Author Topic: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?  (Read 6092 times)

Parsad

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Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« on: November 04, 2020, 04:42:04 PM »
I was listening to the 3rd Q conference call, and Prem made an interesting statement regarding monetizing assets within Fairfax, including taking public certain private businesses within Fairfax in 2021.  What businesses do you think he was referring to and what type of valuation do you expect? 

The closest three guesses...both company and valuation...will each win a gift basket prize next year.  The winners will be selected based on net value they expect from the transaction and getting correct which private business...myself and two other moderators will pick the winners.

Selection(s) need to be posted before December 31st, 2020, and the winners will be announced at the end of Q2 2021.

Cheers!
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bizaro86

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2020, 04:53:42 PM »
My guess is no Fairfax sub will have gone public by Q2 2021.

Parsad

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2020, 05:07:16 PM »
My guess is no Fairfax sub will have gone public by Q2 2021.

Hey, that's worth a prize too if you are right.   ;D  Cheers!
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bizaro86

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2020, 05:24:19 PM »
My guess is no Fairfax sub will have gone public by Q2 2021.

Hey, that's worth a prize too if you are right.   ;D  Cheers!

I'm either going to be exactly right or 100% wrong, which is an excellent position to take for a contest! ;)

I think a late 2021 IPO of Anchorage, the Bangalore Airport holdco is likely, but that's FIH not FFH...

wondering

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2020, 08:19:05 AM »
Maybe Farmers Edge

StubbleJumper

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2020, 08:53:34 AM »
Maybe Farmers Edge


Given that Farmers Edge has been losing money, so it's a bit of a shit-cake I'd be a bit surprised if it were IPO'd on its own.  But in the Michael Lewis tradition, FFH could put some icing on the shit-cake by merging Farmers Edge and AGT into a single agri-food technology and marketing company, and then doing an IPO.


SJ

petec

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2020, 10:09:05 AM »
Tech companies that lose money are a winning combo at the moment!

My guesses would be Farmerís Edge, Quantum, and what I will call Retail Crapco, a Frankenstein entity with all their retail assets. Total market cap about $1bn. *Wild guess*
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valueinvesting101

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2020, 08:37:51 AM »
Anchorage Infrastructure Investments Holdings seems very likely. Valuation around $1.2-1.4 billion.

Xerxes

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2020, 12:26:02 PM »
The comment was made in his prepared remarks and not something blurted out during Q&A session by accident.
Therefore, he is either teasing his audience or there is something in the pipeline, and given the recent divestures probably the latter.

FFH doesn't have any entity on its own balance sheet (except for its insurance subs). (i.e. unlike Onex that has gluskin sheff)

If the intent is to "free up capital" at holding level, than the excerise is largely futile, given that today the money, for the purpose to invest in the hard market, is directionally going from hold-co to the insurance entities that own various bits of the far-flung portfolio. Unless perhaps the capital that is being freed at the portfolio is way more than their needs to investment in the subs + the cost of annual dividend at FFH-level, so that the rest can be dividend back from the subs to the hold-co. while still being able to re-invest in the subs (i.e. changing the direction of net fund flow to hold-co so that it could cover its $300 million dividend)

With that in mind, the target needs either (1) be something that he wants to get rid of at a good price. However, the world is not fair and there is no marketability for rubbish at a good price. Or (2) he needs to monetize something that he does't want to sell but get a good price instead. That should help narrow down the list.

If the monetization is from camp (1) with limited marketability, there would be a BV driven solution as oppose to a hard cash solution in camp (2). 
« Last Edit: November 06, 2020, 12:28:42 PM by Xerxes »

petec

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Re: Contest: Which Fairfax Private Companies Are Going Public?
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2020, 02:26:40 PM »
They do have some assets at the holdco. And listed/liquid assets are better for capital purposes than
Private ones, so thereís that also.
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