Author Topic: CoBF members 2019 returns  (Read 9546 times)

Viking

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #20 on: January 01, 2020, 12:44:15 PM »
9.4% (about 12% ex currency as the CAN$ appreciated versus US$). Very happy with return as I had very high cash balances for much of the year :-)


thepupil

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #21 on: January 01, 2020, 01:38:10 PM »
Quote
2017:

Quote
Taxable 1:    12.5%, (11.2% annualized since 5/2013), this account runs hedged to a max 20% drawdown (via lots of puts), used to short, and owns puts that hedge taxable 2 so it's a little skewed downward but no excuses lol)

Taxable 2:    Whatever unhedged Berkshire did, more or less, no long term performance data, recently opened Fido account

IRA:             18.5%  (22.5% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only

IRA 2            ~16%, Fido account rolled over last year so no long term performance was a 401k in stable value previously

Roth IRA:     16.8%  (17.8% annualized since 10/2013), concentrated long only


Spent a lot on hedges and margin interest in my taxable (which is fine because that's the plan, I invest 100% of my paycheck in my taxable and borrow from it to fund living expenditures, basically I buy 100% of my takehome in hedged Berkshire. The IRA's underperformed but they are very lumpy and I'm okay with that.

Worst decision was getting rid of ~200 bps of BTC in 2016 "cleaning up portfolio".

2018:

All Interactive Brokers accounts (this is Taxable 1, IRA 1, and Roth consolidated into one performance because I'm lazy now):

1 yr: -2.41% with S&P and ACWI at -4.3% and -9.4%
3 yr: +14.9% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +9.3% and +6.6%
5 yr: +10.2% / annum with S&P and ACWI at +8.5% and +4.3%

Outperformance to S&P for consolidated IBKR accounts. I am US based and heavily biased to the US and real estate/financials.
1 yr: +1.9%
3 yr: +5.6%
5 yr: +1.7%

Oddly, this year (a down year) my best performing account was the taxable account that is levered long (on a cash basis) and pays a fair bit of margin interest but is hedged with puts to a max drawdown. That account was up 4.4%. The 100% long and unhedged accounts were down between 6 and 8%.

Thus far in my investing career, I don't know if I've added much value against the indices in terms of risk adjusted returns. 1/2 of my assets are in non-taxable accounts which makes me less concerned about adding value after taxes. I think my portfolio is less fundamentally risky than the indices but we will only know over time. I know that from 2011-2013 (before opening IBKR accounts) I outperformed by about 20% cumulatively, so this would improve the since inceptions a bit, maybe to like 3-4% outperformance / year.

My Fidelity accounts don't seem to have a readily available performance calculator. I'll have to look into this. IBKR is over 2/3 of assets.

My work 401K (~8% of asset) was all in stable value then all in REIT index as of February/March (which was a profitable trade) then all in EM Index (which has given a little bit of performance back). The sum of that was a +5% return from index/market timing.

2019

Consolidated IBKR account: 22.6%. Got rid of my Fido taxable and rolled that back into IBKR, have another IRA that's all in TGONF (12% or so return) and a work 401K that's completely in Vanguard Emerging Markets, which returned about 18%, so my overall investments did slightly worse than IBKR accounts.

I'd regard this to be a pretty terrible relative result that will more or less wipe away a few years of S&P 500 outperformance. Reasons for underperformance are easy to spot; my biggest positions lagged the market in a big way.

My largest positions (on a notional basis) are hedged Berkshire, hedged VNO, Tetragon Financial, none of which did all that great, all of which I'm excited about continuing to hold. 

Over the past 6.5 years, consolidated IBKR accounts is about 13.3% / year (literally right on top of the S&P 500), which includes a taxable account at 11.5%/year, an IRA at about 14.8% / year and a another IRA at 17.1% / year.

The IRA's have always been super concentrated. The taxable started out long/short and ended up with me just using hedges and call options to limit drawdown rather than shorting.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 01:42:58 PM by thepupil »

kdk77

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #22 on: January 01, 2020, 04:32:11 PM »
32%.  Major positions in BAC, Google, Microsoft. 

deleuze68

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #23 on: January 01, 2020, 09:40:46 PM »
Just a shade under 20% for me. First year since 2011 I underperformed the major indexes. Held anywhere between 10 and 25% cash for the year but mostly was held back by a few big mistakes coupled with deep value stocks really lagging.

kab60

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #24 on: January 02, 2020, 01:53:39 AM »
2019: 23 pct.
2018: -6,5 pct.
2017: 18,5 pct.
2016: 45 pct
2015: 12,5 pct.

My biggest positions by far going into the year, Alliance Data Systems and Linamar, really hurt compared relative to the indices.

But I doubled my position in Linamar around the bottom and got a nice rebound year end, and I also had some decent trading around Spectrum Brands, GTN and ETM as well as some very welltimed picks in the UK in the autumn (Motorpoint, Clipper Logistics, Cambria Automobiles, Vertu Motors, St. James Place). Dropped some losers like Walgreens and Molson Coors for Altria which also helped. Overall quiet satisfied, but I'm still trying to find my feet as an investor, and it's very humbling to underperform the indices.

Dynamic

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #25 on: January 02, 2020, 02:05:41 AM »
I answered +15%-<+20% on a USD basis (+18.02% return) - which is the currency I focus on, but I was +13.59% in home currency GBP terms (which has been a rollercoaster currency since mid 2016!). Probably paying the price for coming into 2019 on the back of a sharp uptick in the last week of 2018 that helped me outperform the market that year. Also, a concentrated portfolio is a double-edged sword!

