Author Topic: Fairfax 2020  (Read 132489 times)

cwericb

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #660 on: November 02, 2020, 01:09:44 PM »
Fairfax always seems to trade with a delay after earnings...

Up 6.5% today despite being down 1% on Friday after earnings were announced.

 I can't say I've paid close attention the last few quarters, but I know this isn't the first time it's taken Fairfax stock a few days to respond to decent earnings. Almost as if the market allows you to see the result, then make the buy decision, and get rewarded for results that were already clear in hindsight.

I have noticed this for years. Doesn't happen every time but more often than not, especially if there is good news. Who needs a crystal ball?
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Viking

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #661 on: November 02, 2020, 01:13:41 PM »
Listened to the WR Berkley conference call. Like all insurers they are having problems with where to invest. As bonds mature they are building cash. They anticipate higher interest rates in the future.

On the conference call lots of questions and concerns from analysts about trying to time bond market purchases and what that does to earnings visibility and predicability. As bonds mature, insurers are going to really struggle to reinvest at acceptable yields.

If low rates persist insurance companies will be looking for yield. BAM is positioned ideally and ready to help them out :-)

覧覧覧覧覧
RBC had this to say in its weekly report on insurance industry: 的t痴 really simple margins go up after rate increases. Some improvement happens quickly, some takes longer to leverage but rate increases are good and we池e getting to the part of the rate story that is turning into the earnings story.

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We have been seeing rate increases for 12-18 months. Q4 results might be when we see improving CR痴, improving operating results and improved earnings.

But because investment results will be under continued pressure (due to low rates) the hard market should continue to run for some time.

Parsad

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #662 on: November 02, 2020, 01:43:54 PM »
Fairfax always seems to trade with a delay after earnings...

Up 6.5% today despite being down 1% on Friday after earnings were announced.

 I can't say I've paid close attention the last few quarters, but I know this isn't the first time it's taken Fairfax stock a few days to respond to decent earnings. Almost as if the market allows you to see the result, then make the buy decision, and get rewarded for results that were already clear in hindsight.

I have noticed this for years. Doesn't happen every time but more often than not, especially if there is good news. Who needs a crystal ball?

Probably buybacks kicking in after the blackout period.  Although, I hope it's just a rational market moving capital to undervalued entities.  Cheers!
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Parsad

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #663 on: November 02, 2020, 01:46:44 PM »
Listened to the WR Berkley conference call. Like all insurers they are having problems with where to invest. As bonds mature they are building cash. They anticipate higher interest rates in the future.

On the conference call lots of questions and concerns from analysts about trying to time bond market purchases and what that does to earnings visibility and predicability. As bonds mature, insurers are going to really struggle to reinvest at acceptable yields.

If low rates persist insurance companies will be looking for yield. BAM is positioned ideally and ready to help them out :-)

覧覧覧覧覧
RBC had this to say in its weekly report on insurance industry: 的t痴 really simple margins go up after rate increases. Some improvement happens quickly, some takes longer to leverage but rate increases are good and we池e getting to the part of the rate story that is turning into the earnings story.

覧覧覧覧覧-
We have been seeing rate increases for 12-18 months. Q4 results might be when we see improving CR痴, improving operating results and improved earnings.

But because investment results will be under continued pressure (due to low rates) the hard market should continue to run for some time.

Large scale renewals will happen in Q4 and into Q1, so you should see a significant bump in premiums relative to the three previous quarters.  Cheers!
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TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #664 on: November 03, 2020, 08:20:52 AM »
Fairfax always seems to trade with a delay after earnings...

Up 6.5% today despite being down 1% on Friday after earnings were announced.

 I can't say I've paid close attention the last few quarters, but I know this isn't the first time it's taken Fairfax stock a few days to respond to decent earnings. Almost as if the market allows you to see the result, then make the buy decision, and get rewarded for results that were already clear in hindsight.

