Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Broeb22 on January 01, 2021, 06:13:48 PM

Title: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Broeb22 on January 01, 2021, 06:13:48 PM
Whoa setting up that poll like John Hjorth did was tedious on the iPad.

Anyways, what were everyoneís 2020 returns? No judgment given to those who would rather turn the page on 2020 without looking back.

If you also want to share some big winners and losers in the comments that might be interesting...
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: gary17 on January 01, 2021, 06:45:46 PM
i had a good  year with Xpel, Shop and CZO (ceapro) RH and TSLA which i just most sold out around $600. 
i bought a bunch facebook msft appl during the dip and they did well too.  CSU also helped

iím thinking of exiting the market and buy real estate in vancouver.  is that the same as selling tesla to buy air bnb ?? lol
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: EricSchleien on January 01, 2021, 07:52:36 PM
My Account for 2020

+56.68% TWR
+66.12% MWR

Biggest Winners:

Trupanion
Liberated Syndication
Game Account Network
Bragg Gaming
Facebook
Amazon
Conic Metals
AerCap
SandRidge Mississippian Trust I
Manning & Napier
Support.com
Affymax
Myrexis
TSR
Yowie
Wilson Learning Worldwide
Clean Seas Tuna
Brookfield Property
CDR
NTT System SA
Alaska Communications
Think Childcare
Link Administration Holdings
St. Joe Corp
Griffin Industrial
Hingham Institution for Savings

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Viking on January 01, 2021, 08:16:54 PM
iím thinking of exiting the market and buy real estate in vancouver.  is that the same as selling tesla to buy air bnb ?? lol

That comment made my day :-) I am actually thinking of doing the opposite. Gotta love how smart people can look at the exact same situation and see two completely different solutions / ways forward.

No right or wrong. The key is fit. Finding a solution that works for you. Best of luck!   
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Viking on January 01, 2021, 08:24:33 PM
My return for the year came in at 15.6% (a shade better than my long term average).

VERY happy. I started the year heavy Fairfax so it could have easily been a tough year. At the time the pandemic hit capital preservation was my key objective: so mission accomplished. I was also heavy cash for large chunks of the year.

I did more trading in 2021 than ever before. My gains were made in mostly two time periods each time with a basket of stocks: late March/April (tech, dis, nike, sbuck etc - which I sold way too early) and then Nov (more cyclical stuff). Shifting most of my portfolio back to CAN$ during the year also helped (CAN$ strengthened by a couple of % vs the US$).
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: gary17 on January 01, 2021, 09:03:43 PM
iím thinking of exiting the market and buy real estate in vancouver.  is that the same as selling tesla to buy air bnb ?? lol

That comment made my day :-) I am actually thinking of doing the opposite. Gotta love how smart people can look at the exact same situation and see two completely different solutions / ways forward.

No right or wrong. The key is fit. Finding a solution that works for you. Best of luck!

you are thinking of exiting real estate (in Vancouver?) and entering the stock market?

iím definitely not smart financially.  thx to this board (all the contributors and educators and the administrator Sanjeev of course) ó i have had some fun while keeping my capital and some :))
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: LC on January 01, 2021, 09:08:47 PM
Somewhere in the 30-40 range but I have to sit down and calculate the exact percentage.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: valueinvestor on January 01, 2021, 09:48:36 PM
Whoa setting up that poll like John Hjorth did was tedious on the iPad.

Anyways, what were everyoneís 2020 returns? No judgment given to those who would rather turn the page on 2020 without looking back.

If you also want to share some big winners and losers in the comments that might be interesting...

Any chance you can post your returns? Just curious.

Would post mine but since I'm young, I was able to take the concentration risk. Also, my investment track record is only 6 years - so I don't think it matters. However, it is above 50% - still have a long way to go. Hopefully it will provide cushion for the losses to come.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Viking on January 01, 2021, 09:52:57 PM
iím thinking of exiting the market and buy real estate in vancouver.  is that the same as selling tesla to buy air bnb ?? lol

That comment made my day :-) I am actually thinking of doing the opposite. Gotta love how smart people can look at the exact same situation and see two completely different solutions / ways forward.

No right or wrong. The key is fit. Finding a solution that works for you. Best of luck!

you are thinking of exiting real estate (in Vancouver?) and entering the stock market?

iím definitely not smart financially.  thx to this board (all the contributors and educators and the administrator Sanjeev of course) ó i have had some fun while keeping my capital and some :))

Gary, I posted my reply to the real estate thread (Garth Turner :-)
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on January 01, 2021, 10:15:30 PM
2015: ~(20)
2016: 24.7
2017: 25.9
2018: (-14.1)
2019: 25.5
2020: (4.80)

Excluding holdings in BTC, my return was -4.8% for the year (what I voted). Dunno what it was including BTC as I account for that making TWR calculation difficult. Probably would've improved it to +1 or 2% for the year.

My cash return was positive ~4%, but because most of the dollars were made in Q4 with a portfolio that was much larger due to consistent inflows, it didn't improve the prior losses on a TWR basis by enough to end positive.

Went into 2020 roughly 50/50. Worked out well into March, but had shorted the market via SPY/QQQ puts and maintained them through May/June. Didn't think that the sell off would be so "shallow" or end so soon. Still not entirely convinced the fragility is gone :/ stubbornness isn't my best trait.

Bad Moves:
1) Being heavy into EM and cyclicals going into the crisis.

2) Being heavily into mortgage REITS thinking they'd be relatively safe in a sell-off as they proved in 2008

3) Continuing to remain short the market after the bottom passed and doubling down on the way up (responsible for roughly -6% of performance)

4) remaining 50/50 on the way back up due to my skepticism

Good Moves:
1) Bitcoin

2) Adding Gold/Silver call spreads in response to stimulus

3) Adding to Fairfax and Exor at ridiculous prices even AFTER the recovery was apparent

4) Substantially increasing by many fold my holdings in Rolls Royce after rights offering announced

5) sticking with, and adding to, mortgage REITS at significant discounts to NAV

6) refinancing my mortgage and converting an IRA balance to a Roth IRA. Probably more beneficial than all the positive investment decisions combined

Ultimately, disappointed with the performance. I thought that the bear market was certain to be more protracted by the economic damage that was/is still obvious. Got whipsawed on some of my more volatile retail names and sold other performing names too soon.

Also, while most of my stocks underperformed in the downturn, most also proved to underperform in the upturn as well - so far at least. It's only been in the last 60 days or so that they've begun to pop (up like 15-20% in the last 2 months!), but too little too late to save my year-end results.

I had a plan. I stuck to it. It didn't work out as well as hoped. I know what I could've done better, but I don't know why I would've done it because I still don't really understand why what's happened... happened. Still skeptical of valuations. Still see the economy as being fragile. Still don't think the Fed is the one floating this. And still see better value in international stocks and real asset producers. Maybe one day this broken clock will be right.

***Edited to include my prior years of returns for better reference in the future

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: rb on January 01, 2021, 10:32:14 PM
I haven't run the exact numbers but I'm somewhere just shy of 50%. Overall a really good year. But there wasn't anything too bright on my end to achieve that. In fact I consider 2020 the year without too many ideas. Luck played more of a role. Here are the highlights that helped:

1. I had a very heavy AAPL position. This was from back in 2018 when they were giving it away.
2. I have a longstanding large position in MSFT that continued to perform well
3. I built a heavy position in EQR basically at bottom tick shortly before it shot up. Hat tip to the pupil for all the help around that name.
4. I bottom ticked hard REI.UN. That one was easier to do.
5. I took a MASSIVE short position against the USD when it was the obvious thing to do. I also did other trading around FX that added a few points of performance. FX trading is really not what i do. But in recent opportunistic trades helped with performance quite a bit.
6. I bought a fair amount of BRK around 160-170 range. Gotta think what to do now with the position size.
7. Bought some financials pretty cheap

Those lucky evens did they best to offset the negatives:

1. I was quite heavy financials WFC was a large position that got hit hard.
2. The Rolls-Royce position got obliterated.
3. I guess I didn't buy TSLA Į\_(ツ)_/Į

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: LC on January 01, 2021, 11:47:24 PM
Rb, I agree with your overall conclusion. I had no real good ideas, rather all I did this year was triple-down back in March April and use that early sell off to upgrade positions into better companies, buying a GreatCo at 70c versus a GoodCo at 50c. Then got lucky end of year with big moves upward in live nation and cloud flare among others. Frankly I hope every year I can be lucky rather than good.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Edward on January 02, 2021, 12:19:29 AM
55.8% in 2020, net of fees.

Some of it because I loaded up on some non growing but solid companies on the cheap, such as ABR, AER.

Most of the return was mainly good positioning in some great small growing businesses that benefited from the disruption. These were long term holdings before 2020.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: JRM on January 02, 2021, 04:08:37 AM
Looks like ~19% on the year and 23% per year since 2012.

