Author Topic: Fairfax Africa  (Read 8070 times)

elliott

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Re: Fairfax Africa
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2019, 03:34:03 AM »
Third quarter interim report is now available in FAH website.

Quote
The book value per share at September 30, 2019 was $8.54 compared to $9.60 at December 31, 2018

I have recalculated the BVPS using updated market data (public stocks). Almost no change at all from the reported figure above. Shares closed yesterday at USD 5.90

There might be several reasons for the discount:
  • the fees
  • the dismal performance of the public stock investments
  • the uncertainty related to the valuation of the private equity investments

In the first 9 months of the year the company has bought back and cancelled close to 5% of total outstanding shares at the end of fiscal year 2018.


petec

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Re: Fairfax Africa
« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2019, 02:37:40 AM »
Updated valuation attached. My conclusions are:

- Valuation is 0.7x P/BV or 0.6x if you value ATMA at TBV.
- The holdco is hugely underlevered, with $170m of cash and only $8m of liability.
- ATMA is clearly undervalued and Nova Pioneer is exciting but neither really moves the needle.
- The rest is stodge: cash, loans with little upside optionality, and AGH, which hasn't performed in years.
- I don't really see where the performance comes from, at least until they have deployed more capital, and frankly their record on that isn't great.

hobbit

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elliott

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Re: Fairfax Africa
« Reply #23 on: January 13, 2020, 07:11:00 AM »
...not to mention that last november Equitys stock went up 50%. meaning, the 6-7% stake that Atlas Mara was to receive is much more valuable now than when the deal was initially disclosed - if my memory doest no fail. I wonder how the parties will deal with this.