Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 22296 times)

Jurgis

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #20 on: February 29, 2016, 08:18:44 AM »
I could argue that if the EU benefits more from the UK than vice versa

And that's the nationalist egoistic argument to exit. "We would do better without EU". Maybe - although I think ni-co is right and you won't. But then let's split England from Wales, London from the rest of the England, and so on. Cause why support those less rich and less productive regions? They just benefit more from you than you from them.  ::)

The whole reason for EU is that it improves Europe on average. There are some benefits for rich countries, there are some benefits for poorer countries. There are benefits for well (or OK) governed countries, there are benefits for less well governed ones. But yeah, the benefits are not equally distributed and some of them are not even acknowledged as benefits by some (like internal job migration).

It's an easy and wrong solution for rich country/region/etc. to leave just because they are presumably getting less than they are putting in. In my opinion both sides lose from this decision. But even if only the "poorer" or "more bureaucratic" side lost, the decision would still be wrong.
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petec

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #21 on: February 29, 2016, 08:53:48 AM »
Jurgis why would you not, then, unite the entire world under one government?

I actually agree with your moral argument on the face of it.   But I worry that:
a) the bigger the unit of democracy, the smaller the power of the individual area/person to influence policy, meaning that you bottle up tensions everywhere that the government is influenced by them and isn't working for us, which historically is very dangerous.
b) the more the poorer countries are bailed out by the richer ones the less incentive they have to sort out their poor policies - so your moral argument could perhaps be turned on its head.

I realise I'm sounding like a diehard "out"er - I am not, I'm merely offering the counterarguments to the tone of this thread.   I'm genuinely undecided, although I lean towards out for political, not economic, reasons.

P
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Jurgis

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #22 on: February 29, 2016, 09:10:08 AM »
Jurgis why would you not, then, unite the entire world under one government?

I would. But it would depend on the government - and that's clearly your chance to say "Aha, EU is not the good government" - and I may partially agree. :)

And, yes, I might be biased, because I believe that EU government is better than Lithuanian or Hungarian governments. In case of UK, my guess that there are parts of EU rules and regulations that are better than what UK has had, there are parts that are bad and negatively impacting UK. IMO, pro-exit'ers are closing their eyes on benefits and perhaps some pro-EUers are closing their eyes on negatives. I don't know exactly what the balance is for UK, but even if the balance is somewhat negative (not overwhelmingly negative), I'd stay with pro-EU.

BTW, I may be exaggerating, but a lot of arguments for Brexit sound like arguments that could be used to argue about splitting USA or Canada into pieces. I don't think that would be a great idea either. ;)

Edit: BTW, I should acknowledge that there is some reason in your 2 counterarguments. I don't think I agree with them completely - my counterargument to a) would be USA, my counterargument to b) is that I am not talking about bailouts but rather about rules/laws and moral/ethical/philosophical influence. IMHO, young generation of Eastern Europeans benefited a lot from the EU values, rules and laws, even if sometimes there are countermovements against them. 
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 09:17:42 AM by Jurgis »
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

NewbieD

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #23 on: February 29, 2016, 09:10:19 AM »
Trying to think of historical examples of countries being better off after breaking up from a formed union. Can't think of any.

Leaving would be like giving up in a marathon because you have signs of cramping. Hydrate and take some salt instead.

The EU has flaws that need to be fixed, but what is the evidence that it's so flawed it won't be fixed?
It's much easier to come up with examples where incremental improvements turned a so-so thing into something great.

ni-co

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #24 on: February 29, 2016, 09:11:18 AM »
^Thats only true if the only relevant calculation was economic, which it is not.

I agree with that. Maybe I'm arguing too much toowards the homo oeconomicus in the Brits. ;)
« Last Edit: February 29, 2016, 09:12:56 AM by ni-co »

Ballinvarosig Investors

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #25 on: February 29, 2016, 09:28:45 AM »
Trying to think of historical examples of countries being better off after breaking up from a formed union. Can't think of any.
I can think of a few.

Finland separated from Russia and the gap between the two nations has widened to 3x GDP.

Ireland has 25% higher GDP than the United Kingdom today despite being about half the size after independence.

The states that emerged from Serbian dominated Yugoslavia like Slovenia and Croatia have been doing very well in comparison to Serbia.

txitxo

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #26 on: February 29, 2016, 10:04:16 AM »
As a Norwegian minister once put it, “if you want to run Europe, you must be in Europe. If you want to be run by Europe, feel free to join Norway.”

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21693568-david-cameron-will-struggle-win-referendum-britains-eu-membership-if-he-loses

Jurgis

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #27 on: February 29, 2016, 11:25:00 AM »
As a Norwegian minister once put it, “if you want to run Europe, you must be in Europe. If you want to be run by Europe, feel free to join Norway.”

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21693568-david-cameron-will-struggle-win-referendum-britains-eu-membership-if-he-loses

As usual, great article by The Economist. A+++. I probably should subscribe (again) just to support them.
"Human civilization? It might be a good idea." - Not Gandhi
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
"Money is an illusion" - Not Karl Marx
--------------------------------------------------------------------
"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"

Aberhound

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #28 on: February 29, 2016, 12:04:12 PM »
Trying to think of historical examples of countries being better off after breaking up from a formed union. Can't think of any.

There are lots of examples of better off and worse off. Better off includes the US, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Ireland (all from UK) Singapore (from UK then Malaysia), Taiwan (from China), Norway (from Sweden), Holland (from Spain). In each of these cases greater liberty and a less centralized and smaller government resulted in greater prosperity. So if you will enjoy greater liberty you should leave. On the other hand if you will enjoy less liberty if you leave, than you should stay unless it is close to the end and then you should leave to sooner start recovering from the inevitable collapse. The iron law of politics is that bad systems tend to get worse as moral degradation steadily worsens. Increasing centralization usually delays but worsens collapse as the State responds to each crisis by further restricting liberty and further increasing theft from the population and others.

petec

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2016, 12:43:06 AM »
I would. But it would depend on the government - and that's clearly your chance to say "Aha, EU is not the good government" - and I may partially agree. :)

Not quite - but it is where I would say that, since you can't guarantee the quality of government in the future, I think government ought to be chosen at a much smaller level.   As I've said before, the bigger the area of government the less each vote is worth.   Also, there is HUGE value in having different governments trying different things in the world.   I view that as a massive-scale competition for ideas and even population (via migration) and I think a unified world government would be a total disaster for that reason.   Now, perhaps the optimum is 5 regional governments instead of 190 national ones.   Byt my suspicion is not.

IMO, pro-exit'ers are closing their eyes on benefits and perhaps some pro-EUers are closing their eyes on negatives.

I totally agree.

You mention the USA as a counterargument to my point that tensions can build up within a large unit of democracy.   But the USA is a key historical example that scares me.   States joined the union but then turned out to have different ideas of what that meant and the result was a civil war that killed more Americans than all of the USA's other wars put together.   I genuinely see that as a tail risk of future federalisation of the EU.   I truly hope I am wrong but I need a very good reason to take the risk.   Now clearly, Europe has proved that nation states can war very effectively too - but I don't believe the EU is the way to stop that happening again.

EDIT: thanks for taking the time on this.   I realise I look like I'm arguing back, but I am also learning new perspectives and getting less sure about my vote!
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