Glad I'm not a fund manager, I'd probably be getting fired.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: John Hjorth on January 02, 2021, 04:30:10 AM
Not totally precise calculations yet, but around minus 3 percent for 2020 pre-tax & after fees etc. [, & took the poll accordingly].

I'm tempted to quote Greg and SharperDingaan from the "Happy New Year"-topic here :


Happy New Year to everyone. 2020 wasnt a bad year, it was just a life experience. What doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and wiser. Hopefully 2021 is the start of the Roaring 20s. Cheers

Happy New Year  ..... and fortune and glory to all!
And the end to a rubbish 2020!!

SD


I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors.

On that backdrop, there's no need to complain about minus 3 percent.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Off topic :

Ended the year with a once-in-a-lifetime experience. R.I.P., Little Brother [Passed away December 31st early in the morning, & way too early].


So here, also a huge thank you to Broeb for picking up the baton on this yearly recurring topic.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: scorpioncapital on January 02, 2021, 04:36:25 AM
Is that realized and/or unrealized gains? It's a huge difference. I wouldn't exactly say paper gains are real until taken.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: kab60 on January 02, 2021, 05:25:26 AM
2020: 45 pct.
2019: 23 pct.
2018: -7 pct.
2017: 19 pct.
2016: 45 pct.
2015: 13 pct.

I feel like I'm getting better, but I also reckon most might just be luck and a small sample size. Was approx. 115 pct net long going into March, dialed up and down during the year to a max around 120 pct before the presidential election.

Got absolutely clobbered in March with positions in (among other things) Spirit Airlines, Alliance Data Systems and AMA Group and no tech apart from a microcap in France. Down 50 pct at one point from February high. Averaged down in all three before realizing how bad it would be for Airlines with fixed and operating leverage. Took my losses in Spirit and deployed into better risk/reward situations. Did a ton of buying and selling, never seen so many good spots to pick from, but ended up with a portfolio looking a lot like it did going into the year with a lot of Berkshire, Linamar, Altria, Ulta Beauty, Clipper Logistics and Cambria Automobiles among the biggest. Made some costly mistakes like averaging down in Spirit, and not swinging at some stuff right in my wheelhouse, but overall satisfied. Returns are in euro, and the dollar was obviously a large headwind.

Sorry for your loss, John. Best wishes for the new year my fellow Dane.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Broeb22 on January 02, 2021, 05:35:59 AM
Whoa setting up that poll like John Hjorth did was tedious on the iPad.

Anyways, what were everyoneís 2020 returns? No judgment given to those who would rather turn the page on 2020 without looking back.

If you also want to share some big winners and losers in the comments that might be interesting...

Any chance you can post your returns? Just curious.

Would post mine but since I'm young, I was able to take the concentration risk. Also, my investment track record is only 6 years - so I don't think it matters. However, it is above 50% - still have a long way to go. Hopefully it will provide cushion for the losses to come.

I had nearly 29% returns, so very happy with that but also looking at my portfolio and not seeing a lot of value.

Large detractor was CVET which I sold close to the bottom due to leverage concerns which CD&R made irrelevant weeks later.

Large contributors:
TRRSF
PINS
STNE
FB
JD
GDYN
FSV
EPAM
CARR


Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: arcube on January 02, 2021, 06:04:56 AM
Sorry to hear that John. I wish you peace.

Not totally precise calculations yet, but around minus 3 percent for 2020 pre-tax & after fees etc. [, & took the poll accordingly].

I'm tempted to quote Greg and SharperDingaan from the "Happy New Year"-topic here :


Happy New Year to everyone. 2020 wasnt a bad year, it was just a life experience. What doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and wiser. Hopefully 2021 is the start of the Roaring 20s. Cheers

Happy New Year  ..... and fortune and glory to all!
And the end to a rubbish 2020!!

SD


I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors.

On that backdrop, there's no need to complain about minus 3 percent.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Off topic :

Ended the year with a once-in-a-lifetime experience. R.I.P., Little Brother [Passed away December 31st early in the morning, & way too early].


So here, also a huge thank you to Broeb for picking up the baton on this yearly recurring topic.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gregmal on January 02, 2021, 06:39:11 AM
I did more trading in 2021 than ever before. My gains were made in mostly two time periods each time with a basket of stocks: late March/April (tech, dis, nike, sbuck etc - which I sold way too early) and then Nov (more cyclical stuff). Shifting most of my portfolio back to CAN$ during the year also helped (CAN$ strengthened by a couple of % vs the US$).

I think this is a very strong takeaway that cant be stated enough. Over the years Ive become more and more grateful for flipping my "value investor" position on the concept of "trading". For a long time I subscribed to the notion sold by people like Buffett that "short term trading is a fools game". There is a huge contingency of "value investor" who are almost willfully proud about being stupid and dismissive of the idea of trading. They're kind of like anti vaxxers or Earth is flat folks. But the truth is that managing investments with a trading angle is a massively beneficial tool in terms of managing risk and being opportunistic. Ive read in a few places that like 85% of the markets returns occur during something like 10% of its trading days. Even with respect to this year, I had many reminders of this. Selling DDS puts and buying calls a few days before the short squeeze thesis played out after Teds 13G netted over 800% and buying $100 MSGE calls while the stock languished between $65-75 just seemed too good to be true...and paid off between 170-1600%. Being flexible in philopshy and dynamic in application was a lesson that 2020 cemented in me. Trading in a sense, is really just monetizing volatility.

@John Hjorth. Sorry for your loss. It is easy to look at things in the simple good/bad context. Ive had a number of events in my life that most been would describe as "not good" or probably even much worse. At the time they are unpleasant. Painful even. But as you get through them I find them just as valuable and even more so than "good" events or memories. I dont think Id describe any of them, in hindsite, as "bad" experiences though. Same with 2020. Everything one experiences in life molds that person and their pool of wisdom/understanding. Like a video game, as you advance, having conquered past levels, you inevitably carry with you those lessons. Hopefully you and your family are well in the new year and may your brother rest in peace.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 02, 2021, 07:04:46 AM
Far too early for this, but > 100% TWR in the equity portfolios, net of a return of capital.

We weren't 'investing' as in 'buy and hold'. We were primarily swing trading to lower cost bases and build share count.
'Donny' was very good to us with his 1700-2000 point daily swings, as was Bitcoin, WCP, CPG, and most other oil/gas. Even PD and OBE net of consolidations, and recent run-ups!. Today we have large share counts (for retail) in very good companies, record cash sitting in FFH stock, and a healthy CAD/Pound FX hedge going the right way. Over the next 12 months, most of it will be partially reinstating dividends as well. We will be eating well for a very long time!

The big take-away this year, was the value of returning capital right after a run of obscene trades. Short-circuiting the corruption of fast money worked very well for us, and it benefited a lot of people. It will benefit us again this tax season.

Every day, something new.

SD


 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: writser on January 02, 2021, 07:18:58 AM
Here we are, the day of reckoning! First of all, I'm a bit surprised that currency is neglected in the topic again. Euro returns are quite a bit worse than dollar returns in 2020 due to all the money being printed by uncle Sam. When John (my condolences) says he is down 3% I assume that that is in EUR, which means a performance in dollar of about +6%. Quite a difference.

Anyway. My after-tax net return is about ~5% in EUR or ~14% in USD. I don't really keep track of pre-tax / post-tax returns - I only manage my own money, I pay a flat wealth tax and my goal is to minimize after-tax returns so I include stuff like tax credits generated during the year in my portfolio performance. My ten year CAGR is now about 18.x% without a single down year.

My style can best be described as 'garbage sifting'. That's not really a style I expect to outperform with in a raging bull-market. And it didn't :) . I'm reasonably happy with what happened in March: even though I was about fully invested (as I almost always am) and some special situations went bust my portfolio wasn't down a crazy amount and I could still sleep very well. Mostly I kept on doing what I always do. I'm not the guy who makes big calls, macro bets or bold 'recovery plays' or whatever.

What was very frustrating this year though (investing-wise - overall it was actually very satisfying) was having a one year old kid. Before the kid I used to work in the living room. Well, guess how that worked out early 2020. The shit hits the fan, markets are down 5% a day, country goes in lockdown, daycare closes, and both me and my wife try to work in the living room while a one year old is eating and destroying everything in sight. Good luck trying to analyze a mortgage REIT when your kid is obsessed by the blue power button on your computer. Biggest crisis of the decade but for me it was basically impossible to get into the right frame of mind and find the time to do some serious work. We ended up making a small office upstairs where we split our time. Still, we are again in lockdown now and again it is very hard to get serious work done. I've looked into hiring some office space during the year and maybe that's something I have to reconsider this year - especially given that there's another kid on the way.

