Author Topic: Climate Change - convince me that this is really a big Net negative  (Read 6196 times)

LongHaul

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Re: Climate Change - convince me that this is really a big Net negative
« Reply #90 on: November 11, 2019, 02:38:09 PM »
Here is an excerpt from an interesting article from Taleb:
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370?s=21
I like the way he thinks about risk generally.

If it could be Russian Roulette - where is the bullet?
A few degrees warmer is going to kill us all?


Spekulatius

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Re: Climate Change - convince me that this is really a big Net negative
« Reply #91 on: November 11, 2019, 04:48:23 PM »
Here is an excerpt from an interesting article from Taleb:
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370?s=21
I like the way he thinks about risk generally.

If it could be Russian Roulette - where is the bullet?
A few degrees warmer is going to kill us all?

Itís not going to kill us all, but it can kill a lot of people directly and indirectly. Not to worry, most of us will be long dead before the consequences set in.
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.

Cigarbutt

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Re: Climate Change - convince me that this is really a big Net negative
« Reply #92 on: November 11, 2019, 05:47:03 PM »
Here is an excerpt from an interesting article from Taleb:
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1193545813785530370?s=21
I like the way he thinks about risk generally.
If it could be Russian Roulette - where is the bullet?
A few degrees warmer is going to kill us all?
Itís not going to kill us all, but it can kill a lot of people directly and indirectly. Not to worry, most of us will be long dead before the consequences set in.
Isn't it hard to plan for the long term? especially the generational things?
In 1986, a sensible fellow wondered about the odds and felt that we should look into it.
This was at a hearing concerning climate change and ozone depletion due to CFCs.
http://archive.macleans.ca/article/1986/6/30/a-threat-to-human-life
"Man is irreversibly altering the ability of our atmosphere to perform life-support functions. It strikes me as a form of planetary Russian roulette.Ē
An argument could be made that in 33 years, another pundit may ask the same question but I wonder if it comes down to the notion of margin of safety. Have you ever done cost flow and breakeven analysis for specific products or subs, or financial distress analysis for specific names entering distress due to leverage. The textbooks typically use linear equations and show straight lines on a graph with illusion of precision to the tenth of a %. However, in these not so complex situations, non-linear changes can occur especially at the margin and a way to obtain some confort with the outcome is to use a larger margin of safety.  i wonder too and i wonder about your level of trust in institutions or scientific "authorities"?


Castanza

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LongHaul

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Re: Climate Change - convince me that this is really a big Net negative
« Reply #94 on: November 19, 2019, 11:33:35 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faQssBpFvmo

Starts at 6:00

Super interesting.  thx for posting. 
I realized I know almost nothing about this topic and it is super complex!

mccole72

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Warren and Charlie weigh in at the 2007 annual meeting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ov3K9APMmkw