I have noticed this for years. Doesn't happen every time but more often than not, especially if there is good news. Who needs a crystal ball?

Right?!?!?! Glad I had an order out at the open to increase my position 25% @ $268. It's possible we revist that, but not counting on it and was glad to see it filled when I noticed we were up 5+% at the time. 7% yesterday. Up another 6% today. Basically back to knocking on $300/share door which is still stupid cheap IMO - but crazy to think we were at $268 following decent earnings just 48 hours ago.

Xerxes

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #665 on: November 03, 2020, 09:35:37 AM »
To balance my depressing post about FFH's short position since 2016. Here is a more upbeat post for the faithful.
Trying to keep a balance.


Markel

Market cap: $13B

Markel's gross premium came to about $6.9 billion through end of Q3.
To annualize that based on Q3 that comes to $9.2 billion. Last year total gross premium was $8.7 billion as a comparison.

Combined ratio of 101 this year through Q3 compared to 95 last year for Markel.

"The combined ratio for the third quarter of 2020 included $48.9 million, or three points, of underwriting losses attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and $101.0 million, or seven points, of underwriting losses from Hurricanes Laura, Sally and Isaias, as well as the derecho in Iowa and wildfires in the western United States (2020 Catastrophes). The combined ratio for the third quarter of 2019 included $42.6 million, or three points, of underwriting losses from Hurricane Dorian and Typhoon Faxai (2019 Catastrophes).
The combined ratio for the first nine months of 2020 included $373.9 million, or nine points, of underwriting losses attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and $101.0 million, or two points, of underwriting losses from the 2020 Catastrophes. The combined ratio for the first nine months of 2019 included $42.6 million, or one point, of underwriting losses from the 2019 Catastrophes."


FFH

Market cap: $10B
FFH's gross premium came to about $14.2 billion through end of Q3.
To annualize that based on Q3 that comes to $18.9 billion. Last year total gross premium was $17.5 billion as a comparison.

Combined ratio of 98.5 this year through Q3 compared to 97 last year for FFH.

"In the third quarter of 2020, all of our insurance companies achieved a combined ratio below 100%, except for
Brit. Our consolidated combined ratio of 98.5% in the third quarter of 2020 included catastrophe losses of $218.6
million or 6.1 combined ratio points and COVID-19 losses of $143.2 million or 4.0 combined ratio points.
Core
underwriting performance continues to be very strong with a combined ratio excluding COVID-19 losses of 94.5%,
continued favourable reserve development and growth in gross premiums written of 13.9%, and operating income
was $254.7 million despite the catastrophe and COVID-19 losses. We continue to focus on being soundly financed
and ended the quarter with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and investments in the holding company
,"
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 09:40:13 AM by Xerxes »

bluedevil

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #666 on: November 09, 2020, 07:44:56 AM »
This vaccine news should really help Fairfax.  They have so many investments that were hammered by the virus -- Eurobank; Exxon; Thomas Cook India; Bangalore Airport; Recipe restaurant business.  And so few that benefited from the virus.

petec

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #667 on: November 09, 2020, 07:56:19 AM »
This vaccine news should really help Fairfax.  They have so many investments that were hammered by the virus -- Eurobank; Exxon; Thomas Cook India; Bangalore Airport; Recipe restaurant business.  And so few that benefited from the virus.

Yup-plus that Zoom short ;)
FFH MSFT BRK BAM ATCO LNG IHG TFG

Jurgis

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #668 on: November 09, 2020, 08:08:59 AM »
Yup-plus that Zoom short ;)

Fairfax is short Zoom?  :o
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petec

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Re: Fairfax 2020
« Reply #669 on: November 09, 2020, 08:10:38 AM »
Yup-plus that Zoom short ;)

Fairfax is short Zoom?  :o

Speculating! Read upthread (or maybe it was on another thread.)
FFH MSFT BRK BAM ATCO LNG IHG TFG