This whole work-from-home situation led me to being frustrated and tired too often, which led to some unforced errors and sloppy due diligence. And I find that grating. I'm perfectly content with looking in the garbage can while others are up 500% with Tesla or whatever but at least I'd like to feel that I gave it my best effort and that wasn't always the case this year. So, overall I'm a bit salty. I need to find a better investing / life balance and if that doesn't happen during the next few years I will consider renting an office, outsourcing my investment work, putting it on hold or changing my style to be a bit more passive / low turnover. I like what I do and I'm confident that my approach to investing has its merits and a risk/return profile that I am content with so probably I will just go on but I'm keeping my options open. The end goal is to maximize happiness in life, not performance on the stock exchange. So far these goals have always more or less aligned for me as I love doing this but in 2020 that wasn't always the case.

Also, this is probably something for another topic but I didn't find this forum a particularly compelling / value-adding place to be in 2020. I find myself spending less and less time here and moved on to some other places. Maybe that's just me being a sore loser though in 2020! Thanks to thepupil for opening thousands of interesting real estate threads this year. Also, the GRIF thread was great, polite and worthwhile. You guys got me very close to buying but I never pulled the trigger. And a big shoutout to alwaysinvert for having lots of cool original Skandi ideas. Really happy with my Treasure ASA position this year and I think it has great prospects for 2021. Also a shoutout to Gregmal. Seems like he actually got more reasonable and nuanced here during a year in which a lot of people didn't. Didn't see that coming - that's probably me being fixed in my own ways. This just from the top of my head - please don't feel offended if you helped me in some way or another or posted cool stuff and I didn't mention you.

And finally a shoutout to all the people working in daycare. I seriously think I would have a burn-out within a week.

Onwards to 2021. Looking forward to it!
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: chrispy on January 02, 2021, 07:22:26 AM
31% in my managed accounts
40+% in Employer 401k

Made the decision early on to put my entire 401k into cash as the markets were still slightly positive and the downside seemed tremendous if shut downs happened. 

Had a child on Mar 20th and the hospital at the time was the most eerie place I have ever spent time. Deserted and nothing but ominous talk of the virus on the way. No one was wearing masks at the time.

Based on that, I am quite proud I was able to deploy all capital shortly after near the bottom. Bought higher quality companies so I could set it, forget it, and take care of my family and other life demands.

What is amazing about 2020 is I could have easily had -10 to 10% returns and also could have had >70% returns.

I have learned a tremendous amount during 2020 with regards to investing and businesses.  We all saw an entire business cycle in 9 months. Thank you to everyone on this board for their contributions.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Spekulatius on January 02, 2021, 07:45:39 AM
I am at a hair less than 10% this year. One excuse is that I managed it with way less volatility than the SP500. I am happy with the result,  it could have been way better than that. This year was the year for the bold but I canít afford 50% hits in my age.

Pluses were waiting out some declines from early to mid March and mistake was waiting too long until the end of April to do something and partly those went into the wrong sectors (not tech heavy enough, defense stocks etc).

I am pretty happy with my portfolio as is right now and I think everyone who made some money, stayed healthy, and has a job is a winner in my book.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: deleuze68 on January 02, 2021, 08:13:33 AM
Thank you for that post writser as so much resonates with me and I don't even have a child (although I was taking care of my 2 year old niece twice a week in the Spring to relieve some pressure on her WFH parents).

As for myself, I was up 30% on the year. I had actually sold a bunch of holdings in January/February as the market was looking a little frothy. This ideally positioned me for the March drop but unfortunately everything just moved so fast that I never had the opportunity to fully take advantage (other than a bunch of quick in and out swing trades). Most of the year's gains came from purchases made in June/July as things settled down and as I was able to pick away at some market laggards.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gregmal on January 02, 2021, 08:20:11 AM
+1 of the curveball with kids and WFH. I literally was doing 9:30-4s from my car w/ WiFi for good chunks of the year. Always adapting lol.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: s8019 on January 02, 2021, 08:54:09 AM
I'm reasonably happy with what happened in March: even though I was about fully invested (as I almost always am) and some special situations went bust my portfolio wasn't down a crazy amount and I could still sleep very well.

Unfortunately, I'm not so smart, so I just stopped checking the quotes for my portfolio for a while (except for the stocks that I wanted to sell anyway). I knew that I was down, probably by a lot, but only a couple of months later I found out that my portfolio was down by a whopping 40%+ YTD by mid-March. However, there was no point to look at it back then. It was kind of obvious (I've checked my notes from the time) that barring a nuclear war scenario the value was still there, either in terms of long term cash flows or balance sheet or whatever you do to value stocks. So assuming that stocks are not just pieces of toilet paper circulating in an outlandish global casino but represent a stake in some business there was no point to self-torture by way of constantly refreshing panicky mark-to-market prints of my portfolio holdings.

As for the kids, we hired a nanny for a few months. It cost us a small fortune, but eventually, it was worth every single euro cent. Neurons are not compounding, unlike investments.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: KJP on January 02, 2021, 09:21:53 AM
2020:  14%

Historical
2020: 14%
2019: 31%
2018: 11%
2017: 10%
2016: 22%

Largest positive 2020 impact on portfolio:  Griffin Industrial, Charter, IES Holdings, Rosetta Stone, Parkit, Williams, IAC
Largest negative 2020 impact on portfolio:  Black Stone Minerals, Wells Fargo, Hill International

After a good 2019, I was fat, lazy, and unprepared in March, which led to some poor investment decisions, poor portfolio management, and missed opportunities.  Hopefully I've learned a few lessons.

The distribution of returns in the voting is interesting.  If the S&P is down, say, 15% next year, will we have the opposite negative skew to returns (a fat tail with -50% returns), or have board members mastered catching big upside while avoiding big downside? 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Broeb22 on January 02, 2021, 09:27:40 AM
Ive read in a few places that like 85% of the markets returns occur during something like 10% of its trading days.

This is kind of besides the point, but I believe that quote you always see from CNBC about "you gotta be in the market because the 10 best days account for all of the return in any given year". It's such a cherry-picked fact. When did those trading days occur? Probably during periods of heightened volatility where the market was swinging up and down wildly. So in order to get the best trading days you had to stomach the worst trading days too.

I've never actually looked at this before, but it confirms my suspicion about the "best trading days" garbage CNBC feeds retail investors.

The attachment shows the 2020 trading days ranked in order (by absolute value of returns) and shows you that the best and worst days were clustered around March and April with a few exceptions outside that time.




Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Spekulatius on January 02, 2021, 09:45:44 AM
Ive read in a few places that like 85% of the markets returns occur during something like 10% of its trading days.

This is kind of besides the point, but I believe that quote you always see from CNBC about "you gotta be in the market because the 10 best days account for all of the return in any given year". It's such a cherry-picked fact. When did those trading days occur? Probably during periods of heightened volatility where the market was swinging up and down wildly. So in order to get the best trading days you had to stomach the worst trading days too.

I've never actually looked at this before, but it confirms my suspicion about the "best trading days" garbage CNBC feeds retail investors.

The attachment shows the 2020 trading days ranked in order (by absolute value of returns) and shows you that the best and worst days were clustered around March and April with a few exceptions outside that time.

If you state how much of the market return occurs in a few best days, you also need to state how much of a decline you could have avoided being out of the market for the few worst days to make this assessment more symmetrical.,
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 02, 2021, 09:58:15 AM
2020:  14%

Historical
2020: 14%
2019: 31%
2018: 11%
2017: 10%
2016: 22%

Largest positive 2020 impact on portfolio:  Griffin Industrial, Charter, IES Holdings, Rosetta Stone, Parkit, Williams, IAC
Largest negative 2020 impact on portfolio:  Black Stone Minerals, Wells Fargo, Hill International

After a good 2019, I was fat, lazy, and unprepared in March, which led to some poor investment decisions, poor portfolio management, and missed opportunities.  Hopefully I've learned a few lessons.

The distribution of returns in the voting is interesting.  If the S&P is down, say, 15% next year, will we have the opposite negative skew to returns (a fat tail with -50% returns), or have board members mastered catching big upside while avoiding big downside?

To deal with exactly this issue - we have an adjustable target total equity cost (adjusted for dividends since day-1), and a maximum market value forcing a capital repatriation. Within limits, as our MV rises, so does our target equity cost. Proceeds typically not repatriated until 3-6 months after they were raised.

As we prefer concentrated positions, our downside is exposure to multi-year STRINGS of losses of 25-50%+/yr; hence, you aren't selling this to OPM. Our upside is that repatriated capital  (as and when it occurs) pays off mortgages, funds education, capitalizes new opportunities, etc. Immediate benefits, that show up as incremental discretionary cash flow every month.

Works for us, but everyone needs to evolve their own process.
Good luck.

