Author Topic: 100-to-1 In The Stock Market - Thomas William Phelps  (Read 28385 times)

kirkomi

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Re: 100-to-1 In The Stock Market - Thomas William Phelps
« Reply #30 on: January 10, 2014, 12:09:35 PM »
Believe me, I know and understand very well what you have written. I have read it myself many times! Over and over again. And I have always found it to be scientifically / logically very sound… but unfortunately not very useful!

I agree that it does not find much use. The only thing I use it for is to handicap my confidence. No research, however complete, should give you extreme confidence.
Success is like pregnancy. Everybody congratulates you but nobody knows how many times you got fucked to achieve it.

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giofranchi

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Re: 100-to-1 In The Stock Market - Thomas William Phelps
« Reply #31 on: January 11, 2014, 07:58:14 AM »
I agree that it does not find much use. The only thing I use it for is to handicap my confidence. No research, however complete, should give you extreme confidence.

Quote
All historical facts, by their very nature, are psychological facts.
--Marc Bloch, “The Historian’s Craft”

Business facts are nothing but a part of those historical facts and, therefore, they also are essentially psychological facts.
If you read that classical essay by Mr. Bloch, you come to realize how right Mr. Keynes was, and why, when he said:

Quote
I’d rather be vaguely right, than precisely wrong.

This being said, I agree with you that prudence is always warranted and very welcomed! ;)

Gio
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twacowfca

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Re: 100-to-1 In The Stock Market - Thomas William Phelps
« Reply #32 on: January 11, 2014, 10:09:44 AM »
As for the book and the study.  Without having read it I will review it and call BULLSHIT!  No one can predict the future.  A good chunk of S&P earnings today are from companies that didn't exist or barely existed 25 years ago.  Others have disappeared or shrunk: Kodak comes to mind.  Show me a single company from a list 25 years ago that has gone up by 20 times that you could have predetermined 26 years ago. 

Oh, if only it were that easy.  Mr. Phelps would be richer than Warren.

Al,
don’t you think that business, like any human endeavor, might be taught, learnt, and improved upon? Don’t you think there are patterns that, if properly studied and followed, might at least help and lead to business success? Do you really think everything in business is just random?
If you find common features among companies that in the past went from 1 to 100, why not to look for those same features in the companies you investigate and want to buy?
This being said, I think we learn as much from failure than we do from success. But the point here is my belief that we can learn and get better! I have the book, but have not read it yet… I cannot judge its quality or usefulness. I cannot say if it is a good learning tool, or otherwise… But the tone of your post seems to suggest: A waste of time! No one recognizes a good business from a bad one! Don’t even try! You will never know!
This I think is misleading. And what I try to do every day is to get better and better at business.

Gio

Good point, Gio.  All information is potentially useful for prediction.  That's the heart of Bayes Theorem.  The book provoked more than one profound insight when I read it, although those insights escaped the author.  :)
« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 10:14:36 AM by twacowfca »