balance sheet under the equity investments. Given BYD and the recent trading company investments, it's clear it's not $16bb, and may not even be half that. On the other hand, it's clearly something he is building a position in, or he wouldn't be making use of the SEC exemption.

I remember thinking it was probably a $4-5 Billion position in the quarter at cost basis but even that reasoning ignored the possibility of part of that number being separate additional purchases of foreign securities (like the Japanese trading company basket, potential European Pharma for his basket, etc)

People were comparing the new purchases of equities figure for the quarter with the disclosed new purchases in the 13-F.

Of the $16.5 Billion difference you note, approx. $3.6 Billion is accounted for at General Re NEAM, $3 Billion for the BYD value at quarter end, and then whatever other foreign securities they hold, japan, europe, etc..
« Last Edit: February 09, 2021, 02:39:43 PM by gfp »

nwoodman

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2021, 02:34:35 PM »
my guess is Google
+1 Thatís my feeling too.  A self proclaimed mistake of omission.  If this is the one hopefully weighted more towards $1000 than $2000 per share. 

Buffett's longtime partner, Charlie Munger, also lamented not investing in Google.

"We could see in our own operations how well that Google advertising was working," Munger told the crowd at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting (2019) "And we just sat there sucking our thumbs."

"I feel like a horse's ass for not identifying Google," he added. "I think Warren feels the same way. We screwed up."

"He's saying, 'We blew it,'" Buffett added.

rkbabang

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2021, 02:42:06 PM »
BTC? 

OK, JK,  I'd guess Google as well.

ourkid8

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Re: Mystery Berkshire Investment
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2021, 02:46:12 PM »
My guess is FB due to valuation.