SD



Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gregmal on January 02, 2021, 10:01:29 AM
Ive read in a few places that like 85% of the markets returns occur during something like 10% of its trading days.

This is kind of besides the point, but I believe that quote you always see from CNBC about "you gotta be in the market because the 10 best days account for all of the return in any given year". It's such a cherry-picked fact. When did those trading days occur? Probably during periods of heightened volatility where the market was swinging up and down wildly. So in order to get the best trading days you had to stomach the worst trading days too.

I've never actually looked at this before, but it confirms my suspicion about the "best trading days" garbage CNBC feeds retail investors.

The attachment shows the 2020 trading days ranked in order (by absolute value of returns) and shows you that the best and worst days were clustered around March and April with a few exceptions outside that time.

If you state how much of the market return occurs in a few best days, you also need to state how much of a decline you could have avoided being out of the market for the few worst days to make this assessment more symmetrical.,

yea Im not totally sure and while I find it interesting, I dont totally think its something to read too much into. Just something perhaps to consider. I am almost always 100% or more long and I am almost always positioning my available cash/liquidity to capitalize(market timing I suppose some will call it) on short term opportunity. Can do both I guess. Being out of the market is stupid, as this year showed. In fact, every market downturn has ended up showing this. But its also showed that you need to have liquidity available to really T-up a fat pitch.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: cherzeca on January 02, 2021, 10:04:09 AM
@writser. "This whole work-from-home situation led me to being frustrated and tired too often, which led to some unforced errors and sloppy due diligence."

I have found it harder to do the kind of DD I need to do to satisfy myself on an individual name. could be that I am getting old and tired. or lazy.  there is one situation that I have followed closely for awhile, and working on that name is easy for me...but to start up with another name and do what I should do seems like too much of a chore, and I dont want to do it half-assed.  your comment resonates. why I am mostly equity indexing and going with jockeys that I like.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: perulv on January 02, 2021, 10:11:14 AM
up 79% (in my local currency, NOK). The biggest positive contributors were SEDG (up over 300%, trimmed it multiple times) FSLR (77%) SQM (83%) WAF (81% since I bought in april), biggest negative Aggreko (down 24%).

Right now, it looks like my effort to find renewable-related companies that also fit the quality-company metrics (actually making money, not too much debt, good ROA, decent EV/EBITDA) have paid off. But then again, everything remotely "green" have gone way up, quality or not. While I still believe that decarbonization and all that comes with it (EV, power production, power grid management, storage etc) is "the future", I have not bought any stocks in companies related to that lately because of the crazy pricing. And I must probably realize that a fair part of this years gains are luck, or at least not very reproducible. The gains are mostly due to multiple expansion, not increased earnings.

edit: my strategy for 2021 is pretty much sit on my hands for now. I bought several stocks in the last few months that are not in the "renewable-field", including CIEN, SIMO, INTC (which I have very mixed feelings about). I will buy if (I think) opportunities arise, but some of my worst decisions seems to be immature selling.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Spekulatius on January 02, 2021, 10:15:30 AM
2020:  14%

Historical
2020: 14%
2019: 31%
2018: 11%
2017: 10%
2016: 22%

Largest positive 2020 impact on portfolio:  Griffin Industrial, Charter, IES Holdings, Rosetta Stone, Parkit, Williams, IAC
Largest negative 2020 impact on portfolio:  Black Stone Minerals, Wells Fargo, Hill International

After a good 2019, I was fat, lazy, and unprepared in March, which led to some poor investment decisions, poor portfolio management, and missed opportunities.  Hopefully I've learned a few lessons.

The distribution of returns in the voting is interesting.  If the S&P is down, say, 15% next year, will we have the opposite negative skew to returns (a fat tail with -50% returns), or have board members mastered catching big upside while avoiding big downside?

To deal with exactly this issue - we have an adjustable target total equity cost (adjusted for dividends since day-1), and a maximum market value forcing a capital repatriation. Within limits, as our MV rises, so does our target equity cost. Proceeds typically not repatriated until 3-6 months after they were raised.

As we prefer concentrated positions, our downside is exposure to multi-year STRINGS of losses of 25-50%+/yr; hence, you aren't selling this to OPM. Our upside is that repatriated capital  (as and when it occurs) pays off mortgages, funds education, capitalizes new opportunities, etc. Immediate benefits, that show up as incremental discretionary cash flow every month.

Works for us, but everyone needs to evolve their own process.
Good luck.

SD

On that end, after refinancing my mortgage at 2.75%, I donít think prepaying is a good use of capital right now. I did end up prepaying some of mine at the end of 2019 (we were paying close to 4% back then) because my wife insisted.

I guess itís like everything else - mortgage is a form of leverage (one of the best forms of leverage) and one need to take this in account when considering the overall financial situation. As things stand currently, i just think there are a lot of ways to make better use of capital taking some short term, but little long term risk.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: mattee2264 on January 02, 2021, 10:22:56 AM

 Pretty much a round trip for me. Went into the market crash with too much economic exposure via financials/energy and minimal exposure to Big Tech. Luckily I had quite a bit of dry powder so was able to average down.

 Big winners: JD.com, Freeport McMoMoran, Barrick Gold, EasyJet, Melia
 Big losers: Alliance Data Systems, Liberty Latin America

 Definitely a year of thumbsucking. I was tempted to take a flyer on Bitcoin and Tesla but didn't pull the trigger. I was gearing up to put some money in a broad market index fund but the speed of the rally caught me off balance. And with the cyclicals I wanted to leave some more room to average down in case the winter got really nasty (which it did) but the vaccine developments screwed that up.

 Still have a lot of dry powder so hoping there will be more volatility in 2021.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: JRM on January 02, 2021, 10:24:37 AM
Adjusting for one time mistakes that I don't plan on repeating my (adjusted) returns were well in excess of 100%. 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: james22 on January 02, 2021, 10:54:09 AM
~10%

I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors.


Biggest crisis of the decade but for me it was basically impossible to get into the right frame of mind and find the time to do some serious work.

All returns this year should be considered within context.

I spent a week in the hospital (Corona) and another two quarantined away from my computer in early April - made it impossible to invest my dry powder then.

That's my excuse, anyway.


Sorry for your loss, John. And congrats, writser.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: writser on January 02, 2021, 11:40:16 AM
Adjusting for one time mistakes that I don't plan on repeating my (adjusted) returns were well in excess of 100%.

But even in that case you didn't outperform the MSCI World Mistake Adjusted index. It was up 743.4% last year, as determined on December, 31, after the close. The mistake adjustment committee determined that everybody who was not 100% long Tesla in 2020 made a one-time mistake.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: boilermaker75 on January 02, 2021, 11:42:17 AM
John,

I am so sorry to hear about your younger brother. Way too young.

Mike

Sorry to hear that John. I wish you peace.

Not totally precise calculations yet, but around minus 3 percent for 2020 pre-tax & after fees etc. [, & took the poll accordingly].

I'm tempted to quote Greg and SharperDingaan from the "Happy New Year"-topic here :


Happy New Year to everyone. 2020 wasnt a bad year, it was just a life experience. What doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and wiser. Hopefully 2021 is the start of the Roaring 20s. Cheers

Happy New Year  ..... and fortune and glory to all!
And the end to a rubbish 2020!!

SD


I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors.

On that backdrop, there's no need to complain about minus 3 percent.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Off topic :

Ended the year with a once-in-a-lifetime experience. R.I.P., Little Brother [Passed away December 31st early in the morning, & way too early].


So here, also a huge thank you to Broeb for picking up the baton on this yearly recurring topic.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: thepupil on January 02, 2021, 11:54:37 AM

Quote
2017:

Quote
Taxable 1:    12.5%, (11.2% annualized since 5/2013), this account runs hedged to a max 20% drawdown (via lots of puts), used to short, and owns puts that hedge taxable 2 so it's a little skewed downward but no excuses lol)

Taxable 2:    Whatever unhedged Berkshire did, more or less, no long term performance data, recently opened Fido account

IRA:             18.5%  (22.5% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only

IRA 2            ~16%, Fido account rolled over last year so no long term performance was a 401k in stable value previously

Roth IRA:     16.8%  (17.8% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only


Spent a lot on hedges and margin interest in my taxable (which is fine because that's the plan, I invest 100% of my paycheck in my taxable and borrow from it to fund living expenditures, basically I buy 100% of my takehome in hedged Berkshire. The IRA's underperformed but they are very lumpy and I'm okay with that.

Worst decision was getting rid of ~200 bps of BTC in 2016 "cleaning up portfolio".

