Author Topic: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke  (Read 14395 times)

DanielGMask

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2019, 06:12:39 AM »
Wasn't a huge fan.  Having read a lot on decision making lately (particularly Tetlock, and some stuff on Shannon/Thorp/Kelly), I didn't feel like it had that much new in it.

That said, as an introduction, it would probably cover a lot of ground in a very accessible manner, and it was also entertaining.

there seems to be this sort of trend lately in many books. repeat what others have said in more defining game changing works somehow do a lot of podcast interviews and publicity type things. drive book sales

The main idea is a powerful one: To review your ideas and commitment process more often than you do.

"Wanna bet" is her way of saying that when you are stating a point or thinking about something you should be as sure as to bet on your word.
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Liberty

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2019, 11:50:39 AM »
I really like some of the rephrasing that she offers as a way to sharpen thinking and/or get better information.

For example, instead of asking people "are you sure?", asking "how sure are you?"
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merkhet

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #22 on: July 10, 2019, 01:47:52 PM »
Loved hearing her on a podcast recently. Great idea to put numbers on things to discriminate between what one person thinks "probably" means and what another person thinks "probably" means. Will "probably" (:P) pick up the book soon.

Jurgis

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Re: Thinking in Bets - Annie Duke
« Reply #23 on: October 31, 2019, 11:32:56 AM »
Would you say this could serve as an approachable "gateway book" to like the Kahneman and Tversky, et. al. work on cognitive errors and system 1 versus system 2 thinking, etc..?   

She references Kahneman a little.   It is absolutely approachable and there isn't much science to the text itself.  It is not a "dense" read, so you can think about the concepts she introduces during the plethora of anecdotes subsequently put forth.

One detracting item is that the book felt repetitive to me (but I am no expert in cognitive psychology and maybe I just missed the difference between some concepts).

I read the book on a flight.
It felt like a short book. I wonder if it would look short if I had a paper copy. I think e-book publishing encourages writing shortish lightweight books and charging full price for them. And even with that it felt repetitive.

On the positive side, there are couple insights usable in life. If you want to use "thinking in bets" in investing, I think you are better off with Kelly's, since it's essentially the same thing and yet more quantitative. (If you don't quantify, then your "bet" is not really a bet  8) ). The other insights are not really her's, but I'm fine with her providing them even if they did not originate from her. Overall, the endnotes and bibliography is very extensive, which is a plus if you want to follow up on something she wrote.

I'd say it's 6/10. Probably worth getting on a cheap and going through fast.
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