Author Topic: Prem Buying - WoW!  (Read 14615 times)

Parsad

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9539
Re: Prem Buying - WoW!
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2021, 10:15:51 PM »
Question: roughly how cheap was FFH trading when Prem bought? price to tangible BV?  price to normalized earnings?


It looks like he bought at an average cost of $308 USD roughly or about $420-425 CDN per share.  It says he bought in the last few days before the press release...I would imagine it was around the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, where the stock was around $425 CDN or less and volumes rose.  If he is buying there, then I would imagine he is expecting a return of better than 15% annualized or more over the next few years.  Cheers!

The question then becomes is Prem expecting a 15% return a good predictor of future 15% returns.

...and one to ask: ''is 15% a realistic expectation?''.

I am approaching a decade of holding FFH and I am seriously wondering if this is a realistic target as recent shareholders (10 years or less) are yet to benefit from such appreciation. It sure attracts new ( and naive) investors. I am tired of hearing the 30 years track record and while I focus on the last 10 years, I can only come to the realization that shareholders fell short of expectations.

yeah , yeah ... I am still around and will for quite some time, but I needed to vent and share ;)

Even during the depths of the hedge fund crisis, when Fairfax stock fell to $53 USD, I don't remember Prem buying shares in such a significant amount.  Frankly, I'm shocked that he put $150M of outside capital into Fairfax...that would be a decades worth of dividends for him.  And if he didn't borrow the money, I would imagine that's probably half his net worth outside of what is held in Sixty-Two Corporation. 

Then again, I've got half my net worth outside of Corner Market Capital in Fairfax and Atlas Corp right now, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised...and I'm very comfortable with both and think both have 50-100% upside over the next 2-3 years!  Cheers!

What is the thesis on ATCO?

David Sokol

I think that was the original thesis, but Bing Chen is an extraordinary manager himself too.  Very impressed by what he's been able to do, how he leads and his investment/finance acumen.  Sokol picked a winning CEO!  Cheers!
No man is a failure who has friends!


Xerxes

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 654
Re: Prem Buying - WoW!
« Reply #31 on: January 15, 2021, 06:29:36 AM »
Here is a video that i watched over the Holidays from Chen. The video was filmed right before Atlas holding was formed.
For those interested to see how he is like, this should serve.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AYf22NC1ws

WARNING: this was filmed pre-Covid, therefore, it might cause you anxiety to see two people so close together. It caused me discomfort.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2021, 07:28:10 AM by Xerxes »