2018:

All Interactive Brokers accounts (this is Taxable 1, IRA 1, and Roth consolidated into one performance because I'm lazy now):

1 yr: -2.41% with S&P and ACWI at -4.3% and -9.4%
3 yr: +14.9% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +9.3% and +6.6%
5 yr: +10.2% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +8.5% and +4.3%

Outperformance to S&P for consolidated IBKR accounts. I am US based and heavily biased to the US and real estate/financials.
1 yr: +1.9%
3 yr: +5.6%
5 yr: +1.7%

Oddly, this year (a down year) my best performing account was the taxable account that is levered long (on a cash basis) and pays a fair bit of margin interest but is hedged with puts to a max drawdown. That account was up 4.4%. The 100% long and unhedged accounts were down between 6 and 8%.

Thus far in my investing career, I don't know if I've added much value against the indices in terms of risk adjusted returns. 1/2 of my assets are in non-taxable accounts which makes me less concerned about adding value after taxes. I think my portfolio is less fundamentally risky than the indices but we will only know over time. I know that from 2011-2013 (before opening IBKR accounts) I outperformed by about 20% cumulatively, so this would improve the since inceptions a bit, maybe to like 3-4% outperformance / year.

My Fidelity accounts don't seem to have a readily available performance calculator. I'll have to look into this. IBKR is over 2/3 of assets.

My work 401K (~8% of asset) was all in stable value then all in REIT index as of February/March (which was a profitable trade) then all in EM Index (which has given a little bit of performance back). The sum of that was a +5% return from index/market timing.

2019

Consolidated IBKR account: 22.6%. Got rid of my Fido taxable and rolled that back into IBKR, have another IRA that's all in TGONF (12% or so return) and a work 401K that's completely in Vanguard Emerging Markets, which returned about 18%, so my overall investments did slightly worse than IBKR accounts.

I'd regard this to be a pretty terrible relative result that will more or less wipe away a few years of S&P 500 outperformance. Reasons for underperformance are easy to spot; my biggest positions lagged the market in a big way.

My largest positions (on a notional basis) are hedged Berkshire, hedged VNO, Tetragon Financial, none of which did all that great, all of which I'm excited about continuing to hold. 

Over the past 6.5 years, consolidated IBKR accounts is about 13.3% / year (literally right on top of the S&P 500), which includes a taxable account at 11.5%/year, an IRA at about 14.8% / year and a another IRA at 17.1% / year.

The IRA's have always been super concentrated. The taxable started out long/short and ended up with me just using hedges and call options to limit drawdown rather than shorting.

2020

My IBKR consolidated accounts show a return of -4%. These comprise about 60% of assets.

My ~35% in fidelity accounts performed better, as did the 5% in my wife's Roth IRA which was in VTSAX (ha!). It's difficult to tell their actual performance because of inflows due to rollovers. If I add up all the dollar profits from non IB accounts its about 4% of my ending NW and 2x the IBKR $ losses, so I think overall return is bout 2%

My NW grew about 30% from savings, mortgage amortization, and home price appreciation, which is a consolation prize in a humbling year. Here's to being very levered long SFH and having a good year professionally! (though 10% HPA is not sustainable and will reverse at some point)

I endured a ~40%+ drawdown in the beginning of the year as I went into this very poorly positioned with heavy financials and office exposure. Several of my holdings have not recovered though in my opinion value grew (Berkshire/Tetragon); while others have endured permanent impairment (office). While I recovered, I think that initial drawdown did impact my overall ability to recover more strongly. I'm a bit more timid these days.

My biggest mistakes were in portfolio management. I manage my parents/sister's money and they each outperformed their net exposure (albeit slightly) w/ far lower weighting to tech stocks than the broader market. My own portfolio suffered from undue concentration and premature doubling down in the initial February / March timeline and theirs did not as I run theirs with a greater diversity of idea types and w/ a greater tilt toward business quality.

I can handle missing out on the triple digit gains of the most growthy/tech-y crowd (I know how I'm wired and why I'll never be good at that), but there's no way around it: I completely failed to take advantage of what was one of the better opportunity sets of my short investing career.

May write more detailed analysis of what went wrong at another time.


John, I'm terribly sorry about your brother.

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: clutch on January 02, 2021, 11:59:44 AM
+19% in my TFSA.

Big winners: AMZN, MLHR, U, WORK, RL
Big loser: KEG.UN

Pretty happy with the results. This year I really focused on investing in businesses that (I think) I understand. It really narrowed down to tech and brand names. Also, excluding gains from BTC.

Having said that I have sold all my positions at the end of the year and withdrew the money as we are planning to use the cash to buy a bigger place. Probably won't get back to active stock-picking for a couple of years.

My RRSP has been 80-90% VOO and 10-20% cash. So not much to report from there.

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: DocSnowball on January 02, 2021, 12:33:38 PM
@John Hjorth so sorry for your and your family's loss. May your brother's soul RIP.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: DocSnowball on January 02, 2021, 12:35:32 PM
2020: ~11% pre-tax

Happy with the overall result given the tumultuous year we have had, although being in the field of healthcare could have done much better handling Coronavirus related market movements.

Gradually moved from low six figures to low seven figures from 2016 to 2020. Big positive for me this year has been crystallizing my investment philosophy - moving to asset allocation based for 80% of portfolio (mostly Vanguard and iShares index funds VOO, VEA, VWO, INDA, FXI), and security selection (special situations, healthcare, biotech, educational tech, emerging tech) for 20% of portfolio. IRR returns were reasonably good, but still ended up with 40% cash. High risk aversion and thus inability to remain fully invested, along with Fannie preferreds position, were major drags for 2020 returns.

----------------
Historical:
2019: 21%
2018: -19%
2017: 7%
2016: 192%
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: cherzeca on January 02, 2021, 01:26:15 PM
Not totally precise calculations yet, but around minus 3 percent for 2020 pre-tax & after fees etc. [, & took the poll accordingly].

I'm tempted to quote Greg and SharperDingaan from the "Happy New Year"-topic here :


Happy New Year to everyone. 2020 wasnt a bad year, it was just a life experience. What doesnt kill you, makes you stronger and wiser. Hopefully 2021 is the start of the Roaring 20s. Cheers

Happy New Year  ..... and fortune and glory to all!
And the end to a rubbish 2020!!

SD


I "managed to produce" minus 32.9 percent in about a month [the period February 19th - March 23rd] while being actually mentally incapacitated, not fit & proper and ill, & doing nothing, mostly staying away from the keyboard and my monitors.

On that backdrop, there's no need to complain about minus 3 percent.

- - - o 0 o - - -

Off topic :

Ended the year with a once-in-a-lifetime experience. R.I.P., Little Brother [Passed away December 31st early in the morning, & way too early].


So here, also a huge thank you to Broeb for picking up the baton on this yearly recurring topic.

sorry for your loss John. RIP
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Spekulatius on January 02, 2021, 01:29:59 PM
@John Hjorth so sorry for your and your family's loss. May your brother's soul RIP.

I am sorry to hear this as well. A losing a close relative and particular a brother is a watershed moment.

My thanks to all those who prevent more losses in lives this year @DocSnowball @Dalal.Holding and many others.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: UNF2007 on January 02, 2021, 05:22:33 PM
8% in the actively managed acct according to IBKR, kind of disappointing, given the opportunity set over the year and the numbers others have posted. But I had some extenuating circumstances, got deployed twice once for a 3 month Covid humanitarian mission and then to Kuwait for 3 months during the summer this year. The early deployment really screwed me as that was when everything was on sale and I was more or less out of the game. I keep about 70% of my NW indexed though just as a hedge on my own stupidity.  Going over my moves from the year my biggest mistakes continue to be selling to soon, and sitting on to much cash (maybe lacking conviction in my ideas?).  May start allowing things to run 20-30% above what I think the IV is going forward to capture some of that and correct for overly conservative estimates. 

Couple of trades that were interesting this year and worked out

Bought KODK puts after the run on them entering the pharm ingredient business. Should have done this one at much bigger scale in retrospect.

MSN, Net-net that worked out pretty quickly for unknown reasons, have to give credit to the Value Guys for that idea, again should have done much larger scale.

XPEV and QS- not super proud of these as they are really outside the framework of what I do, basically greater fool EV plays that worked out pretty well, but again I failed to do at large enough scale.

WFC- pretty much lucky timing here, value was so compelling it was hard to ignore. Still own this.

INTC- largest position I currently have, third point getting involved is a plus. Have made this a meaningful position so if it works out will actually have some impact in 2021.




Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: generalsandworkouts on January 02, 2021, 06:09:06 PM
My portfolio is denominated in Australian dollars. I was up 33.22% in 2020, which is my best return to date. I had a lot of luck. My biggest winners were Naked Wines and Haier Smart Home D shares, which I bought in December.

I wrote a more detailed review on my blog if that's the kind of thing that interests you: https://generalsandworkouts.blogspot.com/2021/01/december-portfolio-update-and-2020.html

And sorry to hear about your brother, John. That really sucks.

