Author Topic: Fairfax 2021  (Read 20321 times)

StubbleJumper

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #120 on: January 23, 2021, 10:10:33 AM »
They’re roughly breakeven today. 400m in earnings probably needs 500m more in revenue. Give it take.

That’s 50m cars a year with $10 of BB software per car. Very possible, but also a LONG way from where they are now.


That's the math.  But, to expand on that math, it's worth noting that all of the car manufacturers in the entire world only build about 70m cars per year, and maybe tack on another 20m commercial vehicles for a total of ~90m.  While one might reasonably anticipate that BB technology might find its way into the major North American, Japanese and European cars, I have serious reservations about the likelihood of the lower-end Chinese or Indian manufacturers actually paying to install BB tech into their cars.  So, you start with about 90m units, subtract off 30m for those produced in China and India and that leaves BB a potential market of about 60m units per year. 

If BB were to get their tech into 50m out of the ~60m cars produced in developed countries, that would be one hell of a good market penetration...


SJ


Viking

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #121 on: January 23, 2021, 10:33:24 AM »
More positive press for Blackberry.

The Globe’s stars and dogs for the week

- https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-the-globes-stars-and-dogs-for-the-week-139/

BlackBerry Ltd. (STAR)    $17.85+5.37 (43.03%)

Maybe it should be renamed BlackBerry In Motion. Shares in the company have been skyrocketing faster than the Waterloo housing market this year, almost doubling in value since the start of this year. There’s been a slew of good news of late, including a patent dispute settlement with Facebook and a partnership with Amazon to work on cloud-based vehicle software. But for now, it is stock market momentum that’s really got this former tech darling charged up. BlackBerry is back with a new kind of playbook – and, for a change, this one is getting rave reviews.

no_free_lunch

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #122 on: January 23, 2021, 11:49:17 AM »
I don't know blackberry but with these platforms it's more than just the initial revenue.  There will be an app store, I wonder how that revenue split would work between auto, Amazon, blackberry.  The app store will be a way to target subscription revenue as well.  It's one way I can see the numbers making sense.

It is also possible that $20 per car number does go up as it is guaranteed there will be more and more sensors. For safety if nothing else. Just a question can blackberry grab proportional revenue?

I do think costs will be higher than we would like.   Strong traditional earnings may not emerge even if things go well. However if it pans out there is a very real possibility of a buyout.  While we may not agree with tech valuations they do provide these companies with options to purchase lower priced rivals or bolt ons and still have the numbers make sense to investors.

I still feel ffh is the way to go on this. If it falls who cares it wasn't priced in. If it success not only does nav go up but it could help ffh rerate.

Between this and digit I at least have some hope.  If the covid vaccine works I could see ATCO and fih moving up as well.  I don't see enormous downside and yet I have a  stock that could, with equity appreciation and rerating be a double. 
« Last Edit: January 23, 2021, 11:57:35 AM by no_free_lunch »

Xerxes

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #123 on: January 23, 2021, 01:58:32 PM »
Staying in the realm of option value, as Petec stated:

Here is another one. Few years ago, who would have thought Roku would be anything in the media space in the midst of giants. Yet, precisely because of its size it was able to become the neutral platform that the media giants could be ok with for the last leg; so it triumphed because it became the Switzerland of its space. Blackberry, perhaps has a similar opportunity; John Chen has already indicated what they are doing is being the pipeline of data for the customers, with no economic interest to sell data or monetize it.

chrispy

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #124 on: Today at 05:11:51 AM »
I wish there was some level of certainty on this mystery short position / I wish Fairfax would actually stop shorting.

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #125 on: Today at 05:36:07 AM »

Fairfax’s Blackberry holding is up $400m this morning. I don’t care how....Prem knows more than we do...
The insider dump I see as headline was hardly that it was a dribble of shares sold...I checked and am betting no one else did. Nice to see FAirfax on the other side of a massive short squeeze but BlackBerry’s stock was controlled by short sellers and MM for years. The question is does Prem wait like Onex did...and make $4 or $5b...or sell or does BB stop going up.
I love it because I am not paying for the option when buying Fairfax shares. Get some popcorn today.

It appears to me that there is now trend in smashing undervalued small float value stocks where short sellers and MM have controlled the stock prices for year and years!!! Sound familiar? Look at value stock performance.

It is just what I am seeing...I may be late or early or in the middle no idea! As strategy, at the start it makes sense...WSB target picks are NOT  made by kids...that is for sure. They are carefully thought out and have some  margin of safety at the start...for the most part. Most don’t know that Ford and GM are favourites as well. Pattern?

Dazel

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Re: Fairfax 2021
« Reply #126 on: Today at 05:37:53 AM »


$600m gain now.