Author Topic: Fairfax stock positions  (Read 25202 times)

Viking

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1583
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #60 on: December 12, 2019, 10:30:33 AM »
Fairfax’s second largest investment is Eurobank. The recent election of a pro-business government (and the fact they secured a majority) is a big deal. For Eurobank, positive that ‘Hercules’ plan is moving forward (will remove a large chunk of non-performing loans from balance sheet of banks). Real estate prices are up 7% year over year; expected to increase at faster rate over next year; also very positive for banks (their main form of colateral). While Greece continues to have its share of issues, it does look to be improving with an improving outlook and this bodes well for Eurobank stock in the coming years.

Dec.09 -- Alex Patelis, chief economic adviser to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, discusses his expectations for Greece's economy and the Hercules plan. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: European Close."
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/videos/greece-could-cut-np-stock-by-half-with-hercules-scheme-patelis-says/vi-BBY0t8W
« Last Edit: December 12, 2019, 10:37:52 AM by Viking »


Viking

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1583
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #61 on: December 16, 2019, 03:09:17 PM »
Here is an update of Fairfax’s Seaspan investment as of today:
1.) $500 million / $6.50 per share = 77 million shares
- $14 (share price today) - $6.50 (cost) = $7.50 = $578 million
- investment was made in two stages; 1/2 in early 2018 and 1/2 in early 2019
2.) 25 million warrants: $14 - $8.05 (exercise price) = $5.95 x 25 mill shares = $149 million
- awarded early 2019
- not sure how FFH values these as i dont think they have been exercised

3.) APR Energy: $300 mill / $11.10 per share = 27 million shares
- $14 (share price today) - $11.10 (cost) = $2.90 x 27 million shares = $78 million
- my estimate of what FFH will get when deal closes in Q1 2020 (deal was announced Nov 2019)

Bottom line, as of today FFH is up on its Seaspan investment (since inception) $578 + $149 + $78 = $805 million. Yes, it is a paper gain as Seaspan looks to be a long term hold. It does demonstrate how FFH swings for the fences when it invests. And when it connects the returns can be very good (in thiscase 24 months later).

4.) senior notes 2023 = $500 million at 5.5% = $27.5 million interest income each year

This part of their investment is icing on the cake.

On Sept 30 Seaspan was trading at $10.63. Trading at about $14 today stock is up 32% in past 10 weeks.
« Last Edit: December 16, 2019, 03:27:16 PM by Viking »

petec

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1952
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #62 on: December 17, 2019, 12:41:01 AM »
Here is an update of Fairfax’s Seaspan investment as of today:
1.) $500 million / $6.50 per share = 77 million shares
- $14 (share price today) - $6.50 (cost) = $7.50 = $578 million
- investment was made in two stages; 1/2 in early 2018 and 1/2 in early 2019
2.) 25 million warrants: $14 - $8.05 (exercise price) = $5.95 x 25 mill shares = $149 million
- awarded early 2019
- not sure how FFH values these as i dont think they have been exercised

3.) APR Energy: $300 mill / $11.10 per share = 27 million shares
- $14 (share price today) - $11.10 (cost) = $2.90 x 27 million shares = $78 million
- my estimate of what FFH will get when deal closes in Q1 2020 (deal was announced Nov 2019)

Bottom line, as of today FFH is up on its Seaspan investment (since inception) $578 + $149 + $78 = $805 million. Yes, it is a paper gain as Seaspan looks to be a long term hold. It does demonstrate how FFH swings for the fences when it invests. And when it connects the returns can be very good (in thiscase 24 months later).

4.) senior notes 2023 = $500 million at 5.5% = $27.5 million interest income each year

This part of their investment is icing on the cake.

On Sept 30 Seaspan was trading at $10.63. Trading at about $14 today stock is up 32% in past 10 weeks.

It's been a spectacular investment.

I posted an updated valuation on the SSW thread yesterday, if that's of interest.

Xerxes

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 10
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #63 on: January 06, 2020, 08:19:36 PM »
Howdy folks,
My new year resolution has been to join this board and stop being cheap (the $29 fee) and start to contribute to a great forum that I have been over-learning from.
So I joined:

I will add this company as well to this list of FFH's holding: AGT Food and Ingredients.
It was taken private a while back. Here is an article from earlier this year on how the likes of Beyond Meat are creating more demand for AGT Foods. Unrelated to peas, the podcast talks also about how their (AGT/FFH) control of railway to the Port of Churchill present them with a nice long-term play real option (as Arctic recedes) as that is the only major railway heading that way, and IIRC Churchill is the only Arctic port on the Canadian side .. vs .. several or so on the Russian side.

https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/agriculture/peas

Here is the CEO on podcast with the Canadian Club of Toronto that I had found to be super interesting. You will find many other interesting podcasts well.
 
https://player.fm/series/series-2416203/murad-al-katib-president-and-ceo-agt-food-and-ingredients-inc


Sombunall

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Fairfax stock positions
« Reply #64 on: January 07, 2020, 04:59:35 AM »
Welcome Xerxes. And thank you for this. I look forward to your future contributions!