I hope everyone has a good 2021.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gamecock-YT on January 02, 2021, 06:41:58 PM
@John Hjorth so sorry for your and your family's loss. May your brother's soul RIP.

I am sorry to hear this as well. A loosing a close relative and particular a brother is a watershed moment.

My thanks to all those who prevent more losses in lives this year @DocSnowball @Dalal.Holding and many others.

Agreed.

My condolences, John. I am very close to my younger brother so I can only imagine what you must be going through.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: bizaro86 on January 02, 2021, 06:46:31 PM
I was just over +30% in 2020. The vast majority of my  alpha this year was made in late March when I went from around 75% net long to around 140% net long. Mostly with in-the-money call options on quality businesses (the calls I bought on DIS when it was less than half its current price helped quite a bit). The other big winners were a good size position in TZOO (which I still like) and a special situation trade around the Just Energy restructuring. That one was the largest absolute dollar return on a single trade of my life.

My biggest loser of the year (by far!) was BRK.B. I bought some puts on various things I thought were overleveraged in Jan/Feb. That worked out well, but I closed them too soon. Around the same time, I sold some BRK.B puts (short expirations). Then when they were in the money I rolled them out, and added more to try and make it up. This process ended up with me getting put a huge BRK.B position in the 200s when it was trading considerably lower. I ended up selling most of the excess BRK at pretty low prices. I knew it was low, but wanted to put the money into higher beta names, which ended up being the right call. Still, I'm probably the only person on the board who has BRK as their largest absolute dollar losing position of all time.

IMO this slightly underestimates my true return for the year, as I have a relatively large position in the debt of a firm that went through bankruptcy. The debt no longer trades and the reorg equity I got isn't trading yet, and IB has it marked at an unreasonably low price (imo). So I should get a free boost on next years numbers.

@Writser- I'm sorry to hear this board hasn't been useful for you this year - I have huge respect for you as one of the best posters here. I can relate on the kids front - I made a number of unforced errors due to exhaustion when my kids were little. Mine are 5/6 now and it does get easier.

**lesson learned - you don't need to make it back on the same trade. If I had just closed the BRK and taken the first loss it wouldn't have been that painful. The losses on the roll were brutal. When I finally pulled the cord and reinvested in other stuff at the bottom I made it all back and then some.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gamecock-YT on January 02, 2021, 06:51:18 PM
~12%, which not bad considering I was -10% at mid-year. The inflation trade in the second half of the year kind of bailed me out. Started the year with 63% cash and ended it with roughly the same. Only made one new investment for the year (MO). I expected more fallout with the crash in March and never thought the Fed would pull out the bazooka to deal with things so was behind the curve with putting my war chest to work. A learning experience for sure, I'm being more proactive with whittling down my watchlist to just companies I want to make for 'the long term' and following those companies more closely so can pull the trigger next time there's a big decline in prices.

Big winners: GLIBA/LBRDA, ATUSF, FRMO
Big loser: STNG


2020: 12.0%
2019: 33.0%
2018: -15.5%
2017: 35.0%
2016: 17.3%


Thanks everybody for their continued contributions to the forum. I learn something new every day, which is all anybody can ask for. I'm happy to put 2020 behind me as I'm sure many of you are as well. As someone with a high sense of wanderlust, being confined to home was difficult. Not to mention being stalked by a black bear while hiking by myself was a very unpleasant experience. 

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: JRM on January 02, 2021, 06:53:42 PM
Adjusting for one time mistakes that I don't plan on repeating my (adjusted) returns were well in excess of 100%.

But even in that case you didn't outperform the MSCI World Mistake Adjusted index. It was up 743.4% last year, as determined on December, 31, after the close. The mistake adjustment committee determined that everybody who was not 100% long Tesla in 2020 made a one-time mistake.

Dangit.  I should have indexed.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: CorpRaider on January 02, 2021, 09:53:07 PM
My "Beardstown Ladies Method" annual return for 2020 is 25%.  Did about 6% across the portfolio, but a lot of that is indexed/AA. 

I actually posted a loss of almost 12% in the soon to be renamed Shadenfruede Fund (just an IRA I putz about with and actually track closely). 

In my defense, if you did really well this year, you are very likely a dope.  ;D 

BRK was up ~1.5%; RPV was down ~9%; QQQ was up ~46%; ZM was up ~400%, and that ticker that people thought was Zoom, Inc. but was actually totally another unrelated company was up ~900% (kidding).   
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Fitz on January 02, 2021, 10:57:35 PM
79.9%

winners:
BYDDY - >40% of portfolio
FB
AMZN - march
CLWY
GOOG - march

Some losers -
EAF
FCAU

Flatliners - from my basis
BRK.B
DISCA

15% cash drag
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Viking on January 03, 2021, 01:28:04 AM
John, as others have posted, it was very sad to hear of the passing of your brother. I have two and canít imagine what you are going through. Our thoughts are with you :-)
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Lemsip on January 03, 2021, 05:00:09 AM
9% in USD and 5.65% in GBP.

Happy with that.

Was largely inactive all year ( including in March). Sold down a bit of BRK after the AGM where Buffett appeared spooked. Should've held.

Best performers - NKE, GOOG
Just 2  MKL, DEO had YTD losses.

Positioned OK for next year although have to constantly resist the urge to trim NKE ( approaching 3x from my buy price of $51 in 2017).


Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 03, 2021, 06:34:02 AM
To us capital is just capital.
We are repatriating capital because we either take the $ off the table, or lose it (and more), by doing something stupid in the market. Sure, we could still do something stupid, but paying off mortgages reduces the possibilities, and ensures that we get the benefit of higher discretionary cashflow - and hopefully, more out of life. Defeasement, is a simple technique by which to avoid early repayment penalties.

We are fortunate that with two nephews just starting out, we can repatriate material capital for quite some time.
The downside is that finance/accounting isn't really their interest, so this is a limited term process.
Sadly, there's never a smuggler when you want one!

SD

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: writser on January 03, 2021, 07:16:12 AM
A couple of you sent some nice messages after my last post, thanks for that. It felt good to write down some of my frustrations. But just to be clear: we're all healthy, the kid is awesome and I managed to eke out a small profit. All in all that's damn good for a terrible year like 2020 and I'm pretty much the last person you should feel sympathy for. John deserves that and the countless others who lost loved ones. Not to mention people who got fired, worked their ass off in the hospital, own a small business, etc. This was a terrible year for a lot of people and I was just whining from inside the stock market bubble. Something to keep in mind. Again, my condolences John.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Libs on January 03, 2021, 08:49:08 AM
Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

These were the drivers:

CASH (thx Wabuffo)
XPEL
KNOP (thx Wabuffo)
GBTC
RUTH

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: hillfronter83 on January 03, 2021, 08:51:19 AM
About 16%.
Most of my winners are special events and deep value such as FENG.
I'm very happy with the return especially considering how 2020 unfolded for many people around the world.
John, Really sorry for your loss!
Lastly wish everyone on this board a healthy and happy 2021!
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: gary17 on January 03, 2021, 09:04:15 AM
Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

These were the drivers:

CASH (thx Wabuffo)
XPEL
KNOP (thx Wabuffo)
GBTC
RUTH


I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

Gary

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gregmal on January 03, 2021, 09:14:43 AM
Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

These were the drivers:

CASH (thx Wabuffo)
XPEL
KNOP (thx Wabuffo)
GBTC
RUTH


I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

Gary

One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: cherzeca on January 03, 2021, 09:47:23 AM
Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

These were the drivers:

CASH (thx Wabuffo)
XPEL
KNOP (thx Wabuffo)
GBTC
RUTH


I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

Gary

One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: cherzeca on January 03, 2021, 09:56:45 AM
looking at the poll results, it looks like a normal distribution centered around +10%, turned 90 degrees, which makes sense, except for the outlier...massive number of +50% returns.  while I dont want to harsh anyone's mellow, I think there is a bit too much risk-taking going on...
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: kh812000 on January 03, 2021, 11:31:37 AM
+41% gross / +33% net for year.
Net market exposure ~20% for year so shorts certainly were a big headwind to performance post March drawdown.  Long only return +83% gross.

Biggest drivers:
AMD
1211.HK   aka BYD
3888.HK   aka Kingsoft
NUAN
AAPL

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Liberty on January 03, 2021, 12:17:23 PM
Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Spekulatius on January 03, 2021, 12:33:13 PM
Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended.

I haven’t read the book, but this seems great advice. One thing is sure that happiness doesn’t scale with the money spent.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Gregmal on January 03, 2021, 12:50:07 PM
Gilbert (Harvard Psych prof) in Stumbling upon Happiness writes about how anticipation of owning is more enticing than actually owning. and yet we do like to reward ourselves. consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice. (also given financial/emotional cost of divorce, your best decision is marrying once)

The book 'Stumbling on Happiness' by Gilbert was a huge influence on my life when I read it. It was long ago, but the main points have always stuck with me. Recommended.

