Just a few comments on Tilson's valuation:
1. I've argued, too, that the insurance businesses are worth more than just the value of the investments, provided that the combined ratio over time is less than 1.0. However valuing the insurance businesses as investments plus 8x normalized earnings seems to be a little bit of a stretch.
2. On the other hand, valuing the other operating companies at 8x operating earnings is pretty conservative. Most people who use this model use 11x-13x. Happ8714 applies different multiples to different types of subs. I like happ's approach because it helps to understand the various businesses better.
3. If we apply Tilson's math to Dec 31, 2008, we get an IV of 77,793 + 8*5000 = 118K. I'm not sure what number to put in my summary as Tilson's estimate as of Dec 31. He doesn't explicitly say $118K for Dec 31, and less than one month ago Tilson said that BRK was conservatively worth $130K-$140K/share. That was before the annual report came out, though. Changinging Tilson's estimate from 135K to 118K moves the average for the seven authors from $131K as of Dec 31 to $129K.