Author Topic: Your position in FFH  (Read 10843 times)

shalab

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Your position in FFH
« on: March 04, 2011, 08:50:20 PM »
Let us do this poll after Watsa's letter today. The letter was good and covered many topics of interest to the shareholders - including why the hedges are in place.



Alekbaylee

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2011, 09:30:24 AM »
Or that part of those neutral were already bullish so they'll keep the same position... ;D

tombgrt

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2011, 01:34:00 PM »
Or that part of those neutral were already bullish so they'll keep the same position... ;D

Correct. I already have a 15% position and only plan to buy more under 0,90-0,95 p/b. I would say that is neutral, although my understanding of Watsa's vision is growing and so is my willingness to buy more shares when the stockprice gets depressed.

I am (wishfully) hoping for a market correction that drags Fairfax down a little extra. That would be a double win considering the hedging.

ourkid8

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2011, 05:35:44 AM »
FFH is starting to look interesting as it is currently sitting around 2.4% below book.  It's selling at $370USD with a book value of $379USD... I can definitely see Pem starting to repurchase shares at this price but not yet on a large scale.  What does everyone think as I am definitely starting to look at liquidating some positions to have cash on hand.  
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 05:41:04 AM by ourkid8 »

Grenville

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2011, 07:01:11 AM »
Do you include goodwill in your calculation of book value per share?

StubbleJumper

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2011, 08:20:58 AM »
Do you include goodwill in your calculation of book value per share?

How about the "bad will" for ICICI Lombard?  ;D

DynamicPerception

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2011, 10:09:50 AM »
Beside the $10.00 dividend;
as of 2011Mar09
I think FFH will take about a $12.00 to $14.00 per share hit on their hedges.
$130mil on the S&P500 and $140mil on the Russell 2000.
$270mil / 20.5mil shares.
Also a small hit on their bonds.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 10:22:20 AM by DynamicPerception »

Hoodlum

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2011, 11:26:11 AM »
Do we know what type of exposure they have to the New Zealand earthquake?

tombgrt

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2011, 11:35:48 AM »
Beside the $10.00 dividend;
as of 2011Mar09
I think FFH will take about a $12.00 to $14.00 per share hit on their hedges.
$130mil on the S&P500 and $140mil on the Russell 2000.
$270mil / 20.5mil shares.
Also a small hit on their bonds.


Aren't current losses of their hedge already +- calculated in their latest bv of 378? Why should we add another 12 to 14$ to their loss? Reduction of time value? (Sorry if this sounds dumb, I don't know anything about derivates.)
Also those are unrealized losses which could (partly) get erased if a market correction hits?


Seems to me that FFH is a great substitute for raising cash at current market levels.

link01

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Re: Your position in FFH
« Reply #9 on: March 10, 2011, 12:54:24 PM »
Beside the $10.00 dividend;
as of 2011Mar09
I think FFH will take about a $12.00 to $14.00 per share hit on their hedges.
$130mil on the S&P500 and $140mil on the Russell 2000.
$270mil / 20.5mil shares.
Also a small hit on their bonds.

on your 270mil hit est on their stock hedges did you net that against their long stock portfolio?