I havenít read the book, but this seems great advice. One thing is sure they happiness doesnít scale with the money spent.

Yup. One of the biggest traps is when ones lifestyle scales up with their earnings. People, even of modest means would be retiring 10-20 years sooner if they just stuck with what they needed and maybe a few toys and were content. The biggest ceiling facing middle America, IMO, is needing to recycle into a new $600 a month car payment every 3 years. That $7200 a year over 25 years, even if you suck at investing and only did 5%, is nearly $400k...Same thing to a degree, albeit with other nuances, with housing.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: SharperDingaan on January 03, 2021, 01:27:15 PM
Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

These were the drivers:

CASH (thx Wabuffo)
XPEL
KNOP (thx Wabuffo)
GBTC
RUTH


I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

Gary

Long time ago I lived in Calgary - and saw the impact of the first oil bust on the city and the surrounding community. Countless people, very good at what they do, losing everything, and quite a few suicides. Since then the same thing has largely repeated every downturn, but the message has remained very clear. Even in a civilized country you can lose everything tomorrow, and a great many people still do.

There are NO old, bold, bush-pilots. However, there ARE old bush-pilots - but they are ALL very good risk managers, both tactical and strategic. Most of them got to be old by executing on plans today, that made them less at risk tomorrow. During WWII Munger routinely did exactly this, day after day: never sending pilots through weather systems that would ice wings, and destabilize flight.

SD
 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: thowed on January 03, 2021, 01:32:35 PM
About 16% in US$.  What a year.  My hedges meant I slept OK in March, but unfortunately I didn't take advantage enough of the volatility.  I hope that it's taught me to have a better plan if it happened again (though easier said than done...).

I try to be long-term buy and hold, but finally sold a few things I considered mistakes.  One has already pinged up since I sold... but I hope that I've replaced them with things that will do better over 10 years.

Japan did well for me (a mix of small-cap value, and quality mid-cap growth).

I bulked up the China exposure a fair bit - large and mid-cap growth stuff.  It's a bit 'EM consensus', but there are some great companies there if you can pick through the governance pitfalls, and the Macro Growth seems to be there (if not quite what it used to be).

I reduced Vietnam - I think it's a wonderful macro story, but struggle to find outstanding funds (I haven't managed to get a brokerage account - too fiddly for me).  There are a handful of great companies, though most are at Foreign Ownership Limits, so you'll pay a premium to buy them (except perhaps in very small quantities).  Performance has been frustrating for the past few years, as ASEAN hasn't been very popular, but I hope it'll come back soon, as things are generally cheap with amazing growth opportunities.

I increased UK exposure - mainly via owning a stake in an Akre-style listed fund management co.  I'm hoping the UK will come good next year now that Brexit's 'done' - though it's not really finished, and the vaccination set-up seems to be a mess.

And finally I increased US exposure - again (yawn) quality stuff like Ansys and Fortinet, stuff that's punchy for me, but I feel comfortable with the cash flow & management - I wasn't brave enough (or alternatively, early enough) to do the more hardcore tech stuff like PAR, NET etc.

Gregmal was the person who I learned most from this year - thank you for your insightful thoughts - it made me think much more 'open-mindedly' about valuations etc., as I'm normally very conservative.  I haven't bought Tesla or Bitcoin, but would probably buy the latter if it corrects.  I hope also to be more receptive to stories like SEA i.e. monsters that haven't made profits yet at punchy valuations.  I think it's important to know what sort of investor you are, and I don't think I'll ever be a 'trader', but I hope to keep learning and expand my options a little.

Condolences to John Hjorth.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: gary17 on January 03, 2021, 02:54:06 PM
Up 48% in 2020; 15% CAGR since 2005. We unexpectedly hit critical financial mass in 2020. We no longer need to work, although we have no plans to stop either. To see your NW vault like this is surreal. Then again I'm 59, so the snowball has been rolling a long time.

I feel no small measure of survivor's guilt over all of this, given how brutal COVID has been for many.

2020 was mostly just good cloning. Contrary to another poster, I find this site a gold mine of ideas.

These were the drivers:

CASH (thx Wabuffo)
XPEL
KNOP (thx Wabuffo)
GBTC
RUTH


I share this same view with you - at 38 , I am at where I thought where I would need to be at 50 and so this has changed my view about what to do next - keep working or buy a nice big house so as to keep me motivated to keep working (i.e., pay off a new big mortgage). 

I know this is like a real first world problem in a COVID year, so I am just thankful to have this problem instead of other kinds...     

Gary

Long time ago I lived in Calgary - and saw the impact of the first oil bust on the city and the surrounding community. Countless people, very good at what they do, losing everything, and quite a few suicides. Since then the same thing has largely repeated every downturn, but the message has remained very clear. Even in a civilized country you can lose everything tomorrow, and a great many people still do.

There are NO old, bold, bush-pilots. However, there ARE old bush-pilots - but they are ALL very good risk managers, both tactical and strategic. Most of them got to be old by executing on plans today, that made them less at risk tomorrow. During WWII Munger routinely did exactly this, day after day: never sending pilots through weather systems that would ice wings, and destabilize flight.

SD

thx SD and others for the wisdom / thoughts.  I am in fact thinking the risk adverse thing to do is to significantly exit the stock market and use the winnings to buy a nicer home in vancouvwr. Same mortgage. just change of asset class - and in slow times, having dirt that i can use is probably better than paper loss thatís useless :)
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: cameronfen on January 03, 2021, 03:24:56 PM
I'm about 15-20%.  Don't know exactly as I have a few special situations that fidelity still counts as a loss until they pay out.  Altogether a good year.  I'm too busy to check my portfolio too often so I can't do all the trading stuff, special situations that require paying attention like what @gregmal, @writser etc. suggest.  I've tried and usually I get too busy to pay attention so I end up losing money because I forget some deadline or don't act on some news :-X .  Alternatively you can get higher returns by buying the bubble.  Although I buy quite a bit of tech, I'm not discussing that...
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: james22 on January 03, 2021, 05:01:52 PM
The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

consider a routine where there is one small thing a day that is not costly but that you consider a splurge, say a cappuccino instead of a coffee, and likewise one thing a week, say a nicer dinner than the other six evenings, etc. Your cost structure can stay low without feeling too much sacrifice.

Andrew Tobias: The key to happiness is living well beneath your means and enjoying infrequent highly-targeted splurges. 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Xerxes on January 03, 2021, 05:43:32 PM
Here is mine -- all in registered accounts (so no taxes).
% net of commission paid + dividends

RRSP --- ~7% gain y-o-y
TFSA --- 63% gain y-o-y

note1: my RRSP is 3 time larger than TFSA
note2: USD/CAD was more or less stable year over year
-----------------------------------------
RRSP
During the down turn in Q2 2020, I bought BRK, FFH and BAM more than anything else. My outdated view was that the trio as investor/capital-allocators would salivate in a market dislocation. I was humbled. All three were incapacitated for different reasons, discussed in depth in this forum endlessly.

That said, my view is that these planted seeds will blossom in 2021. The trio make up 40% of my RRSP portfolio at current prices.

I also added to RTX/L3 later in June.

My main gains that offset the losses and put me in the black were primarily due to y-o-y gains in:
-Amazon
-Tencent
-Walt Disney
-Alphabet
-Alibaba (was doing well till it went down)

These five make up 35% of my RRSP portfolio at current prices. 

Interestingly, i did not add/remove anything to the 5 names above in 2019-20. It seems doing nothing helped me! On the other hand, I had shamefully sold Nvidia on March 23, at about $212. My cost was $125-130. The rest is history.

I think selling Nvidia at exactly wrong time, helped my overall gain be limited to 7% compares to S&P500's 15%. With 25% of S&P500 being made up of the FAANGs, one cannot afford in selling a tech name at the wrong time.

That said, my view is that i got the FFH/BRK/BAM/RTX/L3 vs. the rest of 495 companies in the S&P500 (beyound the FAANG), and that the seeds I have planted will blossom.

-----------------------------------------
TFSA
Most of my gains were due to Lightspeed, IAC and Uber etc., melting up like it is 1999.


Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: thowed on January 04, 2021, 03:28:18 AM
Xerxes - I sold some tech on about March 23 too!  I cringe to think of it now.  Psychology is powerful! 

My (blurred) memory is that amidst the volatility buffeting I just felt that things were going to go down more, and so I'd sell and buy back later.  Maybe I have to try and remember this next time I feel this way, and remind myself that it could mark the bottom!

Overall though, I am happier with the quality of my portfolio now, which I think is important - hopefully this will help me to not sell anything if things were to plunge again, but just gradually add on the way down, as I should have done.

