Author Topic: CoBF members 2018 returns  (Read 15724 times)

Rod

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2019, 08:41:33 AM »
Well, I did worse than any of you: -9.1%. Being almost entirely in small cap Canadian stocks didn't help this year!


thepupil

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2019, 08:51:36 AM »
2017:

Quote
Taxable 1:    12.5%, (11.2% annualized since 5/2013), this account runs hedged to a max 20% drawdown (via lots of puts), used to short, and owns puts that hedge taxable 2 so it's a little skewed downward but no excuses lol)

Taxable 2:    Whatever unhedged Berkshire did, more or less, no long term performance data, recently opened Fido account

IRA:             18.5%  (22.5% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only

IRA 2            ~16%, Fido account rolled over last year so no long term performance was a 401k in stable value previously

Roth IRA:     16.8%  (17.8% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only


Spent a lot on hedges and margin interest in my taxable (which is fine because that's the plan, I invest 100% of my paycheck in my taxable and borrow from it to fund living expenditures, basically I buy 100% of my takehome in hedged Berkshire. The IRA's underperformed but they are very lumpy and I'm okay with that.

Worst decision was getting rid of ~200 bps of BTC in 2016 "cleaning up portfolio".

2018:

All Interactive Brokers accounts (this is Taxable 1, IRA 1, and Roth consolidated into one performance because I'm lazy now):

1 yr: -2.41% with S&P and ACWI at -4.3% and -9.4%
3 yr: +14.9% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +9.3% and +6.6%
5 yr: +10.2% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +8.5% and +4.3%

Outperformance to S&P for consolidated IBKR accounts. I am US based and heavily biased to the US and real estate/financials.
1 yr: +1.9%
3 yr: +5.6%
5 yr: +1.7%

Oddly, this year (a down year) my best performing account was the taxable account that is levered long (on a cash basis) and pays a fair bit of margin interest but is hedged with puts to a max drawdown. That account was up 4.4%. The 100% long and unhedged accounts were down between 6 and 8%.

Thus far in my investing career, I don't know if I've added much value against the indices in terms of risk adjusted returns. 1/2 of my assets are in non-taxable accounts which makes me less concerned about adding value after taxes. I think my portfolio is less fundamentally risky than the indices but we will only know over time. I know that from 2011-2013 (before opening IBKR accounts) I outperformed by about 20% cumulatively, so this would improve the since inceptions a bit, maybe to like 3-4% outperformance / year.

My Fidelity accounts don't seem to have a readily available performance calculator. I'll have to look into this. IBKR is over 2/3 of assets.

My work 401K (~8% of asset) was all in stable value then all in REIT index as of February/March (which was a profitable trade) then all in EM Index (which has given a little bit of performance back). The sum of that was a +5% return from index/market timing.









« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 09:33:14 AM by thepupil »

John Hjorth

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2019, 09:26:24 AM »
I just added the poll. -Please take it! [ : - ) ]

- - - o 0 o - - -

Maximum votes per user: 1,
Run the poll for : 90 days,
Allow users to change vote: Yes,
Result visibility : Show the poll's results to anyone.

- - - o 0 o - - -

I hope I haven't screwed up anything here.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 09:29:59 AM by John Hjorth »
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Fat Pitch

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2019, 10:38:50 AM »
Well the starting portfolio in 2017 was roughly 75k USD then factor in the taxes and you'll be at ~1/3rd of that number.

As for finding opportunities there's 2 ways to look at it. If I continue to fish around the same holes I've been doing then yes the capital becomes a drag. On the other hand now I have capital to fund a developer team to grab the market opportunity that many aren't seeing at the moment so now I become the market in a way. Blockchain infrastructure is unlocking new ways to do business and provide a better experience for the user, but you gotta find your spots.

There's always the traditional capital markets, but putting in the effort to get +7% alpha over the S&P500 index is horrible ROI on time invested when you consider the greenfield opportunity.

~700% for the year. 20% allocation in applications building on blockchain infrastructure knocked it out of the park. Not much alpha from stocks this year (3%).

LOL. Get me some of this.

That’s also after 12000% last year so is this year humbling after a year like that? The portfolio must be well over a $100m now. Is that making it harder to find opportunity?
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flesh

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #24 on: January 01, 2019, 10:40:07 AM »
Sad year for me. First year of under performance -10%. Peak for year was plus 16%.

I've had times mid year where I was under performing as poorly and that was
when it would have been a great time to buy my portfolio.

Either I'm more wrong than usual or I should have a great 2019.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 10:39:44 PM by flesh »

Viking

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #25 on: January 01, 2019, 11:03:05 AM »
Finished the year at -3.7%; first negative year in last 15. Not a great year to be way overweight US banks. Could have been much worse. The silver lining is there are many well run and profitable companies trading at what look to be very readonable valuations (which bodes well for 2019 returns).

My big learning is to pay a little more attention to where we are in the economic cycle and modify my portfolio accordingly. My guess is the volatility we saw in 2018 will continue into 2019. The big changes are:
1.) on strength (when market gets optomistic) build cash
2.) on weakness (when market gets pessimistic) buy best in class large caps

John Hjorth

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #26 on: January 01, 2019, 11:05:51 AM »
... Since my core holdings are now much cheaper than they were before, i actually feel much richer than I was, since I now have more upside and less downside on those holdings.
... Either I'm more wrong than usual or I should have a great 2019.

rolling & flesh,

You are mentally faithful to yourselves [never forget that!] - I certainly hope it stays that way! -I feel confident, that you'll do great going forward!
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DanielGMask

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #27 on: January 01, 2019, 11:32:45 AM »
+0.20% before dividends.
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Gamecock-YT

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #28 on: January 01, 2019, 11:46:36 AM »
-15.5% took a hit with commodity/energy stocks turning over in 2H18. Only positions liquidated were ASFI after the special dividend and some short term bond ETFs which I used to add to my commodity positions during the declines. Current equity allocation is 37% cable, 37% commodities (non energy), 23% energy, 3% financials. Still sitting on ~55% cash and short term treasuries.


2017: 35.0%
2016: 17.3%

SHDL

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Re: CoBF members 2018 returns
« Reply #29 on: January 01, 2019, 11:49:10 AM »
For the last 5 years (USD, pre-tax, including both stocks and bonds and derivatives):

2018:  -15%
2017:  +75%
2016:  +43%
2015:  -7%
2014:  +19%

This was actually the first time I bothered aggregating across investment accounts.  Statistically speaking, I guess this is what a finance professor would deride as a “no alpha, crazy high beta portfolio.”   

Anyway, 2018 went like this.  I entered the year with a few big positions I bought in previous years that had done very well and no longer seemed undervalued.  I didn’t sell, and watched them go down 20-50%.  In the meantime my quantitative value trades did pretty well and softened the blow.  But it looks like I still underperformed most of you guys (especially Fat Pitch)!
« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 12:06:44 PM by SHDL »