Biggest error of omission in 2019 - setting my AAPL buy price around $135 (with a target of about 25% portfolio exposure) in January and thus missing the ride from $142 to $292 (though I thought I had a better alternative prospect, unless the price reached about $135, which didn't pan out as well). I have ample indirect exposure via Berkshire anyway, which will eventually be reflected in Berkshire's price. I lagged the SP500TR by -13.46% overall in 2019.

Did very nicely on BAC position around 10% of portfolio over whole year plus some covered put/call writing, but otherwise lagged the market mainly due to BRK.B coming into 2019 fairly high after a strong 2018 and coming out fairly low after KHC write-downs and general pessimism and down-rating of its multiple despite what looks like a pretty strong year fundamentally, especially Q4 by my estimations.

4 years of more active management:

2019: +18.02% USD / +13.59% GBP / -13.46% vs SP500TR
2018: +25.30% USD / +32.95% GBP / +29.69% vs SP500TR
2017: +24.83% USD / +14.14% GBP / +2.99% vs SP500TR
2016: +24.16% USD / +54.19% GBP / +12.20% vs SP500TR

4-yr cagr: +23.35% USD / +27.45% GBP / +8.92% vs SP500TR

Prior to 2016, was much more passively managed with little cash added since 2003 and very few trades made. Overall estimated IRR since 2003-ish weighted according to timings of added cashflows ~=
XIRR: +13.17% USD / +14.47% GBP / +2.22% vs SP500TR.

XIRR includes all frictional costs including witholding tax on US dividends, but not capital gains tax, though a small capital gains tax bill will soon be due on 6 Apr 2018 -5 Apr 2019 tax year's unsheltered gains, which exceeded the combined generous UK CGT allowances of myself and my spouse for the first time but is only taxed at 10% of gains above that, or 20% maximum if we gain enough to put us into the top tax bracket. Most of portfolio had previously been tax-sheltered in ISA and unsheltered gains within CGT limits. XIRR also based on approximate reconstructed valuations in early 2003, some historical prices not being available to me due to old investments being taken private. If I include 1999-2003, I had losses before I really understood GARP/value investing that would reduce my outperformance modestly.

Notional SP500TR comparison assumes I bought or sold at total-return index closing price on days when cash was added to or removed from brokerage accounts (but not when transferred between them) and assuming no frictional costs such as tax on dividend distributions.

Spekulatius

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #26 on: January 02, 2020, 03:39:08 AM »
I have various accounts and my overall estimate is close to 30% return. Stock picking was so so, but some trading around (DD, CTVA, NOW, AMZN etc) really helped. The setup this year was pretty good with the decline in fall 2018, similar to 2015. If I could settle this year for an 8% return, I would take it.
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hillfronter83

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #27 on: January 02, 2020, 04:34:01 AM »
Did around 18% overall. Interesting that my taxable account where I did less trading was up about 40%. In hinder sight, made several unforced errors trying to "speculate" for quick profits that backfired.

This board certainly made investing a lot more fun. Thanks and wish everyone good luck in 2020!

Dynamic

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #28 on: January 02, 2020, 06:57:27 AM »
I find it interesting that in most years, the mode and median of the distribution of returns from the voting histogram appear to be (currently) very close to the S&P500 Total Return, with a fair spread above and below and a few notable outliers with very high or very low returns in an individual year. This gives some confidence that this anonymous self-reporting is relatively close to reality. I think I've noticed relatively similar things in previous years' polls.

Obviously, it's relatively rare to consistently beat the market by more than 5% or 10% year after year (one or two bins in the histogram), but 5-10% annually represents an enormous outperformance over a decade or two, so it doesn't mean that CoBF members don't tend to beat the market by a lot in the long run.

We have a lot of people making different decisions, with different time horizons and strategies, some who pay no attention to market price from year to year, and we tend to be pretty well clustered around the market return and close to normally distributed. I suspect a lot of that expected randomness is caused by the relatively short time span of 1-year where the random walk of market multiples and sentiment is more dominant than any long-term outperformance trend. If people had a record of their 3-year, 5-year or 10-year market value returns, I suspect we'd only then start to see whether CoBF members have a marked advantage or disadvantage compared to the market, though then the methodology can also influence the returns reported (e.g. how do you account for money added or removed from the portfolio or for dividends). I know one or two of the members here don't track it, and are quite content with just a vague estimate for their returns, which they continue to knock out of the park by such a margin that dividends and cash movements really don't matter.

It would also be interesting to see if the spread is tighter over longer time-frames and whether there are consistent outliers who regularly post 35%+ annualised returns or more or whether most of the 1-year outliers are highly concentrated and volatile, alternating randomly between +50% and -30% and end up averaging closer to market returns in the longer term.

Jurgis

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Re: CoBF members 2019 returns
« Reply #29 on: January 02, 2020, 08:02:46 AM »
If people had a record of their 3-year, 5-year or 10-year market value returns, I suspect we'd only then start to see whether CoBF members have a marked advantage or disadvantage compared to the market, though then the methodology can also influence the returns reported (e.g. how do you account for money added or removed from the portfolio or for dividends). I know one or two of the members here don't track it, and are quite content with just a vague estimate for their returns, which they continue to knock out of the park by such a margin that dividends and cash movements really don't matter.

It would also be interesting to see if the spread is tighter over longer time-frames and whether there are consistent outliers who regularly post 35%+ annualised returns or more or whether most of the 1-year outliers are highly concentrated and volatile, alternating randomly between +50% and -30% and end up averaging closer to market returns in the longer term.

You can start a 3/5/10 year return poll.  ;)

My previous simplified polls:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index-5-years/msg260236/#msg260236
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index/

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