I'm going to try to 'rub my nose in it' until I hopefully learn something!
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: CorpRaider on January 04, 2021, 05:11:07 AM
100% agree with you about the housing and transport Greg.  Wish I had figured that out a car or two earlier.   ;D
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Xaston on January 04, 2021, 06:54:02 AM
54.3% which is definitely my best year of results.  2008 was my first year in the market.

 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: DeepSouth on January 04, 2021, 09:36:22 AM
2016: 18%
2017: 40%
2018: -12%
2019: 30%
2020: 27%

Notable winners
Wayfair @ $30
PSH
GBTC
ALSK - small telco M&A, caught CBB as well last year, looking at couple levered names on this theme
PNTG - well run home heath nursing spin off
CPPMF - levered Canada copper miner with improving operations, cheap at current copper prices

Losers:
BMYRT

some 2021 positions
MSFT as blue chip play
BMY low multiple with visibility on multiyear earnings growth
OPCH as leading home infusion play
CNR as levered housing play

Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: willie2013 on January 04, 2021, 11:17:14 AM
+98 % in taxable account
BYD
Wayfair
StoneCo
Fairfax India
RP buyout
401 K was BRKA all year so total return +52%
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: rolling on January 07, 2021, 03:27:33 AM
Unfortunately calculating my returns is harder than in previous years. Drawdowns and a broker change being the main reason. Anyway, I will post my estimate for my worst year ever (nominal returns). If I can I will try to post more trustworthy returns

2ndhalf 2011 and 2012:  20%
2013: 30%
2014: 50%
2015: less 5%
2016: 50%
2017: 160-170%
2018: 11% (It seems it was 6% if I exclude an year end wuote manipulation, but I will take the 11% because it is easier to do the math and the 2019 return will adust for that)
2019: 0.6% (I had to use 02/01/2020 quote due to year end portfolio movements, return would have been sligtly lower, probably around zero)
2020: likely about less 35%

Results are in euro, before taxes but after all other costs.

Notes:
- a very big drawdown after a down year will make it harder to recover to previous levels

- remaining portfolio is highly concentrated in just 2 very iliquid stocks. Thankfully year end news were good for both companies and one of them is already up quite a bit. I expected even better news by now, but COVID makes everything slower, so I will have to wait. I continue with good expectations for both so I don't mind iliquidity: I probably will want to hold both for years anyway.

- being a father at year end 2017 and again in the first half 2019 seems to have impacted returns. I don't think there is a coincidence. For future reference, I suggest everyone to index when they have small kids (especially if you have two in a row).
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: villainx on January 07, 2021, 07:38:46 AM
looking at the poll results, it looks like a normal distribution centered around +10%, turned 90 degrees, which makes sense, except for the outlier...massive number of +50% returns.  while I dont want to harsh anyone's mellow, I think there is a bit too much risk-taking going on...

I attribute my 2020 to luck.  Basically, largest position was in a good tech fruit stock.  And NOT messing around too much when things went good/bad. 

I also found this board very helpful with idea generations. 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: flesh on January 07, 2021, 07:38:57 AM
52% Personal, 68% retirement IRA's, retirement was more invested throughout. Short version, traded march-june mainly, no margin. Next, went all in brk, holding just a couple others as well, at 178 10% of which was OOM Calls which were subsequently sold for a quick 55%. Basically did nothing after brk, told my partner to let me know if the brk price went up or down 20% and forgot about stocks.

Big winners,

HCA at 65
ADS at 22
TSE at 20
Kbh at 12
kbe at 27
oln at 11
kkr at 18
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: rkbabang on January 07, 2021, 08:16:51 AM
My stock holdings for 2020:  60.21%

   Holdings that did well (in no particular order):  AYRWF, FSLY, AAPL, AMZN, SHOP, TTD, SE, SWAV, TRUP, TRRSF, APPN, AAXN, UI, SDGR, WFCF

Crypto holdings in 2020:  329.48%  and up another 39.08% YTD in 2021.  As of today my crypto holdings are about 29% of my total stock/crypto portfolio.  BTC is now my largest holding of any type.

   Holdings mostly BTC, ETH, XMR, XTZ
 
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: rkbabang on January 07, 2021, 08:40:04 AM
One of the best moves Ive made in my life(I like to think Ive made a bunch!) by far, was simply buying a reasonable sized house that I could see myself raising my kids in and living in for 30 years, at the age of 25. Its only 3,000 sq ft so every now and again I ponder what it would be like to have a gargantuan waterfront home or something like that...but at the end of the day, having a manageable housing cost is a tremendous advantage. Same with cars. Ive had nice cars but after a month its just another thing that gets you from A to B. After 6 months you dont care about it and $100+ oil changes and $200 a piece tires drive you insane, the same as your homes property tax bill-which never declines and always seems to outstrip inflation. The lower your recurring/fixed home+auto costs the more freedom you will have in life, or so Ive found.

I agree with you, I down sized from 4000+ sqft to 3000 sq ft 5 years ago and I always drive my cars 10 years or more.  I just bought a Lexus GX this year as well as a Forester, but I won't buy another car for a decade or more.  There will be no $600/mo car payments.  I did have a chuckle at your comment about the "only 3000 sq ft" house though.  I grew up in a house that was about 700 sq ft with one bathroom smaller than one of my closets in my house now.  Even though I've lived in larger, I still think of my 3000 sq ft house with 4 bd, 3.5 baths and 3 car garage as massive and unnecessarily extravagant.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: fareastwarriors on January 07, 2021, 12:16:35 PM
~up 68%.
pure luck.

Mostly TSLA...Trimmed multiple times last year but still became the largest position. Now I'm just sitting on it even though it's ridiculously priced.

Made an offer on a house last week. If I had won, I would've trimmed more TSLA to pay for down payment, but I didn't win the offer.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: NewbieD on January 11, 2021, 07:28:33 AM
I was up 138% in SEK. A little more in USD. End march I was down -25% or so.

Best year I had since I started tracking in 2012. Now up ca 2500% since 2012-01. Traded quite actively since Covid. Had some big winners related to online gambling in the US in Kindred, Net Ent, Evolution Gaming, Kambi. Also made a big purchase in a Real Estate stock that tanked when the CEO was investigated for insider trading which I judged to be immaterial to values that worked out (SBB B in Stockholm).

Condolences to John and anyone else who've had tough years in the health & family departments. My old man with cancer tackled covid well and found a good treatment which is a relief since we fairly recently lost my mom to another cancer way too young.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: lnofeisone on January 11, 2021, 08:10:08 AM
I clocked in around 11% for the year and I'm up that much in the first 10 days. Got really pounded by my energy concentration and WFC (which made a strong late comeback and is up remarkably in January). Got bailed out by AVLR, ZM, TSLA, and ETH.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: compoundvalue on January 11, 2021, 11:57:34 PM
~ -5% (a bit hard to track as across a few accounts with inflows and outflows). Sold a few risky things in March and April that have tripled or quadrupled since and concentrated around 5-6 names that did well since but not as well (most significantly WFC). Should have probably sat on my hands in March and April
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Castanza on January 14, 2021, 06:27:54 AM
33% (Switched Brokers so + or - a 1%)

Sold a handful of positions way too early (UPS), but also had some great luck with options this past year.

RTX, GOOG (options), PNC, TPL, and a few others were my top plays. I built up my portfolio with a lot of value (imo) so I'm hoping to see some benefit in the coming years.
Title: Re: COBF 2020 Returns (pre-tax, after fees, etc)
Post by: Dynamic on January 16, 2021, 12:08:04 PM
I answered with my -6.03% native currency GBP return (-3.42% in USD) underperforming SP500 Total Return index by -21.82% in 2020.

My downside estimate (which long-term tracks IV rather than price - hence labelling it USD_IV below) shows a +32.39% increase in USD at year end in USD. 2019's value was depressed thanks to a merger arb still in play in 2019 with high exposure and substantial low-likelihood downside if held to the merger date. I've rated 2020 YE downside as very low.
The geometric averages over 5 years show my total compound return is in the ballpark of my compound change in IV/downside - about 14% less downside now than at 2015 YE.

YEAR GBPret USDret SP500TR Outperf GBP_IV USD_IV
2020 -6.03% -3.42%  18.40% -21.82% 27.67% 32.39%
2019 13.59% 18.02%  31.49% -13.46%  1.81%  8.36%
2018 32.95% 25.30%  -4.38%  29.69% 43.74% 40.88%
2017 14.14% 24.83%  21.83%   2.99% -2.19% 12.72%
2016 54.19% 24.16%  11.96%  12.20% 48.90% 19.09%
================================================
5yAv 19.58% 17.23%  15.21%   2.02% 22.74% 20.39%
================================================