2015: ~(20)
2016: 24.7
2017: 25.9
2018: (-14.1)
2019: 25.5
2020: (4.80)
Excluding holdings in BTC, my return was -4.8% for the year (what I voted). Dunno what it was including BTC as I account for that making TWR calculation difficult. Probably would've improved it to +1 or 2% for the year.
My cash return was positive ~4%, but because most of the dollars were made in Q4 with a portfolio that was much larger due to consistent inflows, it didn't improve the prior losses on a TWR basis by enough to end positive.
Went into 2020 roughly 50/50. Worked out well into March, but had shorted the market via SPY/QQQ puts and maintained them through May/June. Didn't think that the sell off would be so "shallow" or end so soon. Still not entirely convinced the fragility is gone :/ stubbornness isn't my best trait.
Bad Moves:
1) Being heavy into EM and cyclicals going into the crisis.
2) Being heavily into mortgage REITS thinking they'd be relatively safe in a sell-off as they proved in 2008
3) Continuing to remain short the market after the bottom passed and doubling down on the way up (responsible for roughly -6% of performance)
4) remaining 50/50 on the way back up due to my skepticism
Good Moves:
1) Bitcoin
2) Adding Gold/Silver call spreads in response to stimulus
3) Adding to Fairfax and Exor at ridiculous prices even AFTER the recovery was apparent
4) Substantially increasing by many fold my holdings in Rolls Royce after rights offering announced
5) sticking with, and adding to, mortgage REITS at significant discounts to NAV
6) refinancing my mortgage and converting an IRA balance to a Roth IRA. Probably more beneficial than all the positive investment decisions combined
Ultimately, disappointed with the performance. I thought that the bear market was certain to be more protracted by the economic damage that was/is still obvious. Got whipsawed on some of my more volatile retail names and sold other performing names too soon.
Also, while most of my stocks underperformed in the downturn, most also proved to underperform in the upturn as well - so far at least. It's only been in the last 60 days or so that they've begun to pop (up like 15-20% in the last 2 months!), but too little too late to save my year-end results.
I had a plan. I stuck to it. It didn't work out as well as hoped. I know what I could've done better, but I don't know why I would've done it because I still don't really understand why what's happened... happened. Still skeptical of valuations. Still see the economy as being fragile. Still don't think the Fed is the one floating this. And still see better value in international stocks and real asset producers. Maybe one day this broken clock will be right.
***Edited to include my prior years of returns for better reference in the future
